DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

"The Bull Market is back!" Say the TV talking heads. But in spite of the tech runup, small caps remain stagnant and 40% of stonks still trade below their 200 DMA. So, the 'bullishness' is limited to the glamour go-go issues. NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG META... etc etc all go higher, while the rest languish. That ain't a bull market, it's a Bear Market...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

The Great Fleecing of novices and fools continues. First, a massive year-long rally was permitted to run its course all through 2021, price climbed inexorably higher and higher to astronomic regions. Euphoria was universal. Stonks only go up! No time for Puts! gOgOgO!! Bulls made money. Second, came the Wyckoff distribution we have seen all year long in 2022,...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Chart has it all. Notice every prior local top is a point, no plateaus, after squeezing the upper Bolly band, they rollover. August gap is a magnet. Once filled, much higher seems improbable. Fewer issues advance the price, moves up on lower volume, weaker RSI. Lot of participants been waiting to sell at this price. The dump after this rally dies could be...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Prices go oversold on Wednesday and overbought on Thursday. Welcome to the new normal. Good luck with it! Looks like we may be entering Wyckoff accumulation phase. Price has been rangebound this year. Notice that we are at same price as May 23 2022. Near the end of a bear market, prices will usually suffer a final capitulation. This might not occur for weeks or...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Get Ready. VIX rising with rising price. RSI <60, got 70 at the Head > divergence. Do not buy into this fake rally. Bear ain't over, after hibernating all winter, it will come out hungry in springtime. 900 days. VIX >40. Watch.

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Short the rallies! Every rally is nothing but liquidity grab. You gotta be nuts to go long here, because: FOMC > more rate hikes 'may be needed' = 'are coming' Banking crisis. Worse than they let on. Yield curve inverted. Always preceeds major selloff. Recession is coming. For all the above. We in 70's economy, stupid! The Big Dump w/capitulation always comes...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Simple idea. Price has drifted closer to S/R line, seems likely to test it soon. Buy that dip, but Bear is not over! Indicators approaching oversold; FOMC FOMO likely start a weaker rally to a right shoulder; then June Swoon.

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

GET READY. BACKTESTED. PIVOT IN PROGRESS. Three Drives to the Top! 4310 Double Top Coming. BULLS LAST HURRAH.

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

It ain't over folks. I see so much hopium and happy nonsense every day here. It ain't getting any higher. Stop smoking weed and sit up straight! Fact: No bear has ever ended with VIX <40. Ain't been north of 36 yet. Fact: Y2K bubble ended on a 900+ day bear. This one looks a lot like it, and is not half done yet, only 420+ days into it. Fact: Inflation remains...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

No New Bull market, no new ATH yet. Just another Bull **** Trap. Headed for oversold IMO, see RSI. Likely find support at 50MA on the 4K, where former resistance turned support before. See the arrows. I begged friends and family to shuck this dog but "No, it's going to ATH they said, you're wrong Sawbucks. What, and miss out on the next bull run?!" See you at...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Trades at the most common retracement price. Risk equities may soon become less popular. Amazing how these small caps appreciated from the COVID lows. Price may be expected to seek fair valuation... somewhere in between.

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Real simple idea. All the Happy enthusiastic FOMO and BTFD tech stonks still trading at 700x PE. All Happy BS. You BTFD here you gonna get a nasty surprise, surprise, surprise. This monthly view shows where RSI goes in a real Bear. NB: U R HERE... U R NEXT! This won't happen overnight, it will be a painfull grind with some terrific knifedowns. Real Bears last...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Chart says all. Break below means it was a fake break. Bounce means we going higher. Critical juncture. Golden cross forming? Maybe. No position. Hold nothing.

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Well well here we are above the 2022 bear trendline. This is a definitely breakout above the fall line, after the cup and handle. Plenty of peeps still talking about a further decline to <3600 but I reckon it's time to abandon that notion. Market's going to emerge from bear soon imo. We have inverted H&S formation and cup & handle leading to this breakout. It...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Notice how similar the patterns highlighted. Diverging RSI with higher prices; Exact RSI pattern as well. Could be setup for another drop, keep an eye out!

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Bull and Bear cases. Can go either way and all positions entail extreme risk at this juncture imo. IF last week's selloff TL rejection was a First Wave, THEN we going a lot lower real soon (projection in 5-EW). IF the Cup & Handle (so clear! notice line drawings) predominates, THEN look for a breakout above TL at 4k and retest with impulsive move higher. Notice...

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

There it is. Plain & Simple. Consolidation = cup Retracement = handle Bull wave to follow > Double top?! Trade with Caution: Chart patterns like this are often deceptive and misleading!

DaddySawbucks P Updated 

Capitulation, VIX > 40+, the Big Dump of '23 maybe coming, and soon. .382 Fibo at 3908, NB: R/S line right there, 200 pips under last top. Unless JPowell indicates "No Time for Puts" on 1 Feb, expect a big disappointment. Bear will end when last bull throws in. No reason to think JP will suddenly pivot policy. He told us twice now the Fed wont ease up until...