DaddySawbucks

Bears Beware!

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
A correction is coming soon. Maybe started this week. How low will it go? Nobody knows.

So many Bearish Posts. Permabears predicting cataclysm. The End is Near!
Doomsayers who repeatedly forecast massive crashes will eventually be right, once every 15-20 years.

Almost always these guys are just plain wrong. Markets exist to print money. Money prints when prices rise.

Stonks mostly go UP. Every ATH is preceeded by... a prior ATH.
Markets climbs a wall of worry.

Sudden sharp pullbacks and price declines are always a shocker.
But they don't last very long. Few weeks, a few months. Then it goes UP again. Correction of Aug-Oct 2023 was just 3 months, now look at it.

Here is something to consider. Overlay is from April 2020 - Jan 2021.

IF this entire move for past five months has been a First Wave after the 2022 bear, THEN we got a lot more pain for bears coming. Fib extension 1.618 = 6515!
It is certainly possible to enjoy another 20% rally following a correction.

The 2022 bear shaved over 1300 pips off SPX. At current index price closed 5117, we are just 6.5% above the 2021 ATH! Only six percent... after all this bullishness!

Lotta folks worry, "But we are already up 20%!" Well, actually we are up 6% here. The other 14% was recovery of lost value.

I do not foresee another bear market following on the heels of 2022. We should get a sharp correction and then prices will rise, again, as always.

Watch this correction, note the form it takes for clues as to what is next.

Election years tend to be BULLISH. Incumbents promote policy to support financial markets. Uncertainty surrounding the election in October gives way to relief rally in November.
Comment:
Do not be confused by a one-day flash rally. A correction is coming.
The real bull move will begin after the correction.
Fear>Greed>Hope>Fear > Greed> Greed > Hopeful Greed
Comment:
Overbought
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More overbought! Can always get higher... so many bear posts now, crash predictions and EW theory grim projections.

A correction, not a crash, is likely soon. Exact timing: impossible. Tomorrow, next week, next month, no idea.

I don't do predictions. They always disappoint. I prefer to play the odds, and odds favor the bullish scenario now.

SPX today is +1150 from October '23 low. All the way up doomcasters been saying, 'this is the top!' They bought puts and lost all their money. A week later they said, "This is surely the top!" They bought puts again and lost all their money again. That strategy has been unprofitable, to say the least.

LOL there is no top, only pullbacks before higher.

Crash happens when something surprising and really discouraging occurs. Housing market crisis (none atm); global warfare (small ones grind along uneventfully), dollar devaluation or global recession (ticking along just fine), and ofc recession (soft landing looks likely). So absent some catalyst there ain't gonna be no crash.

Stop with the doom & gloom predictions already! I count four chartists on this site predicting SPX <3k by 2025.
>6K is more likely imo. We had da bear in '22, now it bulls. Get with the program!
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Well you bears, now is the time to come to the aid of your shorts. Price appears to have topped or is very close to topping. 5260 has been resisted twice firmly.

On 3/28 DJI squeaked a notch higher, to within 200 pips of 40K. It could get there Monday, or fall from here.

NQ presses up against 18.5k and gets weaker with each thrust higher. Watch QQQ ebb and flow... 449...448...447..446...445 today...444. Each high is a bit lower high... stairstepping.
SPY 524 kicked back twice. Can it get higher? OFC! It can ALWAYS GET HIGHER... but is extremely vulnerable to any risk surprise.
When the break comes it will be frantic. This will NOT be a crash, sorry doomcasters! It will be a correction, get ready!

Opened SPXS, SQQQ, SDOW positions EOD 3/28/24. GLTA!
Comment:
Closed out on April Flush. NIce. Don't expect more than 3 days' selling on the first leg. This is the first leg of three imo.
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Back to the SAME DAMN PRICE after Three Days of Dumping and pumping. Do NOT be SHORT NOW IMO.

Get ready for another irrational exuberant pump from Hell and face-ripping rally. Whatever news comes will be good, bad news = the new good news, good news = even gooder.

One fly in the ointment could be Iran. Muslim holiday on 10 April, ending on 11th. Nutjobs have been active on the 11th day, as you may recall. Be wary.

Absent geopolitical events, expect a ridiculous face-ripper on unwarranted optimism after CPI.
Comment:
Well it did and didn't... at 8:29am QQQ traded over $445... ten minutes later was $335... in open drive running ~ -$4... CPI worse than the worst estimate may be a nail in the coffin for bulls.

Three persistently high CPI numbers Jan-Mar means Fed really can't cut rates until at least September, maybe not until next year.
So the optimistic dot-plot Papa showed us in December is on the scrap heap.

My idea that price would get stupidly higher was based on the hopium of lower rates and easing monetary policy. Fed will have to remain hawkish and might even jack the rates another 25 bps. That will kill the bull run if they do it... next meeting 30 Apr/01 May.
Comment:
Never underestimate greed and hopium. After three days they forget all about the CPI (What CPI?!) and BTFD.
Not planning on swinging any shorts. Has not been an effective strategy. PPI tomorrow could give a double bottom.
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Yeah there it goes, again. BTFD FOREVER. Tried to warn ya!

SPY 513c > 500% in 4 hours
QQQ 440c > 500%

Hope you got some of it!
Comment:
Once again sullen bears retreat into dark corners licking their wounds. Astonishing.
Bulls may be close to the end of this run. Anything can bring it down now.
Wipe the smile off your face and take fkg profits before they evaporate.

Price action has become frantic and highly volatile in both directions. Feels a lot like the action during COVID, but alternating ups/downs rather than a waterfall.

This market is a very very very fkg risky place to play. Beware!
Comment:
Risk off... wow. So wild. Danger zone. Broke support, correcting. Ow!
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Wow puts printed didn't expect so much so soon always surprising. Looks like third wave down and might be getting close to another rally. Be really cautious about further shorts here... short the rallies.
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Looks like we had fifth EW down 4/17, caught this wave in QQQ 433p. Such a delightful dump, the joy of the put.

The correction is underway but what form it will take is still TBD. Expect a bear rally next few days. After the first big move the subsequent rally will be fierce and typically gains 0.62 Fibo, maybe more.

Around 512 SPY we should see weakness return. The next leg lower will map the nature of correction, whether it be ABC, or an impulsive crash dump remains to be seen. Out all shorts for now.

After the correction, the rally should produce a double top, or perhaps even a new ATH, in July.
Comment:
Correction nears completion. Banked it. Going long in UDOW. Get TQQQ when QQQ taps 421 on gapfill.
Comment:
Selling climax building overnight. DJI futes -400. Could print one of those deep dragonfly dojis. Wait to see!
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Out shorts. Loaded TQQQ, UDOW. Rally will be ferocious.
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Out longs. No shorts yet. Correction is NOT OVER. Next leg down soon. What catalyst? ERs, Iran, PCE, FOMC, so many, take ur pick.

Expect 50% retracement of the 300 pips lost from SPX. So full of surprises, not holding longs to find out.
Cash is a fine position atm.
Short the rallies.

When correction completes, another massive bull run will move index to ATH, imo. Election year. Rate cuts.
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