BigFrenchChicken

BigFrenchChicken Updated 

Background - with Fed raising rates and BTC below 39600, this POV holds. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - access to cash becomes harder --> small tech firms fail (i.e. tokens on ETH blockchain) --> demand for ether lessens (the latter two are a cycle) --> price for ether drops...viability (sustainability argument ensues - this determines the bottom, I am not smart enough to...

BigFrenchChicken Updated 

Looks like we ran out of sellers this morning. The second test of the 2000 ETH low just did not have the volume of sellers needed to push lower. Besides the obvious (everyone got liquidated), here are 3 likely reasons: 1. "B" Part of ABC correction coming in the next week (we have sold off for over a week straight) 2. The Consensus conference is next week/this...

BigFrenchChicken Updated 

Today's close was interesting. MMs pushed BTC down into the close (ETH as well). This makes me believe they are gamma neutral on puts...but can make money by allowing prices to go lower...and we are 10 days or so from expiration. Current call...short against the trend line, cover at the low from earlier today. Also, we had good price action, should have gone...

BigFrenchChicken

Short and sweet...think we test and bounce off 1500 (thanks to a friend for pointing out the levels). we are making lower highs...should have popped out of the "V" and based/consolidated. Instead, we dumped. At these prices? 40+% discount to yesterday's fever pitch buying? We go much lower. The plan, short at the trend, cover at the bottom. Not sure I would...

BigFrenchChicken Updated 

BTC is now taking a leg lower. ETH was weak and BTC was acting as an anchor...limiting increases, BTC now pulling ETH lower. How low? Expecting a bounce at 3150-ish, but we are heading to a test of 2951 and most likely a test of the 50SMA on the daily (currently at 2783). Wouldn't be surprised to see 2400 in the next 2 to 4 weeks, but thinking to see 2951 in...

BigFrenchChicken Updated 

All, Noticing 2 important trends AND have a conclusion - be short anything liquid, lever up on that short (for me ETH) when BTC breaks 55300. 1. Overlaying the SNP helps confirm the direction of BTC . Sometimes (once or twice a week) flashes buy/sell hours in advance. Equity VIX is forecasting the NASDAQ dump..and that dump is spreading. 2. Within the...

BigFrenchChicken Updated 

BTC has been rolling over. Was confused by the rip last weekend, but has lost steam and the rollover continues. The April 25 low broke the March 25ish low, changing the trend from up / neutral, to down (use the daily). I will admit we need a drop to confirm, but this can start slowly. I am seeing the panic to hold up the Alts (nice move trying to rip the...