The argument
I don’t get it, the Peter Schiff vs BTC HODL-ers argument, right? I mean what defines being right or wrong? First of all, it depends on the arguments matter and the exact statement about it. Like “is BTC like gold?” -sure not. One can find several statements against BTC and/or gold and both can be true, false, right or wrong (at a certain point of time) as it all depends on the actual action the person would take about it (when to buy, sell, short or hold forever - but for what reason?). And in my opinion it doesn’t make any sense to look at a chart and say such “see, I’m right” or “see, you’re wrong” stuff because as long as an actual trade is not closed, it’s just a meaningless number on a chart (paper gains) that can (and will) change any time, contradicting the previous instances without asking for permission.
Lucky BTC
Still, the unbelievable lucky long example for BTC here is that for the past 2 years, even the dumbest FOMO HODLer who bought in at the very top of the end of the 2017 rally (@ $19500) by selling his/her house and mother and went FULL IN like a crazy, now can say he/she was right as this was a 2 year long trade, made 78% profit, so Mr.Shiff, you lose with your gold (gold made 50% during this period, BTW) and I walk out with the big bucks. End of story. :D
Gold long term?
I’m also looking at the past performance of gold now: I found a peak in 1980, but that was such long time ago, you have to calculate inflation too, so for example if I bought an ounce of gold back then in 1980 for... say $826, then in 2020 the same item should cost about $2600 (as the 216% cumulative rate of inflation for the dollar). And the gold is now just below $1900 so I would have lost quite a bit in 40 years on this trade, right? No way, after all it was supposed to be a hedge and a long term investment, so probably I'm missing something here, I didn't sleep last night, can't think now, help me out guys.. So, the real value of the asset went down during this past 40 years? Gosh, what would Mike Maloney would say? I recommend checking his channel out, BTW because lot's to learn from him if you want some insight on long term investments, gold, real estate macro and wealth cycles. Maybe it is now time to buy, then? Or is it “now or never”? :D OK, I'm not serious now, sorry about that (but he is smart and cool so I recommend looking at his stuff).
Right or wrong
So, in my opinion the definition of (about an investment or a trade) being right or wrong manifests itself at (and not before) the point of closing the trade. Whenever the person sells the stock or gold or covers the short position or gets out of whatever the asset we had put on the table and argued over.
Bottom line
My advice is to watch from the sidelines and learn and/or execute a smart and profitable plan. A real one. As sure, BTC might go up 100k or 300k one day but also it might make a correction back to 20k, 14k, 10k and/or 7k any time. So the point is not what “might” happen. The point is what can we know for sure (not much in my opinion), what are the possibilities (learn from history) and what is your personal goal and plan. Think like this girl Viv with her Model3. She bought TSLA stocks (I don’t remember when, probably 2017 or so? doesn’t matter now) and sold in 2020 with such a profit so she could buy a new car out of it. This is a plan, executed as it should be, and not a ‘living on hopeium for the rest of days’ kind of clueless and unsure/dangerous thing. In other words: get a life! Paper gains are not real. Think about the odds: are You gonna be the 80% who loses or the 20% with the real profits in the stock market?
Trade safe.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Probably I’ll post this following text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it.
Introduction and the mindset:
8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe for flipping. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. My experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and it’s unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium) or future expectations based on past performance. This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio, all my past ideas and talk about them with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks.
My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer):
In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also I didn’t know any known influencer back then.
My recent/actual ideas and how to do it:
I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose on the whole. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will recover and pay good dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover as soon as Covid is over) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too, no matter what) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus looking at the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde or in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history tells me that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market. The examples I analyzed: 1929, 2000, 2008. And doesn’t the 2008 example tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the stock market rally instead of everyone else?) But yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different”, right? :D Jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and some solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future.
Why and how? A simple enough hint for example: if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) or did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance, IBM is big (didn’t disappear at all) and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO and/or the ones who didn’t sell at the top, and I think this applies to the majority. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later) this is my point. So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or of any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both to the fundamentals and financials or in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority are investments for 3-5 years plus sometimes they are/were swing trades (based on price action) too:
TSLA in 2020 again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (mostly swing trades); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit I made on it).
I don’t get it, the Peter Schiff vs BTC HODL-ers argument, right? I mean what defines being right or wrong? First of all, it depends on the arguments matter and the exact statement about it. Like “is BTC like gold?” -sure not. One can find several statements against BTC and/or gold and both can be true, false, right or wrong (at a certain point of time) as it all depends on the actual action the person would take about it (when to buy, sell, short or hold forever - but for what reason?). And in my opinion it doesn’t make any sense to look at a chart and say such “see, I’m right” or “see, you’re wrong” stuff because as long as an actual trade is not closed, it’s just a meaningless number on a chart (paper gains) that can (and will) change any time, contradicting the previous instances without asking for permission.
Lucky BTC
Still, the unbelievable lucky long example for BTC here is that for the past 2 years, even the dumbest FOMO HODLer who bought in at the very top of the end of the 2017 rally (@ $19500) by selling his/her house and mother and went FULL IN like a crazy, now can say he/she was right as this was a 2 year long trade, made 78% profit, so Mr.Shiff, you lose with your gold (gold made 50% during this period, BTW) and I walk out with the big bucks. End of story. :D
Gold long term?
I’m also looking at the past performance of gold now: I found a peak in 1980, but that was such long time ago, you have to calculate inflation too, so for example if I bought an ounce of gold back then in 1980 for... say $826, then in 2020 the same item should cost about $2600 (as the 216% cumulative rate of inflation for the dollar). And the gold is now just below $1900 so I would have lost quite a bit in 40 years on this trade, right? No way, after all it was supposed to be a hedge and a long term investment, so probably I'm missing something here, I didn't sleep last night, can't think now, help me out guys.. So, the real value of the asset went down during this past 40 years? Gosh, what would Mike Maloney would say? I recommend checking his channel out, BTW because lot's to learn from him if you want some insight on long term investments, gold, real estate macro and wealth cycles. Maybe it is now time to buy, then? Or is it “now or never”? :D OK, I'm not serious now, sorry about that (but he is smart and cool so I recommend looking at his stuff).
Right or wrong
So, in my opinion the definition of (about an investment or a trade) being right or wrong manifests itself at (and not before) the point of closing the trade. Whenever the person sells the stock or gold or covers the short position or gets out of whatever the asset we had put on the table and argued over.
Bottom line
My advice is to watch from the sidelines and learn and/or execute a smart and profitable plan. A real one. As sure, BTC might go up 100k or 300k one day but also it might make a correction back to 20k, 14k, 10k and/or 7k any time. So the point is not what “might” happen. The point is what can we know for sure (not much in my opinion), what are the possibilities (learn from history) and what is your personal goal and plan. Think like this girl Viv with her Model3. She bought TSLA stocks (I don’t remember when, probably 2017 or so? doesn’t matter now) and sold in 2020 with such a profit so she could buy a new car out of it. This is a plan, executed as it should be, and not a ‘living on hopeium for the rest of days’ kind of clueless and unsure/dangerous thing. In other words: get a life! Paper gains are not real. Think about the odds: are You gonna be the 80% who loses or the 20% with the real profits in the stock market?
Trade safe.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Probably I’ll post this following text several times (under each ticker) that I mention below, as the meaning of the writing necessitate it.
Introduction and the mindset:
8-10% of my wealth is in the US stock market, other almost 90% in real estate in Europe for flipping. As for the stocks, you got to have a diversified portfolio in my opinion. My experience tells me you can be lucky sometimes and you also gonna be unlucky at any given time (and it’s unexpected all the time). So one can not count on luck and/or feelings (I call it being on Hope-ium) or future expectations based on past performance. This is the reason for the need of diversification, especially in this unprecedented (word of 2020, right?) environment. Lots of analysts say the market is overvalued, stock prices are overstretched (the SPY and tech at least). I think this is partially true and it does matter sometimes, it does not matter too much other times and/or instances as you’ll see soon below. OK, too much talk already, I will show you my portfolio, all my past ideas and talk about them with numbers, entry points, targets and even risks.
My past fundamental ideas (as for reputation, not a bluffer):
In 2019 I only had 2 ideas, both based on my fundamental analysis and they were for investment (so, not for short term trade ideas). Tesla and Bitcoin. For TSLA my entry plan and buying advice was @ $426 in December (pre-split price, so if you are new, divide it by 5). For BTC I stated that I recon we have to wait for the beginning of 2020 (according to my plan it was most likely for about February) and buy the expected dip - according to my readings - at $5500. Of course Covid came and things got crazy, but we didn’t expect that. Lots of losses and learning, but here I share some useful thoughts and ideas. I learned technical analysis, but these fundamental ideas born according to my own research, also I didn’t know any known influencer back then.
My recent/actual ideas and how to do it:
I divide my stock portfolio for 5 sectors in a way that if even 3 or 4 of them fails, the other 1 or 2 will pay out so much, I wouldn’t mind and never lose on the whole. My sectors watched: 1.REIT (they will recover and pay good dividends) 2.Energy (they will recover as soon as Covid is over) 3.Commodities (we need them whatever happens) 4.Biotech (necessity too, no matter what) 5.Insurance (self explanatory). The SPY is driven by tech, so I left it out for now (with a small exception), as no need to risk now, because tech is a bit overstretched at the moment and even if it’s going way higher, my ideas will too. But if tech is not going higher, I will still make profits (hence the so called ‘K-shape recovery’). Not easy to do this in such overvalued levels but not everything is expensive and also note, that not every cheap stock is going to die off, so the main buying habit of mine is what George Gammon likes also: “I buy a dollar for fifty cents” if I may quote him here. This idea means that I buy according to the actual (and my own) valuation, plus looking at the current stock price of the company and not according to the momentum or the horde or in other words the ‘best performers’ according to popular Youtubers, similar influencers (or the mainstream media for that matter), as history tells me that the majority loses and the minority wins (at least during those crazy unprecedented times like now when soon everyone is in the stock market. The examples I analyzed: 1929, 2000, 2008. And doesn’t the 2008 example tell you that it would be wiser to be on the side of Michael Burry during the stock market rally instead of everyone else?) But yeah, I know, it’s not easy and also, “this time will be different”, right? :D Jokes aside, I believe at least in a way this time it actually could be different, the task is to understand fundamentals, think a lot and make smart decisions based on your own research. And the more you read and think, the closer you might get to some advantage and some solution that will pay off highly likely in every possible scenario in the future.
Why and how? A simple enough hint for example: if a stock is a ‘top performer’ that fact might actually mean it already did what we expected from it to do (otherwise why the term?), so you kind of could already be late, but you would never know. This is when FOMO comes in to play, beware! Sure, you can be lucky and participate in a bubble just like how it was with Yahoo in 1999-2000 but only afterwards (years later) could you for sure realize that it wasn’t a good idea to buy in around 1999 as you didn’t sell at the top (2nd of January, 2000) or did you? Even though the “long term fundamentals” that they talked about back then, they all turned out to be 100% true, because tech went higher for sure, Apple is still a winning company, we are surrounded with computers, smartphones and it's all tech and internet and websites, we still use yahoo mail every day and listen to yahoo finance, IBM is big (didn’t disappear at all) and so on. Tech is cool and king. Still, the dot com bubble was bad and painful for the majority. See, everyone was right except for the ones who bought in at the high prices because of FOMO and/or the ones who didn’t sell at the top, and I think this applies to the majority. As you see now, those ‘top performers’ worked very well for those who bought in at the bottom or even half way to the top for swing trades (but that was just before you heard about them and not really any time later) this is my point. So, the problem is that no one ever knows when is the top of a bubble or of any kind of run up that is driven by sentiment if it’s not a slow and steady growth corresponding both to the fundamentals and financials or in other words the real growth of a company. So the solution is to better find one that is trusted and/or have future and not going bankrupt soon and is beaten down to the ground. That’s when you buy in. Warren teaches this too, but this is my own thinking and just a coincidence that the old man says it too. So, I reveal here all my stocks and investment picks that I either bought and/or had planned or advised to buy so far with my first entry prices during 2020 (not placed in order of any sort, but just random). The majority are investments for 3-5 years plus sometimes they are/were swing trades (based on price action) too:
TSLA in 2020 again @ $358 (pre split); NYMT @ $1; IVR anywhere below $4; NIO anywhere below $5 (mostly swing trades); HEXO @ $0.74 (pre split); ASTC @ $1.82 (swing trade); CDEV @ $1; LMND @ $47; TXMD @ $1.2; LXRX @ 1.93; GNW @ $3.26 (swing trade); WPG @ $1 (pre split); CRSP @ $60; gold below $1700; AAL @ $10 (swing trade); AMC @ $2.84 (swing trade); BTC @ $5500 for investment (and was swing trade too, from $7000 to $9000 because I had to pay property tax and did it from the profit I made on it).