If #1,800.80 is not recovered shortly, #1,727.80 is next

Gold's general commentary: Gold was close to hit the #1,800.80 Hourly 4 chart Resistance zone (psychological barrier aswell) zone as Bond Yields were on a spiral downtrend (# -0.46%), DX was Trading on Neutral candles and near the it’s Daily chart Support levels (few sessions ago, printing biggest Intra-day losses in more than #90 sessions), Trading on a solid Channel Down for the #5 straight sessions and the only reason Gold hasn't breached Higher High trendline yet is constant Volatility on Bond Yields (struggling to make Bullish comeback). Regarding Gold, Price-action is currently on a pivotal point as it is testing the Higher High trendline on the Hourly 1 chart Channel Up. The fact that Hourly 4 turned critically Bearish highlights that fact. Hourly 4 chart is able to convert to Rising Wedge, and typical Target for such event would be #1,737.80, cooling down the strong Bullish values on the chart as market can’t only Trade in one direction. Technically a break above #1,800.80 turns the Short-term bias Bullish and will push for the #1,817.80 Resistance which can pierce Daily chart’s RSI Resistance. Otherwise Gold will stay within the ranged Price-action I’ve been highlighting. With current Bond Yields developments, I can’t see how Gold can reverse into Buying, as I will keep operating with my breakout strategy, keeping close track to Bond Yields, my strongest marker at the moment. I am expecting Gold to be below #1,700.80 within May’s fractal (on #1,678.80 near May #20).


Fundamental analysis: Eventually the Hourly 4 healthy Channel Up delivered strong impulse and as the Price-action made a Higher High at #1,797.80 throughout #3-session horizon, it Naturally initiated the aggressive Bullish leg towards the Higher High’s trendline (well Supported by Low’s on Bond Yields). The Hourly 4 Resistance is now priced at #1,800.80 - #1,805.80 and should work as the Resistance in order to complete the Bullish sequence which is calling for a second Higher High extension around the #1,817.80. Even though the last Lower High was at #1,760.80 breaking of mentioned configuration would invalidate the Technical Buying potential, as the Short-term Bullish trend would not resume and will come to an end. In my opinion if the #1,805.80 Resistance breaks, Gold should spike towards #1,817.80, and break of can test #1,850.70 variance and above (January #21 - January #29 Double Top zone). On the other hand and with an Rising Wedge formation, expect a pullback towards the #1,760.80 zone (if #1,778.80 breaks), and closing below it is a positive sign for Sellers. Very important #3 session range for Gold, as my model leans more to the Bearish side.


Technical analysis: Ahead of weekend break, Gold was testing the #1,778.80 Lower High Support and above all, turning point which could shift Gold from Neutral to Bearish on Short-term. The trend remains Bearish regarding Medium-term for now but will change if Gold closes one Daily candle above #1,800.80 psychological barrier. Gold is without a catalyst today (no traditional NFP announcement) as Gold retraced once again since Bond Yields are without a recovery. DX (which is testing its Short-term Higher Low trendline) should resume it’s Bearish trend, practicing Buying pressure on Gold (but mostly ignored since Yields are strongest correlation at the moment). Keep in mind that I am expecting an #140 point decline as May will be Bearish Month for Gold. Since trend can change on Hourly basis regarding Bond Yields (having direct impact on Gold) I will approach current market sentiment with extreme care and with breakout points / confirmations. I will Sell Gold again on Bond Yields Resistance break, or preferably when #1,778.80 breaks.


My position: At the moment, my model leans more to the Bearish side, as only viable plan for current situation is: Buying if #1,800.80 breaks, Selling if #1,787.80 breaks, calling for #1,760.80 extension. If #1,760.80 breaks, I will be ready to pursue #1,727.80 with my orders.