IanColeman

IanColeman

NZD Basket - despite lower inflation expectations on Feb 13, the selloff in NZD with short-lived. An analyst from ANZ Bank highlighted scope for further rate hikes. ASB Bank has added fuel to this fire overnight. Money markets are pricing around a 78.4% chance that the RBNZ will keep rates unchanged at next week's meeting. There is a 21.6% probability of a 25-bps...

IanColeman

AUD Basket - building a bearish Gartley formation. The medium-term bias is to sell into the completion of the pattern close to 11.52. JPY Basket - building a bullish Crab formation. Scope for further losses but dips to be bought close to 6418. Correlation studies suggest selling into gains for AUD/JPY. AUDJPY - the intraday chart highlights the cross moving...

IanColeman

❗ **Trade Plan (Live): I sold GBP/JPY at 188.90** GBP Basket - lower-than-expected inflation data has resulted in sterling (GBP) moving to the downside. The basket highlights the completion of a bearish Gartley formation. JPY Basket - moving lower within a Crab formation. This will be completed at 6,418. We are seeing a correction to the upside close to the...

IanColeman

CHF Basket - Lower-than-expected Swiss inflation has resulted in the single currency moving to the downside. While the figure is encouraging, the breakdown of the release showing a 2% Y/Y increase for domestic products will be a point of concern for the switch National Bank (source Reuters). From a technical standpoint, the basket highlights support at 894. I look...

IanColeman

EUR Basket - the basket has reached the resistance zone of 595-596. I am looking for a reaction to the downside. AUD Basket - the intraday chart offers a bullish bias. I am looking for a move higher within the CD leg of a Gartley formation. Correlation studies suggest a sustained move to the downside in EUR/AUD. EUR/AUD - the daily chart highlights the cross...

IanColeman

EUR Basket – the Euro continues to trade within a consolidating range. With resistance located at 595 and 596, I look for limited upside pressure. Rallies to be sold. DXY (USD Index) - we have seen a correction to the downside. Support levels are located at 103.20 and 103.18. With the 61.8% Fibonacci support located at 103.19, I look for dips to be...

IanColeman

DXY (USD Index) - we have seen a correction to the downside. Support levels are located at 103.20 and 103.18. With the 61.8% Fibonacci support located at 103.19, I look for dips to be bought. JPY Basket - we have seen a breakout of the expanding wedge formation to the downside. This pattern has a measured move target of 6573. We look to be building a Crab...

IanColeman

DXY (USD Index) - the index continued to move higher from Friday's low of 102.53. The next significant upside barrier is the 61.8% retracement level at 104.39. GBP Basket - continues to move to the downside. Support is located at 1985 and 1984. A move to 1984 will complete a bullish Crab pattern. Correlation studies suggest buying dips in sterling (GBP). GBP/USD...

IanColeman

Trade Plan (Pending): I am buying EUR/USD at 1.0799 DXY (USD Index) - the index continues to lack any clear direction with spikes seen in both directions for the last 8 days. The intraday chart highlights the last sell-off stalling at 102.77. This is the 61.8% Fibonacci level. That would suggest we have scope to build a bullish Gartley pattern at 102.60, with the...

IanColeman

The single currency baskets highlight buying dips in EUR and selling rallies in AUD. This correlation suggests buying dips in EUR/AUD. Bespoke support is located at 1.6210 and 1.6188. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.6430. Price action has formed a bullish Ending Wedge pattern. This formation has a measured move target of 1.6802. Projecting a 261.8% extension...

IanColeman

DXY (USD Index) - the daily chart highlights the index moving higher within the BC leg of a Gartley pattern. A common retracement is 38.2% of the last decline. This level is located at 103.93. Bespoke resistance is located at 104.08 and 104.16. The Gartley will be completed at 100.80. Mixed trading has resulted in an Expanding Wedge pattern being posted on the...

IanColeman

DXY (USD Index) - the index highlights two timeframes that offer a bias to sell rallies. The issue is, there are two different resistance zones: • The daily chart highlights the index moving higher within the BC leg of the Gartley formation. A common retracement level is 38.2% of the last decline. This is located at 103.93. Bespoke resistance is located at...

IanColeman

DXY (USD Index) - although the index traded to the highest level in six days yesterday, our resistance barrier of 103.38-103.42 stalled buying interest. We are assessed as trading within the BC leg of a Gartley formation. A common retracement level is 38.2% of the last decline. This is located at 103.93. My bias is to sell into rallies. Euro Basket - the move to...

IanColeman

DXY (USD index)- the daily chart highlights the index stalling and correcting higher close to the 61.8% pullback level of 102.11. This would suggest we are currently within the bullish BC leg of a Gartley formation. The one-hour chart highlights an Expanding Wedge pattern. This formation has an eventual bias to break to the upside. A break of 102.50 is needed to...

IanColeman

DXY (USD Index) - sellers emerged again on Friday, breaking the index out of the intraday consolidating channel formation to the downside. This negative sentiment has continued overnight. The daily chart highlights a projected confluence level for the AB leg of a Bat formation located at 102.67. NZD/USD - the pair continues to move higher from the 0.5859 swing...

IanColeman

DXY (USD Index) - although the index posted two positive days in succession, sellers emerged at 103.80 with follow-through bearish momentum resulting in most of the initial daily gains being overturned. This negative sentiment has continued overnight. The index offers no clear bias at current levels. Our preferred stance is to buy into dips at the 102.67 projected...

IanColeman

The weekly chart has posted a bearish Outside Candle. The monthly chart is likely to highlight the same formation. This 2-candle pattern is often seen at the top of a trend and the start of a new downward bias. The four-hour chart highlights the completion of a bearish 5-wave count at 147.15. The Elliott Wave theory would suggest we are now in a corrective 3-wave...

IanColeman

US crude prices have crept higher from the $72.13 base. Price is likely to consolidate ahead of the OPEC+ plus meeting. Russia and Saudi Arabia are likely to press for extending or possibly increasing, supply cuts next year. This is to offset the expected weak demand in 2024. From a technical perspective, there is ample scope for a larger correction towards...