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Can Oil soar on June 2 OPEC+ cut hopes? WTI crude futures and Brent continue to recover from three-month lows. The rebound is potentially driven by expectations that OPEC+ will extend its output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of the year during its June 2 meeting. Additional support for crude prices came from the start of the U.S....

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We have another eventful week ahead with numerous Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak publicly. Anecdotally, I seem to recall Mester and Kashkari are two of the most impactful speakers, and this week provides an excellent opportunity to see if this holds true. Kashkari recently left The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), so his impact might be lessened...

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On Friday, alongside the US PCE data release, Canada will publish its Q1 GDP growth figures. Earlier in the week, Canada will also release its producer prices data. Note that US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. According to the Royal Bank of Canada, the Canadian economy likely grew more quickly in Q1 2024 based on headline figures. However,...

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The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, US Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) Price Index MoM, is released at the end of the coming week. This means some USD trades could present themselves. But first, a quick recap on why the Core PCE Price Index matters and why it is the Fed’s preferred gauge: Unlike the more familiar Consumer Price Index...

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As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates unchanged yesterday but did provide some surprises to the market; extending the timeline for a potential rate cut, and even noted its consideration of a rate hike. This unexpectedly hawkish stance sent the NZDUSD higher. Before the announcement, markets saw an ~80% chance of a rate cut by...

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Is a rate cut imminent? Watching incoming UK Inflation data "The next move will be a cut," Bank of England's Andrew Bailey stated in response to a question about the Governors thoughts on interest rates during a speech at the London School of Economics. This does not mean the next decision will immediately be a cut; rather, rates will remain stable until a cut...