Some brief thoughts about DIA's trajectory
https://imgur.com/KSRtlKG
https://imgur.com/6R9Sny3
I am attempting to put in images via url, so lets see if this works. I may have to delete and try again.
Anyway, as you all saw, SPY and DIA rallied on Friday, only to (as expected) sell off aggressively at end of day.
However, I was just updating my projections this morning and seeing where that puts me with DIA (I am in a short position on DIA currently) and I noticed something interesting that I had missed.
If you look at these line graphs (I really hope they post!), these are graphs I extract from my stats data on DIA to see how it has been behaving and if you look at it, you can see two key points that would traditionally tell me we still in a continuation of an aggressive downtrend.
These are:
1) The actual high has fallen well below the predicted high 3 weeks ago, to momentarily rally back towards the Upper Confidence high, only to be quickly rejected back down towards the lower confidence high.
2) The same is true for the predicted low.
What really stands out that I didn't notice before, is even after the aggressive rally on Friday, it wasn't enough to throw the stock off from its trajectory towards the lower confidence low level, indicating great weakness. Generally, from experience, if a rally is meant to signify a change in sentiment, I will see a divergence in the modelling towards the Upper Confidence High. I did not see this. In fact, I saw the contrary, further plummeting towards the lower confidence levels on both high and low data.
What does it mean?
It means that DIA, as well as SPY, is still very much in an aggressive downtrend.
That means that we can anticipate approaching and even exceeding projected lower confidence lows.
That means that we could be seeing lows around 342 by Monday or Tuesday and/or below.
I do hate to make these projections over the weekend without having Monday data, but this chart is pretty persuasive in my opinion.
If we get another rally on Monday, I will have to see if that is enough to start steering the stock in the bullish direction, but so far its very much on course down.
Also, you can see circled in blue similar behavior DIA did some time ago only to continue down.
Let me know if you have any questions and have a great weekend!
https://imgur.com/6R9Sny3
I am attempting to put in images via url, so lets see if this works. I may have to delete and try again.
Anyway, as you all saw, SPY and DIA rallied on Friday, only to (as expected) sell off aggressively at end of day.
However, I was just updating my projections this morning and seeing where that puts me with DIA (I am in a short position on DIA currently) and I noticed something interesting that I had missed.
If you look at these line graphs (I really hope they post!), these are graphs I extract from my stats data on DIA to see how it has been behaving and if you look at it, you can see two key points that would traditionally tell me we still in a continuation of an aggressive downtrend.
These are:
1) The actual high has fallen well below the predicted high 3 weeks ago, to momentarily rally back towards the Upper Confidence high, only to be quickly rejected back down towards the lower confidence high.
2) The same is true for the predicted low.
What really stands out that I didn't notice before, is even after the aggressive rally on Friday, it wasn't enough to throw the stock off from its trajectory towards the lower confidence low level, indicating great weakness. Generally, from experience, if a rally is meant to signify a change in sentiment, I will see a divergence in the modelling towards the Upper Confidence High. I did not see this. In fact, I saw the contrary, further plummeting towards the lower confidence levels on both high and low data.
What does it mean?
It means that DIA, as well as SPY, is still very much in an aggressive downtrend.
That means that we can anticipate approaching and even exceeding projected lower confidence lows.
That means that we could be seeing lows around 342 by Monday or Tuesday and/or below.
I do hate to make these projections over the weekend without having Monday data, but this chart is pretty persuasive in my opinion.
If we get another rally on Monday, I will have to see if that is enough to start steering the stock in the bullish direction, but so far its very much on course down.
Also, you can see circled in blue similar behavior DIA did some time ago only to continue down.
Let me know if you have any questions and have a great weekend!
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