Wow (placeholder) New pattern detected, possible bull run. But being on the phone app, the chart looks ugly so im probably going to repost later) Longby pogicraft0
The SPY will be going down shortly …A triangle is forming indicating a move upward or downward shortly. The move can take place within 2/3 or the triangle to the tip. Due to the weekly indicators crossing last week, indicating a downward movement, I suspect a downward movement. But I am not ruling out an upward movement. The move should take place between now and within the next month. This move down will be a relatively brief move down before the market continues up until the US election at the end of the year. Happy trading! Shortby Princessgirl0
ARKK Is this the right time to buy 'Innovation'?Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the November 13 2023 bullish break-out. This puts the price in the middle of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the December 28 2022 bottom. As long as the price action closes the 1D candles above the 1D MA200, we expect an instant rebound. If it breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), then our target will be 66.00 (+47.67%, which is the shortest rally it has had within the Channel Up. A closing below the 1D MA200 though should go for at least a -23.34% decline from the top, which will be our buy entry for the long-term, but our Target will be modified to 61.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot116
Let's Not Be Blind to our Blindness..!Nassim Taleb's: “My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.” He also said: "The only economic research that seems to replicate out-of-sample is the work of Daniel Kahneman on behavioral biases." This phrasing reflects Taleb's critique of traditional economics and his acknowledgment of Kahneman's work on human decision-making, which can be tested and applied in real-world scenarios. Taleb has discussed Daniel Kahneman's research on behavioral economics, particularly Prospect Theory, which studies how people make decisions under uncertainty. A Wisdom from Daniel Kahneman: Not only are we sometimes “blind to the obvious,” but also we are “blind to our blindness.” We all have our own unique experiences and ways of thinking. This can make it hard to see things from a different viewpoint and recognize our own blind spots. Here are some things you can do to overcome this blindness: Be open to feedback: Ask trusted friends or colleagues for their honest opinions. Seek out diverse viewpoints: Read books and articles from people with different backgrounds. Challenge your assumptions: Actively question your own beliefs and biases. By being aware of our limitations, we can start to see the world a little more clearly. Prospect theory is a behavioral economics model developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. It challenges the idea that people make decisions based solely on logic and maximizing expected utility (total value of possible outcomes). Instead, Prospect Theory argues that: Decisions are relative: We judge gains and losses relative to a reference point, often our current wealth or situation. Loss aversion: People feel losses more intensely than equivalent gains. A $100 loss might feel worse than a $100 gain is satisfying. Diminishing sensitivity: The impact of gains and losses diminishes as the amount increases. A $10 gain might feel more significant than a $100 gain. Here's how these ideas influence decision-making: Risk aversion for gains: When faced with choices involving gains, people tend to be risk-averse. They might prefer a guaranteed smaller gain over a risky chance of a larger gain. Risk-seeking for losses: When faced with choices involving losses, people might become risk-seeking. They might choose a gamble with a chance to avoid a loss, even if the odds are not in their favor. Prospect theory has numerous applications in understanding human behavior in various fields, including: Investment decisions: Investors might be more likely to hold onto losing stocks to avoid the pain of realizing a loss. Marketing and sales: Framing promotions around avoiding losses can be more effective than highlighting potential gains. Public policy: Policymakers can use prospect theory to understand how people respond to incentives and risks. Is it possible to be wrong and right at the same time??? My answer is Valid Yes..! look at the following chart published 70 days ago it moved in the opposite direction: Now we can see why Claude Shannon said: “We know the past but cannot control it. We control the future but cannot know it.” Educationby MoshkelgoshaUpdated 12
Rolled (IRA): TLT Jan 17th 2025 Short Calls to Feb 21st... for a .28 credit. Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my covered calls (See Post Below) a month for a small credit. Cost basis/break even in the setup is now 90.20. The small consolation prize is that this keeps my break even right around with the underlying is currently trading.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 222
In a world of chances, Probability is the KingThe Uncertainty and Probability in Trading In a world where uncertainty reigns and the future is always unknown, trading becomes a realm where probability plays a crucial role. Throughout history, no one has been able to predict the future of financial markets with complete accuracy. This uncertainty is inseparable from trading, as we can never fully anticipate market movements. Uncertainty is necessary in trading, as it is the origin of opportunities. Each trader may have a different view of the market, creating a balance between buyers and sellers, thus generating the possibility of closing deals. Recognizing uncertainty allows us to enter a world of probabilities. We understand that no tool enables us to accurately predict the future value of an asset. Therefore, each operation carried out in the market has an expected success rate that is never 100%. Any unexpected event, such as relevant news or surprising economic data, can alter market conditions and turn an apparently perfect trade into a loss. Uncertainty, therefore, is the foundation upon which trading is built. If it were possible to predict the future with absolute certainty, risk would disappear, and any trader would take every possible trade, becoming the richest person in history. However, in the real world, we know that success in trading is based on understanding and managing uncertainty. Probability in Trading: Probability in trading can be understood as the frequency of our successes. That is, the number of successful trades relative to the total number of trades made. Any trading system, no matter how sophisticated, is subject to successes and failures. Therefore, the most we can do is assign each trader an expected percentage of successes, understanding that there is always the possibility of loss due to the constant presence of uncertainty. In previous post , I have explained how uncertainty leads to risk, thanks to the quantification of return dispersion. Now, we are in a position to intertwine uncertainty, probability, and risk and better understand the nature of trading. This is a world where success is not guaranteed, but where risks can be managed intelligently. Ultimately, accepting uncertainty allows us to make informed decisions and maximize our chances of success by managing our risk, all in such a volatile and uncertain field as trading. In summary, probability is the king of a kingdom where risk is the queen, both becoming the two fundamental pillars of any successful trading system, whether done consciously or unknowingly. King and Queen in the world of uncertainty. Recognizing their influence allows us to manage them and navigate better in this world of opportunities and risks. Long live the King!Educationby Carlos_F_4440
TQQQ Tech 3X levarged ETF LONGOn this 15 minute chart, TQQQ is in an anchored VWAP band and volume profile breakout. Near to the end of the regular market, the RSI indicator ran from deep oversold. After hours, NVDA reported a sizable earnings beat. The AI machine learning and backtesting indicator forecasts and uptrend continuation. I will get call options targeting $58 for Friday's expiration. This is a risky play, price trend could reverse and there could be no time left to recover from that reversal. The rewards for the trade going right could easily exceed 100%.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 3
Identify & understand key supply and demand areas $SPYUnderstanding supply and demand is essential. Here’s a quick intro to how we can benefit as traders by using AMEX:SPY as an example. 1. Identifying Potential Entry and Exit Points: Supply zones represent areas where selling pressure exceeds buying pressure, potentially causing price to reverse. Demand zones, on the other hand, indicate areas where buying pressure exceeds selling pressure, potentially leading to price bouncing. Traders can use these zones to identify optimal entry and exit points for their trades. 2. Risk Management: By incorporating supply and demand zones into our analysis, traders can effectively manage risk. Placing stop-loss orders just beyond key supply and demand zones can help protect capital by minimizing losses if price moves against our positions. 3. Confirmation of Trading Signals: Supply and demand zones can act as confirmation for other trading signals, such as candlestick patterns or technical indicators. When these signals align with key supply or demand zones, it increases the probability of a successful trade. 4. Understanding Market Sentiment: Monitoring supply and demand zones can provide insights into market sentiment. For example, a strong demand zone being consistently respected may indicate bullish sentiment, while repeated failures to break above a supply zone may signal bearish sentiment. Understanding institutional & hedge funds impact 1. Liquidity Impact: Institutional buyers and “whales” often execute large orders that can significantly impact liquidity in the market. Their trades can absorb available liquidity, causing rapid price movements in the direction of their trades. 2. Price Manipulation: Institutional buyers and whales have the financial resources to manipulate prices in their favor. They may strategically place large orders to create artificial supply or demand zones, inducing retail traders to buy or sell, only to reverse the market direction once their positions are filled. 3. Market Direction Influence: Institutional traders and whales often have access to extensive research, data analysis, and insider information. Their trading activities can signal market trends and influence the direction of price movements, prompting retail traders to follow suit. 4. Impact on Support and Resistance Levels: The trading activities of institutional buyers and whales can lead to the formation of significant support and resistance levels. These levels often coincide with key supply and demand zones, making them important areas for traders to monitor. Understanding the behavior of institutional buyers and whales is essential because it provides insights into market dynamics and helps anticipate potential price movements. In conclusion, mastering the concepts of supply and demand zones can significantly enhance your trading prowess, especially when applied to instruments like $SPY. These zones serve as crucial indicators of market sentiment, providing valuable insights into potential price reversals and continuations. By incorporating supply and demand analysis into your trading strategy, you can identify optimal entry and exit points, manage risk effectively, and increase the probability of successful trades. Furthermore, understanding the influence of institutional buyers and whales adds another layer of depth to your trading analysis. Their substantial trading activities often shape market dynamics, influencing price movements and the formation of key support and resistance levels. By closely monitoring their actions alongside supply and demand zones, traders can gain a clearer understanding of market trends and make more informed decisions. Remember, trading is both an art and a science, requiring continuous learning and adaptation. Happy trading! by LegitElijaah1
UVXY crosses over mean anchored VWAP LONGUVXY which leverages the VIX as a measure of volatility / greed/ fear has finally crossed over the mean anchored VWAP. This is a sign of bullish momentum and perhaps a signal that traders should hedge or consider their positions in terms of hard risk management. Those who traded this move up today made 10% or better in the trade. Those who bought call options expiring tomorrow made 10X and those with call options for next Friday made 5X overnight. Tomorrow is another day. Likely the market will rise from the correction and UXVY will fade a bit. No matter, its value for insurance and hedging is reinforced on days like the past day. I am maintaining a full position aside the call options closed at the afternoon bell which expire on Friday and had time decay to contend with. My first target is 7.75 then comes 8.05 and 8.45. I will take off 20% at each target and keep the others for insurance for a true market crash or black swan event to buffer losses while stops get hit.Longby AwesomeAvaniUpdated 1
Osol Solana Bullish long term Bearish short termOsol Solana Bullish long term Bearish short term I am not a financial advisor. This is not meant to be and does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or any other types of advice or recommendation.by braheemaliUpdated 2
SPY SELL++++Spy printed a SELL signal last week. Targets in the short term are $505.94, 492 and 478 where we have quite bit of support. Nothing goes in a straight line so sell the rallies!!Shortby ShortSeller763
SPY gap fill. BEWARE!Seems to be a bit of a gap that needs filled. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but sooner or later, will have to be dealt with.Shortby SPY_Trader0
TLT for 15.04 big bear attack is comingFor TLT, I just wanted to share my own ideas, which are not investment advice, about the interaction of recent geopolitical events and expectations, as a note to history. In the pre-trading hours, I expect 88.3 with the opening and maybe 86.9 with reaction sales. Since I foresee a movement around 1.045 in terms of Euro / Dollar parity, I suspect that there will be a serious withdrawal with possible reaction sales. In the meantime, I will make a loss as I am in a long position.Shortby Berdem79333
SILVER will follow GOLD?SLV: SILVER will follow GOLD? -Breakout of long time accumulation. -Vol for demand confirmed. -Inversed HnS pattern. -Demand zone waiting for a pull back. . Wait n see!by phanvinhhai1
SPY Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following: The market is trading on 510.83 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 515.64 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK Longby AnabelSignals223
QQQ: Will Keep Growing! Here is Why: Looking at the chart of QQQ right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely. ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️ Longby UnitedSignals222
TQQQ - Cup awaiting Handle ?TQQQ on a weekly chart in 2021 ascended into a falling wedge. As part of the falling wedge, it started the downside initial part of a cup and handle pattern. The reversal occurred 11 months ago with the upside completion of the cup back to 57.5 In the typical cup and handle, the handle then forms in a 50% retracement of the height of the cup. the cup height measures 44.5 over a period of about 9 months. Notably relative volumes peaked at the bottom of the pattern. Once the retracement is complete, bullish continuation should occur to the extent of the height of the cup above the lip. That is to say an uptrend from 57.5 adding 44.5 to get to 102 more or less. But first the retracement and reversal must occur. Accordingly, if this is an incomplete cup and handle, it forecasts a retracement of 44.5 divided by 2 or to about 38 as shown by the Fib retracement tool. After that price must reverse then overcome the resistance of the lip of the cup ( 57.5) and continue to 102. Overall, this forecasts that a bearish crash is in store for TQQQ ( as well as QQQ from which it is leveraged). Time will tell if this pattern has given an accurate forecast. In the meanwhile, I will watch for signs of QQQ topping out on the weekly time frame after the same signs on lower time frames. The alternative view is that TQQQ is building an even bigger cup right now with the lip at about 88 when the price had a high pivot down on November 22, 2021. So, do you see a bigger or smaller cup pattern or none at all? by AwesomeAvaniUpdated 7
Little more room to the upside before a more meaningful pullbackAs the S&P rises, bullish signals become less clear. That said, a short-term top is likely near and fits the forecasting narrative. by BlueLineTradingLLC110
SPY could start a clear bearish trend.The market strongly breaks our subjective support of r200ma on April 4, and then tests the $520.00 zone, forming a clear resistance in that zone which gives us an HL's, on April 12 the price breaks a $512.00 support zone, zone that the price could test and then form a downward trend, if our prediction is confirmed, the price could be looking for the $495.00 zone. Desclaimer: The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute , financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Shortby Jorge_RMG1
"SILVER" COULD BE THE NEXT GOLD!!!Hello everyone, I hope you are all doing well. Previously, I had shared my analysis on the price rise of gold. In case you missed it, I would like to share some new opportunities with you. The chart indicates a very bullish trend with 1 leg, 2 legs, and a positive RSI and MACD in monthly and yearly time frames. Silver is about to explode in price, with the first target being $40, which is a 60% increase. The next targets are $60 and $70. I will keep you updated on this in the future. Thank you for your attention. (This is a midterm analysis 6 months to 1.5 years) TVC:SILVER MCX:SILVER1! CAPITALCOM:SILVER FX:XAGUSD OANDA:XAGUSD FOREXCOM:XAGUSD Caution: Before executing a trade, consider the risk/reward ratio and implement proper risk management techniques based on your total investment amount. Disclaimer: This information or service is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be personal financial adviceLongby sepehr_sanjar2
Is QQQ forming a Top? Trend Channel Chart shows the potentialTops take time however QQQ is obviously very stretched here and the recent consolidation is providing Bears an opportunity to open short positions with relatively low risk. The big challenge is that tops take time - they have a way of chipping away and frustrating bears. Watch for a break of the Trend line and Back test failure for a Bear triggerShortby hangonstaycalm0
SPY: Long Trade Explained SPY - Classic bullish setup - Our team expects bullish continuation SUGGESTED TRADE: Swing Trade Long SPY Entry Point - 510.83 Stop Loss - 507.58 Take Profit - 517.50 Our Risk - 1% Start protection of your profits from lower levels ❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️ Longby UnitedSignals113
QQQ Expected Growth! BUY! My dear friends, QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 438.29 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 441.64 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK Longby AnabelSignals112