Heartbeat_Trading

The End & The Beginning

Short
SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
This will be our final public post

The collapse of modern society and capitalism has begun

We must focus on preparation

May you all be safe
Comment:
Market crash in progress

Buckle Up

Comment:
IWM headed for a crash

Comment:
GET READY FOR A DECADE OF PAIN AT THE GAS PUMP

HOME ENERGY COSTS ABOUT TO SKYROCKET

Comment:
SAFE HAVEN TIME

Comment:
Ok looks like we were wrong...for now

The market decided to change its mind on crashing right now and instead head to new all time highs

A pullback is imminent so looking for the Fed news this week to provide a catalyst for that move lower

How that move takes shape will decide the rest of 2024 and beyond

With that said even if we get new ATHs the ultimate fate of the market is the same...a depression level environment that sees the S&P500 at sub-2000 levels.
Comment:
if we get new ATHs this is where we should top

Again, new ATHs do not change the ultimate destination...just means we decline from a higher price.

Comment:
Looking for an extremely imminent pullback in the S&P

Ideally 1st support will hold and then we head higher to new ATHs

Ultimately the 2nd support needs to hold if we want to see those new ATHs

Any sustained break of the 2nd support opens the door to much larger sustained downside risk

BUT REMEMBER: Even if we get new ATHs the destination over the next 5-8 years is SUB 2000 with expected levels reaching as low as 666-1500 spx

Comment:
If Support holds then we should head toward ATHs

If Support breaks we will head towards 4600

Comment:
Highly suggest you take note of the Targeted Topping Zone

Market structure is suggesting that we may not get too far above that zone on this move.

In fact we may not break that zone at all

Essentially we are saying if you look at what we have been predicting with the broad markets price may not touch this zone again for a decade

Trying to sound the alarm here

We sincerely hope this analysis is wrong because we are not sure the vast majority of people understand the true nature of what we are facing in this country and throughout the world

Please Please Please get prepared

Comment:
Get Ready!
Comment:
Tweaked the targets a bit

Comment:
ALERT!!!

The break of the 5100 level today and the move lower is the huge sign that a major top has been established in the market

BUT even if new All time highs are made we still think the market will find a major ceiling between 5300 and 5400

Comment:
Near term expectations

Comment:
Lets see how this plays out

Comment:
Market generally progressing as expected.

Its possible all of Wave (C) is complete but the market appears to still want to rally a bit

Lets see

Comment:
Zooming out a bit to better see the move we are tracking

Comment:
Ok its pretty clear to us where price is most likely headed

Slightly tweaked the count.
Comment:
CRITICAL MARKET SUPPORT AREAS

The market appears to be setting up for a significant downturn

We are expecting that downturn to begin by the end of this week/ early next week

This could be really ugly

PLEASE TAKE CAUTION

Comment:
CRASH ALERT!!!

BE CAREFUL!!!

Comment:
One last push higher and we should see price fall off a cliff

Comment:
IWM about to go down in flames!!!

Comment:
Ok we are in the target crash zone.

We are on high alert for a significant downturn...i certainly hope we are wrong because this going to be UGLY

Expect one more smaller push higher and then watch out below

Comment:
Price pushed higher as expected.

BE CAREFUL!

Comment:
Get Ready

Comment:
Lets see if we are early on this call...

A break above Wave 2 would invalidate this

Comment:
Ok with that immediate count invalidated then it looks like our terminal top is directly above

Comment:
WELL CANT SAY WE DIDNT WARN YOU

Comment:
Ok based on the latest price action this should be our first major support area

Comment:
Tweaked the targets based on latest price action

We expect tomorrow and the rest of the week to be very volatile

BE CAREFUL!!

Comment:
Perspective:

On our Dec 12th 2023 post we called out the price region we are currently in as a MAJOR TOPPING ZONE.

We have done our best to zero in on a more exact level- (i.e. our Targeted Topping Zone regions).

The fact of the matter is that even if we make a new high, we see much greater risk being Long than Short.

Our posts are showing what we think is the most likely path that price will follow but of course we, nor anyone else, knows the exact future.

This is all about weighing probabilities and taking action in accordance with the most likely path that price will follow.

Good trading to all!
Comment:
IWM as we predicted

Comment:
Thinking price should hold around this level before continuing lower

Comment:
Price trying to fill the gap...

Still looking lower ultimately

Comment:
More precisely

Comment:
Still looking lower

Will have to tweak this count if price breaks over Wave 2 but even then still looking lower

Comment:
Price is in a corrective mode right now with the potential to make a new high (as mentioned this morning when we clarified our perspective)

The Terminal Top region is still MAJOR resistance with our anticipation that price will not break substantially over that region

Comment:
Near term (i.e. tomorrow) expect price to gap down at open and then almost definitely move higher to make another local high over 5200 BUT that will most likely be it for this move up. We DO NOT anticipate price making a new all time high.

Expect the ensuing downturn to be extremely volatile and swift..something akin to what we saw in the Covid crash

Lets zoom out to better understand how we are seeing the chart and why:

Comment:
Ok price moving as expected...anticipating this making it to the terminal top area and then it should move lower

Comment:
Latest view

Comment:
Ok price is at target.

High risk here for a swift move down

BE CAREFUL!!

Comment:
Looks like an Ending Diagonal has formed

If so then price shouldnt make another high meaning this is the top

Lets see!

Comment:
Well we did say volatility was on the menu

And of course the market performs a nice stick-save and pops higher at the lowest probability point...but it changes absolutely nothing.

All of our target regions are still being respected and this market is going down

Comment:
Zooming out from here as any marginal higher highs wont change the analysis (possibility of one last micro push to the 5215 - 5220 region)

In alignment with our big picture view we are looking down from here and await a good short entry point to begin establishing a position

Comment:
Ending Diagonal pattern being tracked

As the name suggests this should mark an end to this move

Comment:
Moving basically as we thought.

Still looking lower from here

Comment:
We will most like consolidate until the CPI report (i think we all anticipate that coming in red hot)...

Thinking we will see some fireworks

Comment:
Ole Powell is hopeful as always.

But ask yourself this question: What incentive does he have to tell you things are really bad out here? Answer: None

In our view the greater risk right now is being LONG this market...good luck if you are

Nothing guaranteed of course but man this chart is bearish

Comment:
Well WE WERE WRONG about the market NOT making new ATHs

Doesnt change the direction or analysis...

Comment:
Money where mouth is..lets see how wrong we are in the overall analysis

Order waiting to be executed (will trigger roughly when price breaks 5280)

Going to start building a position

Comment:
Blow off top of a blow top...

One more high and that should be it (FINALLY!!!)

But why wouldnt we expect a Bull market thats been raging since 2009 to go out without a fight lol

Comment:
Ok there it is

IF YOU ARE LONG PLEASE THINK ABOUT TAKING SOME PROFIT...

BE CAREFUL

Comment:
Money where mouth

Comment:
Position building time
Comment:
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT:

This is for the ridiculous expectations we see by a small minority in the comments(people who OWN their OWN trading will understand why we are doing this PSA)

These are IDEAS- NOT financial advice- Tradingview has that disclaimer on every idea post for a reason

We are simply small retail traders who love this trading game and like to share our ideas.

We are not, can not and will never be able to predict with certainty where price is going- and neither can anyone else

Before you get to shouting in the comments about how wrong a call we made is..POST YOUR OWN IDEA AND SHOW THE WORLD WHATS THE RIGHT CALL

An idea is NOT a trade recommendation...if you want to know our positions..which is what you should be asking about BEFORE you take action on one of our ideas...YOU SHOULD ASK

Simply said: we have our ideas and then we have our positions..two separate things smh

Almost every person in the comments with these unrealistic expectations never has any posts or ideas of their own

If you need someone else to tell you what to BUY/SELL you might want to reconsider trading.

So for the very small minority who this post is for, while we cannot and will not give out financial advice, we do offer some life advice:

Develop an INTERNAL locus of control-your trading will thank you
Comment:
Why have we been saying the Bull Market is over? And why are we looking so low?

Ok this is going to get technical so google is your friend on this one:

In our posting history you see us really calling out that a top is near around Nov 2023 because at the time the size of the larger degree B wave was 61.8% the size of the lower degree B wave

Essentially the fractal nature of the market queued us to begin looking for a top.

Once a new local high was made we begin calling out the possibility of new ATHs with the likely target area being between 5000 and 5500 w/ the 5100 area equating to a 1:1 relationship with the lower degree wave B

Target zones were marked strategically as high as 5500 because as we said we expect the larger degree waves to be larger

And ever since we have been tracking price and trying to get a more defined target

Our ideas and posts are calling out whats probable...our trades however are always (at least we try to be) in line with trend

So NO, we have NOT been LONG since Oct/Nov smh

We have been strategically getting in and out of trades in BOTH directions.

We are going to show just that in our Watch Us Trade A Bear Market post.

Its way more to how we trade and see the market but hopefully this clarifies..

Comment:
WHY DID WE TAKE A SHORT POSITION TODAY?


Chart explains it

And if Elliott Wave isnt your thing or you think its too subjective or just plain nonsense....then maybe when you see how people are going to get absolutely BURNED by this move up today you will take another look...

Could we be wrong? of course

But we dont think we are so we put our money where our mouth is.
Comment:
We went short at roughly the red line yesterday.

Lets see what happens

Comment:
Please Dont Be Greedy..TAKE SOME PROFIT

Comment:
Remember this level...you may not see it again for a long time

Comment:
Another drop lower in 3...2...1

just kidding...looking lower still

Comment:
Ok next targets...

And YES WE ARE STILL SHORTING...

As we said yesterday..THESE posts are more than just ideas because we have active positions..and are building them as we go down

Comment:
Would you look at that...

As we said:

There is a difference between these Big Idea type posts that we make...and the way we trade those ideas..

And we are about to keep showing it

STILL LOOKING LOWER

Comment:
Oh and as we said yesterday

We went short at the red dotted line yesterday...and today we have been shorting since the top of Wave 2
Comment:
As expected.....now we are looking for a 3 wave corrective move back up

As with all elliott wave analysis we have an alternative view as well..

If the target above doesnt hold then we would temporarily look higher to the 5400 level as we called out in our MARCH 28th post which is the same zone we called out DEC 12th of last year..

BUT even if that happens the result is the same- MAJOR DOWNTURN

Like we said...we are trading now so we are executing within our ideas...when we are trading we ALWAYS have an alternative perspective and know when our analysis is invalidated...

We will define better targets as the move back higher progresses

Comment:
We are already short the market in various ways but posting this IDEA aka setup...for Traders who own their own trading and see the power in this POTENTIAL price action

Comment:
As we said we are seeing the market as immediately bearish BUT like we also said new highs are new highs and there is the potential (although much less probable) that we make one more high with a potential final top around 5400 (5350ish))

As for Monday we are tracking 2 counts upon further review.

We see price as either dropping aggressively pretty quickly Monday (white count) or making it a little higher before the drop (orange count)

Any price movement above 5325 would have us looking to one last top around 5400...before continuing to look much lower

Comment:
Guess the orange count wins...so far

Nvidia earnings will be the catalyst...Thur/Fri should see some nice volatility

The question is what direction? Guess we will see

Comment:
Thinking Nvidia pops higher regardless of what they state in their earnings

Thinking market will pop marginally higher make a new ATH and then head lower.

The alternative is NO new ATH and head lower..

The destination is the same..

Lets see

Comment:
Chart above tells the story for the next couple days and into next week.

The price movement and volume in particular over the last day or so shows price most likely will pop higher but the level of buying will not support the move and we will see a major reversal

Lets see!
Comment:
Morning!

Market moving as expected.

Should open higher but dont see the move picking up truly bullish steam

Watching for an aggressive reversal sooner than later

Comment:
And thats what we meant by aggressive reversal

Moving as expected.

Thinking we see one more low towards 5245 and then a pull back up towards 5270ish and then we will reaccess..should that move tomorrow

Lets see!

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