BobbySpa

BobbySpa

AAPL has sprung to life over the last quarter in anticipation of its WWDC and an announcement of its AI push. The chart suggests that the stock may be fully priced at these levels with what appears to be an ominous head and shoulders pattern. AI hype has reached extreme levels with the SMH up 5% yesterday and NVDA up over 15% since Friday. Not in the business of...

BobbySpa Updated 

NVDA crashed thru 420 support yesterday (after 7 days above that level) down to 400-401 and bounced right up to that level today which is also its earnings week high on lighter than normal volume. Despite today's move, the stock feels heavy and I suspect there is still more work to do on the downside before any further push to the upside, if any, resumes.

BobbySpa

TSLA is up 145% this year including an after hours $15 surge on a deal with GM for GM to use their charging protocol and superchargers. Up 10 days in a row and nearly $100 in six weeks, literally nothing has changed at the company. Margins getting squeezed and demand waining as there is inventory build everywhere. I'm not calling a top here but the facts are...

BobbySpa

SMH could go either way but my guess based on price action over the last couple days is that it will break lower. Little oversold bounce today but hitting downtrend resistance and Fib resistance on light volume. Looking for a break. QQQ helping out with momentum but also about to hit resistance.

BobbySpa

QQQ forming second H&S of the week. 353 looks like it could be todays peak. Light volume move relative to the selloff yesterday. Coming in indicators were very oversold from yesterday. Looks like it will need another leg down to around 346.

BobbySpa Updated 

Since earnings, NVDA has traded within a tight pennant and has reached a state of equilibrium on this 1 hour chart. Looks like it could be forming a H&S working on the right shoulder and a move down to the neckline and possibly the 20 day moving average which resides around the old high of 343 is not out of the possibility. Watching closely today for a rejection...

BobbySpa Updated 

Small caps have moved up to resistance. With Friday's move and todays move my guess is that the next move will be a consolidation of the almost 7% move in the last week. Volume has picked up but I wouldn't be surprised if there is just as much selling as buying into this lift. Economic factors do not have me pounding my fist to buy the most vulnerable companies...

BobbySpa

KWEB had a nice hold at the golden pocket and volume has started to pick up on up days and tail off on down days. With the Nikkei making new 33 year highs and the US markets looking a little long in the tooth, China may be the place to take a shot. Moving averages flattening out and starting to rise. KST, MACD and RSI looking good! Yesterday's move down didn't...

BobbySpa

QQQ looks to be in the process of forming a minor H&S top. Looks like momentum is waning and but for GOOG, AMZN, TSLA holding things up a bit, the weight of AAPL and MSFT going down is causing a standoff at essentially the flat line. The constant rotation thru big cap tech names to work off overbought and oversold conditions can not continue in earnest much...

BobbySpa

SMH getting a lift today from everything except NVDA. AMD TSM and others holding things up and still no real correction in SMH since NVDA earnings and subsequent ramp of all other things "AI". At some point big cap tech and semis will be sold and a correction will ensue. Perhaps sooner than we think.

BobbySpa Updated 

During its WWDC event today AAPL made a new all time high only to close on almost double normal volume close to the lows of the day. Today's engulfing candle could be the start of a much needed market break if they are gonna push any higher for the rest of the year. When AAPL was at the highs of the day semis were back at their opening lows. As AAPL was selling...

BobbySpa

Very clear resistance and support on this one hour chart. AAPL may push slightly thru resistance and form a right shoulder before heading back down. Looking for a correction to support around 174. A bounce from there and rejection around the 177-179 area may be a good oppty to get shorty. Ultimately expecting a break pot support and test of the 50 day.

BobbySpa

Could be....respected the neckline on the open. Let's see how this plays out. AVGO after hours could be the catalyst for the right shoulder completion

BobbySpa Updated 

On the back of the AI frenzy, traders have pushed the QQQ up to Fib resistance and unfilled gaps are within spitting distance of being filled. the SPX also has an unfilled gap at 418. My guess is that these gaps get filled (at least the 348.5) on QQQ and then the market takes a breather after an extraordinary run. Price is trading outside the rising wedge...

BobbySpa Updated 

NVDA after hours reported better than expected numbers on lowered expectations (earnings and revenues for the quarter), but missed last years numbers by a landslide. Year over year earnings were down 46%. This warranted a $45 Billion dollar market cap increase in the pop you see to the underside of the well defined uptrend line thats been in place since January...

BobbySpa

The velocity of AAPL's move and that of its brethren over the first 5 weeks of the year is unremarkable, yes you read that right. After many of the tech giants reached extreme oversold conditions in the last two months of 2022, 2023 has seen these same stocks skyrocket with short covering, no tax loss selling, and "good" economic news, and in this environment...

BobbySpa

The Nasdaq 100 and its constituents look like they are ready for a breather. With cracks in MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, and AMZN already, it's not long before NVDA, TSLA, META and semis turn out the lights on the party. They have all moved too far too fast and are likely one report away from cracking.

BobbySpa Updated 

If AAPL's topping formation (see my AAPL analysis) is any indication, and the Dow's 5300 point move off the October lows is any indication, the right shoulder of the inverse H&S formation should start to get filled as AAPL completes it own right shoulder with a move down. Again, similar to AAPL, the left shoulder, head and right shoulder if formed would line up...