FOTrading

FOTrading

1. Any more bank failure? Bank crisis stabilized after UBS takeover Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank had been injected deposit to restore confidence. We can’t rule out any bank failure in Q2, especially the collapse of Lehman Brother was after the rescue of Bear Stearns. Having said that, the material different between now and the global financial crisis is...

FOTrading

Russia-Ukraine War entered the second year. Most of the commodities skyrocketed after the invasion had returned to or below the pre-war level. Energy is the market focus but the price dropped below the pre-war level and might not have enough geopolitical moment to rebound unless the war fully escalates and spreads to other countries. The weakness of wheat price...

FOTrading

Thanks to a strong January employment report, the greenback made an impressive comeback from the weakness since Q4. Someone might expect the strength could persist and even test 2022’s high, but I regard this as a rebound and the dollar will likely trade in a range between 100 to 108 (Dollar Index basis) in 1H 2023. First of all, the strength of greenback last...

FOTrading

Happy New Year of Rabbit! We will have a busy week. In addition to companies keep reporting result (Four of the FANNG companies will report earnings this week), other major events include a decisive Fed meeting, ECB meeting, BOE meeting, US employment data and OPEC+ meeting. Everyone’s focus will be on Fed meeting. Market fully expects a 25bp rise this week, and...

FOTrading

Gold moved opposite to the dollar in 2022. Since the greenback has been strengthening against major currencies, the gold did not perform very well and reached a low of USD1,618 (COMEX Gold Futures) before recovering by the end of the year. However, things might change in 2023 and there are several important factors supporting the gold price. We might expect gold...

FOTrading

After a turbulent 2022, there will be a lot of factors affecting the investment market in 2023. I have picked three most important ones to talk about. • When will Fed stop hiking rate? • Will there be a global recession? • How could China’s reopening impact the market? When will Fed stop hiking rate? I respect Fed’s pivot table showing Fed Fund Rate will go up...