How can we tell whether a downturn is just a normal part of a solid bull market, or the beginning of a major downdraft? We need to have a way to identify when long-term trends are changing.
One way to guard against being caught on the opposite side of a trend is to apply technical indicators that can isolate major trend shifts and reduce psychological biases....
Good morning! Inflation in Asia is soaring and the tragic energy crisis in Europe is becoming more visible to american markets.
In the SPX option complex gamma imbalance is widening, but mainly due to price and VIX factors, not positioning (big investors still only moderately hedged).
This increases the risk of another leg lower, and focus will now be on the...
SPX hits 4.618 perfectly after a massive 12 year rally .
The question is where does the SPX bottom? , best case scenario we bottom at the 2.618 and worst case the 1.618, we have been here before , we have to go back in time to 1987.
Does it look familiar?, we have a very similar looking price structure. From 1968 to 1974 we created this double top structure...
Last break out looks like it might have been a big fake out. Typically I'd buy these after a drop of this size but judging from the moves in the currency markets this may have been the last big false break.
Taking up short positions again.
If this level fails will wait until 3890 to short again, but I think it's been a shake-out.
Only two other times in history have we seen a 6 Month Bearish Engulfing Candle:
1929: -84.15% from ATH
1973: -49.93% from ATH
Needless to say, the long term bottom on SPX has yet to be found. Note the decrease in volume during this insane SPX bull market rally. Regardless, I believe a bear market rally is incoming as we approach closer to the America Midterm Elections
I think if we can get under 3700 a big drop will come very soon after.
Adding shorts here and will trail stops. Bounces in the 3720 - 3700 I'd expect to be common but any big enough to break the lower lows/lower high structure.
If we can break over 3785 I'll exit most of my big shorts. We might trade back up to 3800 or so even in a bear pattern. Would be...
I called attention to this fib set while SPX was testing the 423. This level has held. The trading above it being a head in a head and shoulders pattern (Known false breakout pattern).
This forecast estimates the price swings to follow if SPX observes the norms of how price tends to trade back through these fib sets when making a high on the 423.
We might have the start of what will become the actionable break for the memorable part of the crash. Although the market has been down-trending for a while, usually the part of the move remembered as the "Crash" is when this steady downtrend transitions into the strong capitulation crash. The 2008 bear started in 2007, but we call 2008 the "Crash".
the price will try to reach the upper of the channel
but it is possible to test 3786 and the start to go up
and if break 3780 by the 4h candle (consolidate) will reach 3730 the direction will be bearish
For Me There Are Two Reversal Zones For SPX ,3500 And 3200 ,At One Of These Levels Wave A Will Complete And We Will Have One More Up As a Wave B
📥 As You know Usually SPX And BTC Are Have a Direct Correlation So We Will Have Small Bounce On BTC While SPX Start Making Wave B And I Think It Will Happen Around 16k ~ 15k For BTC
The SPX closed 0.2 percent higher after a V-shaped intraday recovery.
While the sell-off was dominated by growth concerns the reversal was based on the same idea, but with the connotation of bad-news-is-good-news, as rate hike expectations came back significantly ( see chart below ).
Recession fears were also expressed by rates (10-year yields closed about...
Standard and Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period.