Elliott Correction Wave B starting up
Dow is entering Wave B of A-B-C correction from 5th Ellliot wave peaked at 24401 from the 1-2-3-4-5 impulse up waves in ascending wedge:
Two inverted hammers last week suggest pivotal juncture and bullish bias; sub-micro analysis of wave B will show slight retracement early in July with lift into next week
(1-2-3-4-5- micro pattern projected onto Wave B, has been up two sessions (wave B1), expect slight down 1-2 sessions (B2) then surge (B3) and a B4 fallback before B5 last push to top of channel. 24,950 is not impossible but I fear quite unlikely. Wave B reactions to A wave corrections typically won't get past Fibo 0.618, perhaps only 0.5...
Wave B 0.5 Fibo retrace of 1400-pt drop yields ~24700, former strong support becomes resistance; Fibo .618 = 24866;
When wave B is completed, index will make right shoulder and show us the upper channel of new descending wedge (projected);
We have the lower trendline of forming wedge now from 24004 low tested priceline last week (shown).
Likely several waves in down channel of descending wedge, A-B-C-D-E shown for example; probably ending in a panic;
flashcrash from panic in Sep/Oct could drive it under 22k;
Resulting reaction BO top of wedge and rejoin long trendline as next impulse wave up 1-2-3-4-5 shown.
Two inverted hammers last week suggest pivotal juncture and bullish bias; sub-micro analysis of wave B will show slight retracement early in July with lift into next week
(1-2-3-4-5- micro pattern projected onto Wave B, has been up two sessions (wave B1), expect slight down 1-2 sessions (B2) then surge (B3) and a B4 fallback before B5 last push to top of channel. 24,950 is not impossible but I fear quite unlikely. Wave B reactions to A wave corrections typically won't get past Fibo 0.618, perhaps only 0.5...
Wave B 0.5 Fibo retrace of 1400-pt drop yields ~24700, former strong support becomes resistance; Fibo .618 = 24866;
When wave B is completed, index will make right shoulder and show us the upper channel of new descending wedge (projected);
We have the lower trendline of forming wedge now from 24004 low tested priceline last week (shown).
Likely several waves in down channel of descending wedge, A-B-C-D-E shown for example; probably ending in a panic;
flashcrash from panic in Sep/Oct could drive it under 22k;
Resulting reaction BO top of wedge and rejoin long trendline as next impulse wave up 1-2-3-4-5 shown.
Related Ideas
