mtb1980

mtb1980 Updated 

Retail Diesel – Monthly: Currently resting at monthly support of 5.31. (Ichimoku indicator not shown) Daily and weekly swings above and below the blue Tenkan line should be expected. A monthly close below could open the door to the red Kijun line at 4.09. This would be very strong support on a monthly scale. There was a 5 leg event from the 02’ low to the...

mtb1980 Updated 

Are commodities bullish, bearish, or going sideways? Big picture, long term still feels bullish...

mtb1980 Updated 

10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the current market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be current price, 8.50, or 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the...

mtb1980 Updated 

10yr Corn outlook: Potential course of the Bean market for the next 10 years. Previous inflationary markets have caused for the multi year market structure to step up in price ranges. Before that range is found, Beans will need to mark a pivot high enough to ration some future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future...

mtb1980

Continuous Corn – Weekly: (Busy Chart) Currently in a sideways grinder going into an acres battle and Weather Market. Do not hesitate to Make decisions. The Red downtrending pitchfork controls the trend. Nearby resistance against the upper red line is set up with the 6.93 retracement target but volume by price resistance at 6.75-6.80. If the red line is broken...

mtb1980 Updated 

Lumber and 30 year Mortgage – weekly scale: FRED 30 year rates lag most mortgage rates already above 5%. It has been since 2018 since rates were above 5% and lumber was sub 300.00. High priced lumber (any high priced commodity) will eventually correct itself. High prices cure high prices. Now the pinch is on and rates are reacting. Cost of money is no longer...

mtb1980 Updated 

S&P 500 vs its stocks above the 200 day MA: Bottom chart shows the S&P since 2008. The chart on top, tracks the percentage of stocks above their 200 day Moving average for stocks that make up the S&P 500 . In April of 2021, 96% of the S&P stocks traded above their 200 day MA. Currently just 21% remain above their 200 day MA. Below the 30% thresh-hold it would...

mtb1980

DE (Deere & Co aka John Deer) is seeing a correction move lower off its recent highs. Momentum lower will target the $400 to $350 area. Risk Identified between $300 and $250. A sustained move above the November high at $448.40 would challenge the Bears....

mtb1980

The peak highs in DE and AGCO during bullish markets tend to coincide with the highs in Corn Futures. DE (Deer & Co) and AGCO are attractive growth and dividend paying stocks that do well in steady to strong economies even without strong Ag futures markets because of their exposure to the construction and infrastructure sectors . They tend to over-perform in...

mtb1980

US Dollar - Continuous Weekly: Looking for support in the 102 to 103 area. Still unsure if this potential low would be for a bear market rally or a swing low for a correction move in and continue up in the bull market

mtb1980

Cattle – Weekly Continuous: The gray vertical bars represent the expiration month of labeled contract and have prices of each contract as of today labeled. The 2019 low has provided a pivot for a parallel uptrend line (highlighted in yellow) that has acted as a strong magnet since moving up off the covid crash low. Any of the lines could act as Support or...

mtb1980

Hogs - Weekly Continuous: The gray vertical bars represent the expiration month of labeled contract and have prices of each contract as of today labeled. The deferred contracts can use the uptrend/downtrend lines to determine areas to be hedged. The June 21' high has provided a pivot for a down trend line that has acted as a strong area of resistance. Currently...

mtb1980

Continuous Hogs- Weekly: Currently plotting against the December contract. Uptrend lines off swing lows, and downtrend lines off swing highs. Creates areas to watch for action and reaction points.

mtb1980

November23 Soybeans – Weekly: *The 13.98 to 14.22 area is a critical point for Nov23 beans and is a place that deserves some risk off attention* Using the swing high at 14.48 to swing low at 12.17 for retracement targets. Initial targets looking at 13.98 to 14.22 area. Will look at each retracement level for targets up to the 162% retracement of 15.91. Could...

mtb1980

January23 Soybeans – Daily: Back to a daily chart with a few weeks remaining on the Jan contract and trying to narrow the focus for end of year contract activity. The break above the black downtrend line was short lived, Thursday’s close found support at the red Tenkan line. Monday & Tuesday need to come out strong and sustain price above the cloud at 14.42 and...

mtb1980

Soybean – Weekly Cont: The cloud above offers tough resistance at last week’s high of 14.77. A weekly close into the cloud above 14.77, the red Tenkan line will be the next strong resistance at 15.36 (also a 50% retracement target). Support below is the blue Tenkan line at 14.14 and then an uptrend line climbing from 14.00. A failure below could have beans...

mtb1980

December 23 Corn - Weekly: The market structure is difficult to try and define at this stage, we remain in a very sensitive marketplace. Price and Time targets can be fluid, but for now, I like the above targeted areas with the percentage sold as labeled. We do need to be ready to pivot earlier this year to get hedges on against the targets above. **Be ready to...

mtb1980

March23 Corn – Weekly: To much noise in the markets keeps me using weekly charts instead of daily charts. A break into the cloud and move below the blue Tenkan line was a concern, but each week found support against the red Kijun line (currently 6.60). A weekly close below 6.60 now could see continued weakness down to the bottom of the cloud at 6.20. The...