Wave model projected 25076 on Dow got to 25070. Divergence in indices suggests flight to quality - dumping tech to buy blue chips, nervous toppy behavior. Can go higher but is due for a pullback and possibly a substantial drawdown. Wave C could carry to 23800 or lower. Could get a shooting star Tues to confirm topping. Other indexes already moving lower and...
Nice double top formed around the subwave 4 on bullish reactionary wave in downtrend correction... it's not over yet... media says 'going to the Moon' so look down Record high NDX and broad-market Nasdaq today, all-time high for MSFT now trading at market cap $800Billion... can you say bubbly?! Rate hikes- check; inflation - check; t-bill rate inversion - coming...
Wednesday's pullback looking like a subwave 4 now expect a final subwave 5 push to possibly 25100 pivot for short entry sometime next week; This last pushup will likely terminate correction wave B and usher in wave C downdraft. Anything can happen though; market is irrational- good luck!
0709: +320; 0710: + 140; 0711: +60? Can they bull it through 25K? Maybe we get a shooting star Doji for short signal on Wednesday. Will soon see. Earnings season incoming: they bought the rumor, will sell the news. Runup in banks based on earnings expectations. Tech already tanking; hanging man Doji on Nas. Divergence in NDX +0.04% Dow + 0.58% SPX +.35% =...
Fellow traders, here is my updated idea on what the Dow might be in for, given unfolding patterns- although small Elliott 'microwaves' have appeared in the past week, they are chaotic and unreliable; instead we have what looks like a truncated flat contracting 'B' wave in A-B-C Elliott Wave correction; An argument can be made for a minor 1-2-3 impulse over past...
Guys & gals, sorry to disappoint but it's time to face reality. My Elliott Wave Theory projection is just not happening. This dog just won't hunt; not going to the Moon anytime soon, either. What we have going on is a classic bull pennant in bear market flag formation. It's probably (~94%) going to lead to continuation downtrend. see virtually identical Fig 2:...
Better detail updating my short squeeze idea. The wicks of candles over past four sessions form an arrowhead triangle. Usually these lead to BO in trend continuation (Wave A correction) but Wave B hasn't yet broken .38 Fibo. While certainly possible, these retraces most often yield at least .50 and usually .618 Fibos. BO down from here would be total...
Big downdraft from 25402 -> 24407 knocked 1395 pts off Dow for correction wave A. Reaction wave B ongoing now completed subwave 1(up), 2 (down) with the green hammer Doji Monday. Shown in more detail in this idea. Subwave 3 can carry index as high as 24686 before Wave 4 reaction retraces, possibly as low as 24440, but not below subwave 1 top. Subwave 5 can...
Dow is entering Wave B of A-B-C correction from 5th Ellliot wave peaked at 24401 from the 1-2-3-4-5 impulse up waves in ascending wedge: Two inverted hammers last week suggest pivotal juncture and bullish bias; sub-micro analysis of wave B will show slight retracement early in July with lift into next week (1-2-3-4-5- micro pattern projected onto Wave B, has been...
FIERCE SELLING INTO EVERY RALLY BUT FRIDAY'S RUNUP AT LEAST LEFT A LITTLE GREEN ON THE TABLE THE REACTION TO RISING WEDGE BO DOWN IS ONGOING, INDEX RESPECTED PRICE TRENDLINE THURSDAY ~24K EXPECT ANOTHER RALLY ATTEMPT ON 7/02. DON'T EXPECT IT TO GET MUCH ABOVE 24460, THE WEDGE MIDPOINT. TRADED RIGHT AT MIDPOINT ALL FRIDAY BEFORE DAYTRADER SELLOFF, WHICH WE SEE...
TODAY WE SAW 24560 BRIEFLY, THEN SEVERE INTRADAY BREAK FAILED RALLY NEXT STOP 23800 AND BELOW. BREAKDOWN CONTINUES- POSSIBLE 1K SELLOFF IMMINENT; SECULAR BEAR MARKET BEGINNING NOW- FOR GOD'S SAKE BE CAREFUL TRADERS!
EXPECT REACTION TO ~24900, SHORT SQUEEZE COMING NOW; PERHAPS LESS, BEFORE HEADING LOWER AGAIN IN JULY. STRONG RESIST @25K NOW. THANKS TRUMP!
DOW BROKE THE WEDGE DOWN AND HAS RETRACED 50% OF WEDGE HEIGHT, REACHED TARGET 24463 ON 062118. NEAR OR AT REVERSAL PIVOT POINT NOW; SHARP REACTION UP SHOULD CARRY INDEX TO RETEST WEDGE BASE RESISTANCE. ENTER SHORTS AND BUY INDEX PUTS WHEN TARGET REACHED ~24975 NEVER BET IT ALL ON ONE DAY - FEED IT IN OVER SEVERAL SESSIONS NEAR THE TOP - WATCH THE CURVE FOR TOPPING
LOOK FOR CORRECTION TO CONTINUE AFTER A REACTION TO RETEST WEDGE TRENDLINE; STRONG RESISTANCE @25000 DOW. LIKELY ~15-20% OVERALL CORRECTION FROM 26616 HIGH. TRADE WAR IS OVERRATED THIS PATTERN IS PRICE DRIVEN; LOOK AT BITCOIN; SAME PATTERN! TRUE RECOVERY SOMETIME IN NOV-DEC AFTER MIDTERM ELECTIONS. L@@K AT 2ND GRAPH ON THIS PAGE: www.investopedia.com
NOW OFF ~HALF DOWN THE ROAD TO RETRACE THE MAY/JUN BULL FLAG. SEE NOTES ON GRAPHIC. THIS IS PROJECTION OF WHAT COULD BE LIKELY, NOT PREDICTING, OKAY! THE DOW CHART LOOKS OMINOUSLY LIKE BITCOIN - HAVE CRESTED TOP OF SECOND PEAK, LESS IN SIZE THAN THE MONSTER ROCK IN JAN 18. NEXT SLIDE DEEP INTO THE FROZEN LAKE AT FOOT OF THIS RANGE. NOT CALLING FOR MONSTER CRASH...
Yeah thanks Fed. ECB next on the grill. Look for fairly sharp pullback to DIA 247 area, where strong support reaching back intersects the old downtrend. Dunno if the flag will keep waving or another bad break could come up- very dicey now. This is the end of Elliott wave V (leg 3). In My Humble Op, with 4 hikes looking at Fed funds rate near 3% >>> that's the...
No wild-eyed predictions here folks, just observations and ideas... maybe, just maybe, we got topping action and what looks bearishly like a head & shoulders triple top in Dow with textbook Hanging Man today and the appearance of another bearish Gartley forming, with left side completed. IF price action confirms this pattern, then the downleg to trendline will be...
The bearish inverted triangle better shown than my last idea. I could be wrong and this bull could take off running again but I wouldn't bet on it just yet. I think traders have discounted the Donald's tariff war but the full impact of waging fiscal war on the entire world will slowly dawn- prices going up, profits down; and we're close to the first rate hike...