Both scenarios possible / #1,678.80 within #10 sessions
Gold's general outlook: Gold is going after the #1,700.80 psychological barrier test again, which as I mentioned this week is the current strong Support. It is positive that #1,735.80 (Xau-Usd numbers as always in my focus) level held throughout yesterday’s session, as it maintains the Daily chart Channel Down and since the Hourly 4 points to an steeper fall and #1,678.80 variance (which as I mentioned as #9-Month Low), I may have a decent Bearish development on my hands. But as long as the Price-action doesn't break the #1,698.80 or less, I can't be sure of a sustainable decline. Especially ahead of the Volatility on correlating assets which can shift momentum easily (as seen many times this week). The Daily chart is Bearish and since March #30, when the Daily chart RSI is within #48.800 and #54.200, it is the ideal Medium-term Selling entry as Gold rallies aggressively. But that would be further confirmed if the Price-action either breaks below #1,692.80 or touches the Daily chart’s #1,688.80 Lower Low extension. Historical resemblance shows that Gold should be already below #1,700.80 since last #3 times when correlating assets were skyrocketing last week, engaging parabolic uptrend / Gold ignored it on more than #3 occasions (Friday’s session - March #12, March #5 and February #26 where Selling extension reversed into a Bullish rally with DX and Bond notes above the Resistances). Resemblance shows that every #4th try will reveal a major move and it would be no surprise to see a #50-60 point decline on Gold within #10 sessions.
Gold's Short-term: The current Hourly 4 candle is already too Bullish to deliver continuation of Intra-day Selling sentiment and with Hourly 1 switch from Bullish to Neutral on Short-term, Gold may pause the downtrend as Investors may start taking Profits on their Buying orders and find value within the #1,730.80 - #1,740.80 again. I was pondering about Selling the rise early on, but correlating instruments are not Trading in my favor. The key is the Hourly 1 Resistance priced at #1,735.90 which rejected the Price-action twice (current Month) and has already done so on today’s session. This is the key and if that configuration breaks, Short-term Buyers should take it to #1,744.80 and #1,750.80 impulse barrier in extension. Otherwise, the #1,710.80 Support should be re-tested for a potential Double Bottom as in late September. The DX though got rejected on it’s Hourly 4 Resistance and it is due to the strong Bond notes market that Gold isn't rising anymore. I have chosen sidelines option as it is always better to be without a positions in these situations to utilize the trend to it’s maximum and Trade it from very own beginning.
Technical analysis: Conflicting patterns for Gold as the Hourly 4 chart calls for an Resistance test, while Daily chart shows an solid Channel Down which can potentially extend as Low as the Hourly 1 chart’s #1,678.80 Lower Low, my main point of interest. Hourly 4 charts has an Buying potential for an #1,765.80 November #30 Low test if correlating instruments allow before the Fed. With even Weekly chart (#1W) turning Bearish marginally, it is again all about the Fed decision within #2 sessions and the Price-action closing above the #1,730.80 is to maintain the multi-Week Bullish trend. Fundamentally it is the rise on the Bond market that is devaluing Gold (competitive instruments) as until the Fed decision Investors could see more value there. Regarding DX, it remains on a Short-term Channel Up, so I expect today’s session rise to be quickly corrected back to new Low’s (adding Selling pressure on Gold). I am fully Bearish on Gold regarding Short and Medium-term with Annual projection to be below the #1,600.80 psychological barrier.
My position: I am currently on sidelines since I don't see a Profitable Medium-term pattern yet (confirmation). Price-action can easily spike up towards #1,744.80, but since I am Bearish on Short and Medium-term, I will wait for decent Selling opportunity (#1,722.80 Support break) where I will be ready to pursue #1,700.80 with my Selling orders. I will Buy Gold only if #1,744.80 breaks and confirms Buying leg towards #1,764.80 Monthly Top.
Gold's Short-term: The current Hourly 4 candle is already too Bullish to deliver continuation of Intra-day Selling sentiment and with Hourly 1 switch from Bullish to Neutral on Short-term, Gold may pause the downtrend as Investors may start taking Profits on their Buying orders and find value within the #1,730.80 - #1,740.80 again. I was pondering about Selling the rise early on, but correlating instruments are not Trading in my favor. The key is the Hourly 1 Resistance priced at #1,735.90 which rejected the Price-action twice (current Month) and has already done so on today’s session. This is the key and if that configuration breaks, Short-term Buyers should take it to #1,744.80 and #1,750.80 impulse barrier in extension. Otherwise, the #1,710.80 Support should be re-tested for a potential Double Bottom as in late September. The DX though got rejected on it’s Hourly 4 Resistance and it is due to the strong Bond notes market that Gold isn't rising anymore. I have chosen sidelines option as it is always better to be without a positions in these situations to utilize the trend to it’s maximum and Trade it from very own beginning.
Technical analysis: Conflicting patterns for Gold as the Hourly 4 chart calls for an Resistance test, while Daily chart shows an solid Channel Down which can potentially extend as Low as the Hourly 1 chart’s #1,678.80 Lower Low, my main point of interest. Hourly 4 charts has an Buying potential for an #1,765.80 November #30 Low test if correlating instruments allow before the Fed. With even Weekly chart (#1W) turning Bearish marginally, it is again all about the Fed decision within #2 sessions and the Price-action closing above the #1,730.80 is to maintain the multi-Week Bullish trend. Fundamentally it is the rise on the Bond market that is devaluing Gold (competitive instruments) as until the Fed decision Investors could see more value there. Regarding DX, it remains on a Short-term Channel Up, so I expect today’s session rise to be quickly corrected back to new Low’s (adding Selling pressure on Gold). I am fully Bearish on Gold regarding Short and Medium-term with Annual projection to be below the #1,600.80 psychological barrier.
My position: I am currently on sidelines since I don't see a Profitable Medium-term pattern yet (confirmation). Price-action can easily spike up towards #1,744.80, but since I am Bearish on Short and Medium-term, I will wait for decent Selling opportunity (#1,722.80 Support break) where I will be ready to pursue #1,700.80 with my Selling orders. I will Buy Gold only if #1,744.80 breaks and confirms Buying leg towards #1,764.80 Monthly Top.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
