Grayscale Ethereum fund - comparing where we are right now
Simply an interesting point of view to consider. Not financial advice, just a discussion point here while it is appropriate.
Our current level matches wick down at Ethereum's peak timeframe. I am mapping out the 50-period EMA. Top chart is 50-day and obviously bottom charted calculated at the 50-period (3-hr view).
The Puell Multiple chart (www.lookintobitcoin....arts/puell-multiple/) shows supply-side activity. (That's my interpretation.) Whether tracking Bitcoin or Ethereum, we are in a relatively low volatility timeframe (compared to April/May) which would indicate less upward and downward pressure at the moment.
To me, this is all to say that we are in around a support level. There is a risk here though as well during a timeframe when an ETF is being considered, it is possible that some of the Funds like Grayscale trade at a discount and see far less gains moving forward with an expectation that an ETF is created as an entirely new trading option. i.e. If there is a Grayscale Crypto ETF, then likely investors would invest there and pull money from either GBTC or ETHE.
For this reason, my plan is to watch ETHE and GBTC for any volume that would indicate insider knowledge of an ETF option. The average investor will likely not have access to the asset at the beginning so I may have to determine where to put the money should I see a negative correlation between the fund and underlying asset. (i.e. ETHE trades sideways while Ethereum gains.)
Our current level matches wick down at Ethereum's peak timeframe. I am mapping out the 50-period EMA. Top chart is 50-day and obviously bottom charted calculated at the 50-period (3-hr view).
The Puell Multiple chart (www.lookintobitcoin....arts/puell-multiple/) shows supply-side activity. (That's my interpretation.) Whether tracking Bitcoin or Ethereum, we are in a relatively low volatility timeframe (compared to April/May) which would indicate less upward and downward pressure at the moment.
To me, this is all to say that we are in around a support level. There is a risk here though as well during a timeframe when an ETF is being considered, it is possible that some of the Funds like Grayscale trade at a discount and see far less gains moving forward with an expectation that an ETF is created as an entirely new trading option. i.e. If there is a Grayscale Crypto ETF, then likely investors would invest there and pull money from either GBTC or ETHE.
For this reason, my plan is to watch ETHE and GBTC for any volume that would indicate insider knowledge of an ETF option. The average investor will likely not have access to the asset at the beginning so I may have to determine where to put the money should I see a negative correlation between the fund and underlying asset. (i.e. ETHE trades sideways while Ethereum gains.)
1 where we are now
Assuming we move up from here, rather than consolidate more:
2 a common area we have it, reversal has occurred commonly
3 an area we have hit and almost hit, end of year possible
4 an area we hit once earlier this year, possible but likely not for long
complete conjecture of course, no guidance is assumed.