5/9/24 - $vcsa - high risk long b/c mkt is way offsides i think
5/9/24 - vrockstar - HIGH RISK LONG alert
there's no obvious way to value this, but i'm going to put it in the fundamental post camp b/c that's all I do.
positioning seems WAY off here and that's the point. this is like 15-20 days to cover, there's no option gamma... just shorts that get destroyed if these guys post anything even reasonably "decent"
ABNB
likely holding this hostage today. yes the consumer sucks. yes they burn cash (but like 50 mm a year and still have a stack 4-5x this amt so you won't get a surprise dilution at least rn). the PE/ VC owners are not selling here. the google trends don't look abysmal - they look "bad" but that's literally in the stock price. also 1Q is typically a better seasonal quarter.
CONCLUSION: the setup is massive high risk in this tape that is pounding names like this that actually miss -30% or more. But I think there's 60-70% chance it's a good result, and the upside here could be monsterous (50%?) and the downside perhaps 20% b/c of the seasonality and GT's data i described above. so 65%*50% + 35%*-20% = 25% upside on my rough guess and I take these shots even in small size when i see them
pls comment if you know more so i can save some PnL if you have a really negative view here and i should update my punt to neutral.
there's no obvious way to value this, but i'm going to put it in the fundamental post camp b/c that's all I do.
positioning seems WAY off here and that's the point. this is like 15-20 days to cover, there's no option gamma... just shorts that get destroyed if these guys post anything even reasonably "decent"
ABNB
likely holding this hostage today. yes the consumer sucks. yes they burn cash (but like 50 mm a year and still have a stack 4-5x this amt so you won't get a surprise dilution at least rn). the PE/ VC owners are not selling here. the google trends don't look abysmal - they look "bad" but that's literally in the stock price. also 1Q is typically a better seasonal quarter. CONCLUSION: the setup is massive high risk in this tape that is pounding names like this that actually miss -30% or more. But I think there's 60-70% chance it's a good result, and the upside here could be monsterous (50%?) and the downside perhaps 20% b/c of the seasonality and GT's data i described above. so 65%*50% + 35%*-20% = 25% upside on my rough guess and I take these shots even in small size when i see them
pls comment if you know more so i can save some PnL if you have a really negative view here and i should update my punt to neutral.