goldenBear88

#1,800.80 postponed for at least #5 sessions

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: Gold is consolidating, mostly above it’s Daily chart #MA50 (Xau-Usd Spot prices at #1,865.80), which Technically leans more to the Bearish side. Investors are waiting for core economic catalysts, besides today’s Neutral session, as Bond Yields crisis vanishes and comfort Sellers in their intent early on. DX is Trading again on the same pattern, started on January #4, creating High’s which are later Sold, which Low’s can turn Gold Higher (especially since the equities are posting a strong rally), but that hasn't happened so far, leading me to believe that the DX weighs more on Gold than Stock markets at the moment, and Bond Yields as an strongest correlation. Hence, as discussed, keep track of the Bond Yields to make Short-term entries on Gold, as the Medium-term remains Bearish (Channel Up on Hourly 4 chart widely broken). In my opinion, #1,782.80 is broken last week on Daily chart, and it didn't delivered Buying entry towards #1,800.80 psychological barrier / however on the other side, #1,760.80 presents strong Support for current Bullish variance, which is last hope for Buyers.


Fundamental analysis: Despite the strong Bearish candle sequence on the DX throughout yesterday's session (# -0.47%), Gold remains on losses and above my Support for the day as the U.S. session approaches and Political tensions resurface. However, #1,782.80 is new/old Resistance zone made by the Hourly 4 candlestick configuration. Gold is pulling back again after it failed to break above it’s Resistance variance on the Hourly 4 chart, while #1,760.80 configuration is protecting the eminent downtrend. This sequence is similar to the September #24 - #28 pattern when a Double Bottom was made before the strong rebound. Also current Gold's impulse and rejection was Highly correlated with the side Swings on the Bond Yields market, which side Swings on Hourly basis are putting my positions to risk and distorting fair Technical trends. As discussed, Gold was Trading on a broken Channel Up and that fractal is Buying back every dip and postponing the downtrend and pointing me that Gold is entering Neutral phase (regarding Short-term).


Technical analysis: Gold is having a productive session for both Buyers and Sellers so far, pushing Lower, ignoring the weakness on the DX, but due Hourly 1 Double Bottom on Bond Yields, which is pausing the uptrend on Gold. However, I believe the current (Short-term) mixed values on Bond Yields (which is distorting Technical trends) run may be coming to an end as the Daily chart Resistance is priced near (#10 Years Yield chart), and every fractal / whenever the Price-action is stalled in #1,770.80 - #1,780.80 belt, it delivered a major move on the aftermath. On December #2, Gold was inside of above mentioned belt and touched #1,952.80 aggressive impulse. On February #25, zone was crucial aswell and delivered #90 point decline when broken. Currently, the fractal is repeated as Gold retraced from final Resistance break towards #1,770.70 - #1,780.80 belt, and now Gold should pick a side and reveal a major move.


My position: As discussed many times on my commentaries, Bond Yields are my main marker at the moment (I have full screen dedicated to Yields chart on my desk), and as soon as I spotted Double Bottom on Hourly 1 chart, I closed my Buying orders on Gold and remained Neutral for the session. Gold rejected the Price-action and and broken the Support which changed the Technical perspective from Bullish to Bearish on Short-term, and #1,744.80 sounds more promising than #1,800.80 test. I engaged my Selling order on #1,771.80 calling for #1,744.80 test, while I would suggest Traders with smaller margins to keep away from the markets as Gold is keeping close track of Bond Yields, and their Volatility will add even stronger mixed values on Gold, with perspective which can shift on Hourly basis. I will keep tracking Bond Yields and continue carefully operating with my Selling order on Gold.

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