SPY was a brat throwing a tantrum today.
But it served a purpose. That unnecessary and quickly rejected bull run that happened yesterday aftermarket, yeah, that atrocity created a gap. SPY filled that gap today and in the process created a nice double top.
There are still 2 more gaps that are on the table, one in the 400s, the other in the 460s.
So where does that leave us?
To put it into perspective, my previous price targets have not changed, even after these annoyances. Stats still tells me those targets are on the agenda in the coming week. However, it did annoying push my anticipated dates of reaching them. Whereas, I thought I would be able to scale out completely Monday, now we are looking to Wednesday - Friday of next week. Annoying but what can you do.
Honestly, Monday will tell. If SPY is (God willing) able to open at 445 or below, we are back on track to make our low targets. If we open above 445, caution is needed. If this happens, I have adjusted my stop-out position to 454.94. This is projected resistance on regression modelling which, if broken, the next projected resistance lies at 463.09.
So if it breaks over 454.94 I am going to just take my profits there vs risking going red, with the plan to re-enter short in the 460s.
Do I think this is likely to happen? Not really, but I don't know for sure. The path of least resistance is down. Leaving the math out of the picture, I could foresee a bounce around that 444 range where that moon base is, back up to 451. This would just signify that SPY was in a period of consolidation and we would anticipate seeing a break out at some point in the near future. SPY does like to do a couple days of consolidation before continuing down so its not entirely unexpected to be honest.
If we can all play nice in the sandbox on Monday (the bears and the bulls) and just accept that SPY needs to go down before we can start even considering new ATHs, we will have a less painful experience for all. Monday will tell though!
Have a great weekend everyone!
But it served a purpose. That unnecessary and quickly rejected bull run that happened yesterday aftermarket, yeah, that atrocity created a gap. SPY filled that gap today and in the process created a nice double top.
There are still 2 more gaps that are on the table, one in the 400s, the other in the 460s.
So where does that leave us?
To put it into perspective, my previous price targets have not changed, even after these annoyances. Stats still tells me those targets are on the agenda in the coming week. However, it did annoying push my anticipated dates of reaching them. Whereas, I thought I would be able to scale out completely Monday, now we are looking to Wednesday - Friday of next week. Annoying but what can you do.
Honestly, Monday will tell. If SPY is (God willing) able to open at 445 or below, we are back on track to make our low targets. If we open above 445, caution is needed. If this happens, I have adjusted my stop-out position to 454.94. This is projected resistance on regression modelling which, if broken, the next projected resistance lies at 463.09.
So if it breaks over 454.94 I am going to just take my profits there vs risking going red, with the plan to re-enter short in the 460s.
Do I think this is likely to happen? Not really, but I don't know for sure. The path of least resistance is down. Leaving the math out of the picture, I could foresee a bounce around that 444 range where that moon base is, back up to 451. This would just signify that SPY was in a period of consolidation and we would anticipate seeing a break out at some point in the near future. SPY does like to do a couple days of consolidation before continuing down so its not entirely unexpected to be honest.
If we can all play nice in the sandbox on Monday (the bears and the bulls) and just accept that SPY needs to go down before we can start even considering new ATHs, we will have a less painful experience for all. Monday will tell though!
Have a great weekend everyone!
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