You have opened the grave of an economic cycle. Before we dig deeper into the nature and consequences of our discovery, we will discuss the background to the thesis and consider first what we know from history a few lessons; (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. A (2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse...
Curve play is a play on the cash rate etc Historic reversals and equities
We are watching a downtrend because of the order flow after the time target based on the wave analysis
An inverted yield curve means a market situation in which the yields offered, for longer maturities, are lower than the yields of the short-term portion of the curve (in this case the "short" is usually considered as the rates up to 2 years). This is a situation that is at first sight counter-intuitive. Those who have studied Finance will certainly remember the...
An inverted yield curve means a market situation in which the yields offered, for longer maturities, are lower than the yields of the short-term portion of the curve (in this case the "short" is usually considered as the rates up to 2 years). This is a situation that is at first sight counter-intuitive. Those who have studied Finance will certainly remember the...
A big picture of what history indicates will happen next. Nothing new here for the Macro people.
First Inversion of the 5/2 spread. This is no less important than the well-known 10-2 spread.
I believe that the most important question - is the secular trend of falling interest rates over or not - is still without answer. In last 30 years, each time 5Y yield got overbought, i.e. RSI got to 80, the trend reversed relatively quickly: in 1994, 2000 and 2006. The first time falling interest rates signaled the start of one of the strongest equity bull...