DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks

Convergence of trendlines - short-term down, long-term up and near-term inverted triangle formation, with former support at 24,640 becoming resistance, combined with low upside volumes, high downside volumes, weak RSI and what appears to be a tech bubble forming are all ominous for sharp retracement to trendline. Expect fibo .68 retrace to near Dow 23,800 before...

DaddySawbucks

...but you never do know... could still see retest of trendline even after big 300+ surge today - expect more volatility near-term, but this pivot at 24,361 on Dow likely marks beginning of upwards march back to 26.6k+ full recovery could take months, but first leg up will be pretty steep, look for a rapid rise to around 25,500 - to the resistance Fibo above the...

DaddySawbucks

We've been anxiously waiting for the retracement, closing at 24,361 within a few points of the Fib .62 harmonic wave pullback. Would be very very risky to short this market now - if you want to take that chance keep your stops really really tight! The breakout will be powerful and race ahead like a tsunami, pointed at recovery to 26,616. Do not get drowned Bear Brothers!

DaddySawbucks

Mixed indicators in the candles and wild price action - buying sprees followed by selling panics. Oscillators and MACD still mostly bullish. If I had to guess I'd say Elliot V(iii) recovery wave up is coming soon, but you simply can't predict the when of this market. Correction is probably just about over now. Could easily sell off again before moving higher,...

DaddySawbucks

More wild swings and panic-like reactions to news feeds are whipsawing markets. Trivial geopolitical rumors causing panic attacks. Up 380, down 280, then back up, then down again... daily swings - looks like bears taking control again and entering distribution phase. This is the time in market cycle when pros unload their overpriced shares to amateurs and...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Strong price action on 5-10 moving up to MACD and very near previous high formed a lower high, but just by a hair. Shooting star candlestick suggests reaction due. Just yesterday I published an idea that a real bear market is forming, but the rally today sure makes me wonder- is this the last wave of correction? Looking only at closing prices, note there is a...

DaddySawbucks

A better model for my idea. More detail in chart; DJIA piercing the top of triangle 5-09 does not constitute breakout; low volume, weak RSI. It's a bull trap. The downtrend is definite and clearly established now, with 4 lower highs over past 3 months and 3 retests of the support base of descending triangle. Bulls are weary and the bull run is ten years old....

DaddySawbucks

The descending triangle squeezing buyers out; the volume was miniscule on today's advance, very thin, weak. It's a bull trap. As prices descend back through the triangle towards baseline support it will pierce on high volume, confirming the bear market. Once the horizontal support is pierced there will likely be a brief upwards reaction, followed quickly by a...