TradeWithTheTrend3344

Market Insights: Support, Resistance, and Fundamentals

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Hey everyone,

At present, the market is demonstrating robust support around the 1809.16 level while simultaneously testing the resistance barrier at 1830. A definitive breakthrough and sustained trading above 1830 are crucial for confirming an upward trend. Although the optimism generated by the recent NFP report, which had adverse implications for the dollar, might be short-lived, there is a chance that the primary trend could persist following a minor technical correction. Several factors bolster this perspective.

The underlying fundamentals lean towards a stronger dollar index. Fed Chair Powell appears resolute in maintaining momentum, consistently addressing concerns related to increasing inflation and a tight market. Furthermore, the upcoming week is significant due to a series of pivotal economic events:

  • Monthly Producer Price Index
  • Release of FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report
  • Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • Initial Jobless Claims
The DXY index is presently undergoing a correction, with the potential for a retest of the previously breached resistance at 105.272 in the short term. Given the global fundamental context, it seems plausible that a renewed growth phase could initiate from this level. However, a prudent approach is necessary, awaiting the release of this week's economic indicators and a technical retest.

Concerning gold, from a technical standpoint, the market has not yet reached the previously mentioned target. Of particular interest is the 1809 level, representing a significant pool of liquidity that might attract market participants. Despite heightened liquidity following news-driven events, gold has fallen short of reaching this zone and has instead experienced a reversal. The candlestick pattern observed on Friday suggests the possibility of local upward movement on Monday.

The immediate short-term target for this upward movement is the 1847-1854 level. Nevertheless, in the medium term, the expectation remains for further declines, especially towards the 1809 and 1800 levels. This anticipation stems from the persistent strictness of U.S. monetary policy, aimed at lowering production costs. Consequently, following a minor retracement, there is a conceivable chance of witnessing a resurgence in the dollar's strength, accompanied by a corresponding decline in the price of gold.

If you have a moment, I'd greatly appreciate your support for my analysis. Your input is genuinely valuable.


TradeWithTheTrend3344


Comment:
If the price crosses and remains above 1853.93, it may signal further upward momentum, potentially leading to price targets extending up to 1876.972
Comment:
Breaking below 1847.073 in gold could trigger a bearish move towards 1833 and 1830, possibly testing the yearly pivot point at 1833.315!
Comment:
Today, our calendar features several bank holidays, which are anticipated to result in decreased liquidity and sporadic fluctuations in market volatility.
Comment:
We are expecting a slight retracement in between the range 1858-1848 before we will see more upside!
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