Elliot V(ii) Retracing - uptick in the downleg ongoing...
The bearish inverted triangle better shown than my last idea. I could be wrong and this bull could take off running again but I wouldn't bet on it just yet.
I think traders have discounted the Donald's tariff war but the full impact of waging fiscal war on the entire world will slowly dawn- prices going up, profits down; and we're close to the first rate hike maybe in mid-June. We have divergence in DOW and NDX with weak gains on Industrials, rampant speculating in techs - gap-ups are bearish too.
If the hike is small there could be a relief rally off the news. Q1 earnings really over now and little driving force upwards. Lot of skittishness. Q2 two months away.
Been expecting DIA 238 for retest trendline and we got to 242 last week, but the rally off that is weak and volatile- whipsawing on small volume, not a real bullish run.
Real run will have steady gains day after day on heavy volume >400m daily and rising boats in all sectors. This ain't it IMHO. I been wrong before; hope I am again!
Brace for impact and have ready cash at 23800! Idk if I would short this retest, its risky; I am just sidelined atm, good chance to get burned here IMHO.
I think traders have discounted the Donald's tariff war but the full impact of waging fiscal war on the entire world will slowly dawn- prices going up, profits down; and we're close to the first rate hike maybe in mid-June. We have divergence in DOW and NDX with weak gains on Industrials, rampant speculating in techs - gap-ups are bearish too.
If the hike is small there could be a relief rally off the news. Q1 earnings really over now and little driving force upwards. Lot of skittishness. Q2 two months away.
Been expecting DIA 238 for retest trendline and we got to 242 last week, but the rally off that is weak and volatile- whipsawing on small volume, not a real bullish run.
Real run will have steady gains day after day on heavy volume >400m daily and rising boats in all sectors. This ain't it IMHO. I been wrong before; hope I am again!
Brace for impact and have ready cash at 23800! Idk if I would short this retest, its risky; I am just sidelined atm, good chance to get burned here IMHO.
Order cancelled:
Still hanging on at resistance 248. Bearish divergence in the indices, rampant speculation on techs, pricing now discounting 50+ years' earnings in FAANGs; advance in NDX is not driven by institutional investment - it's retail sales. This is distribution phase price action. Selling overpriced issues to novice players. The break will come when steam runs out on this tech bull trap. Can't say exactly when but I suppose "15 June" is as good a guess as any!
