Gold's general overview: I was expecting decent movement by E.U. opening, or within #1 session. Fed announced their decision regarding the Interest Rate and it was one of the most important events for Gold. Speculators were expected #99% to leave the rate unchanged. During the past #12 events when the actual rate matched the expected forecast, Gold decreased in the next #2 sessions (#66.70% probability). So stats are on my side this week for #1,700.80 by Friday. It appears that early pre-Fed Investor sentiment towards the DX was Neutral (rebounding to test the #92.10 Resistance) and that should practice some Selling pressure on Gold. However, as long as Bond notes stays above it’s current levels, then Gold will be kept below #1,735.80. Regardless of that, Gold remains Neutral within the #1,730’s Belt / Hourly 4 Rectangle, so I can't rule out another ~ #1,722.80 Support test. I will wait for a clear breakout and then make my move.
Technical analysis: Since E.U. session opening, I have been contemplating Selling the market on an obvious Neutral trend, but Gold seemed to ignoring positive developments on DX (on a mini recovery # +0.24%) and making me believe that Price-action reached eminent Top and could retrace a bit as I will Trade the breakout (more secure option). However, market responded with lagging upswing sequence which was identical to the November #16 High configuration. My strategy is going in my favor, since I always note that my aim is to project Long-term/Quarterly cycles as I believe I am always right about Gold’s Long-term direction. Medium/Long term Traders' goal should be to focus on Resistance/Support levels as the breakout points. My estimation shows that the base case scenario is even extending the Price-action to #1,700.80 but it is too early to mention such Low levels since #1,722.80 is still preserved. Gold is on a tight balance at the moment, positively biased by the pullback on world equities and DX, but still on negative cycle due to the continuous High’s on Bond notes, fueled by Fed results. Gold always respects it’s variances and Long-term cycles as for now, trend is fully Bearish right on the current fractal, retracement level since last August's bottom. If the Higher Low zone breaks however, I will be looking at the very real possibility of a new #1,764.80 test, and by my estimation, this is maximum of Bullish cycle if occurs. I am not interested in Buying Gold on Short-term, no matter what happens, since Bond notes strong correlation can always hit the Buyer's Stop-losses and invalidate their setups.
My position: As I am not interested in Buying Gold regarding Short-term, I will be ready to pursue #1,700.80 psychological barrier with my set of Selling orders if #1,722.80 Support zone breaks. Once #1,700.80 breaks, I will be expecting #1,678.80 extension within #10 sessions.
Technical analysis: Since E.U. session opening, I have been contemplating Selling the market on an obvious Neutral trend, but Gold seemed to ignoring positive developments on DX (on a mini recovery # +0.24%) and making me believe that Price-action reached eminent Top and could retrace a bit as I will Trade the breakout (more secure option). However, market responded with lagging upswing sequence which was identical to the November #16 High configuration. My strategy is going in my favor, since I always note that my aim is to project Long-term/Quarterly cycles as I believe I am always right about Gold’s Long-term direction. Medium/Long term Traders' goal should be to focus on Resistance/Support levels as the breakout points. My estimation shows that the base case scenario is even extending the Price-action to #1,700.80 but it is too early to mention such Low levels since #1,722.80 is still preserved. Gold is on a tight balance at the moment, positively biased by the pullback on world equities and DX, but still on negative cycle due to the continuous High’s on Bond notes, fueled by Fed results. Gold always respects it’s variances and Long-term cycles as for now, trend is fully Bearish right on the current fractal, retracement level since last August's bottom. If the Higher Low zone breaks however, I will be looking at the very real possibility of a new #1,764.80 test, and by my estimation, this is maximum of Bullish cycle if occurs. I am not interested in Buying Gold on Short-term, no matter what happens, since Bond notes strong correlation can always hit the Buyer's Stop-losses and invalidate their setups.
My position: As I am not interested in Buying Gold regarding Short-term, I will be ready to pursue #1,700.80 psychological barrier with my set of Selling orders if #1,722.80 Support zone breaks. Once #1,700.80 breaks, I will be expecting #1,678.80 extension within #10 sessions.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
