R0llins_

R0llins_

Wheat's bull run since mid March has been driven by weather concerns as a La Nina looks increasingly probable, even as fundamentals of ample supply remain bearish. Listening to commentators on the ground who don't see what the fuss is about with plentiful supply, it does occur whether they're thinking enough in terms of potential climate anomalies. This could be...

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Wheat has completed five Elliot waves up and with bearish fundamentals on the ground remaining, an ABC correction may now be in order. If the rally has in fact exhausted itself, then a double-top which has often followed wheat rallies would not be unusual here. The conditions for another bounce off shorter time frame averages to yesterday's highs to form that...

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On wheat's daily chart, the rally appears to have completed 5 Elliot waves up. Bearish fundamentals of current ample supply may now play out in an ABC correction, though how deep with a La Nina expected to affect Russia it remains to be seen. Beyond an ABC correction, it's possible to consider that said bearish fundamentals may see an impulse all the way down to...

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Doge on the weekly has been following a beautiful parabola. Now on the way back up, 4 waves can be counted from an impulse starting in mid October 23 and the 5th appears to be locked and loaded. Should this prove to be the case, the next obvious stop is the 1.618 Fib at around 35 cents. Once there, an ABC correction and possibly further consolidation would make...

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Wheat saw another bullish end to the week after a favorable USDA report. In the last post, we looked in TA terms at whether the current rally's first impulse occurred in March or on April 19th. The latter (in pink numbers) seems to have been the case as we saw the 5th wave up to near the 2.618 Fib. If this analysis continues to hold true, TA wise an ABC...

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Wheat has rallied since April 19 due to short covering and various weather concerns, and various analysts expect the grain to return sooner or later to the fundamentals ample supply. From an Elliot Waves perspective on a daily chart, it's possible to see a 5 wave structure marked in yellow 1-5. However, while the rally proper began on April 19, it's not...

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Concerns over weather and the potential for climate anomalies have seen a bullish trend in wheat recently. However and as analysts are at pains to point out, fundamentals on the ground like ample supply are still bearish. But now that wheat has broken through the 200MA in white and consolidated, it's possible that bullish sentiment may remain into the new week....

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Rain forecasts in Russia have led to profit taking in wheat, but the question remains how bullish (as opposed to short covering) was this rally? If the price can keep its head above the 200MA, TA-wise longs may be worth accumulating. While professional analysis points out that wheat's fundamentals in terms of oversupply are still very bearish, and thus an...

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Wheat has been in a price normalization phase after the potential catastrophe of Russia's full scale invasion of its democratic neighbor. Since June 23, bulls have made several attempt to break and hold the daily 200MA, shown in green circles above. The first four attempts can be read as two sets of double tops. Even if this rally can't hold the 200, chances of...

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With rate cut questions fueled by the West's bumbling towards another Mid-East war, palladium bears have returned the recent pump to sender with a vengeance. Factor in more EVs and the future for the PGMs looks bleak, right? But a closer look suggests not is all as it seems for these precious metals with their unique properties. A recent Reuters article from...

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They say only deaths and taxes are certain, and yet palladium's recent pump and dump has been so clockwork it puts German trains to shame. They also say markets never travel in straight lines, but clearly they haven't traded palladium which has now retraced all the way back to where it pumped from. On the 4 hourly chart, the precious metal has been swimming with...

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After a fantastic pump, the profit taking dump has been relentlessly orderly and is now at a crossroads. Currently bouncing off the .786 Fib, will we see a bullish trend emerge with a higher monthly high, or will demand continue to lag and its bear channel resume? One thing that may be worth considering here is palladium's importance in hydrogen energy production....

R0llins_ Updated 

Palladium had been in a bearish channel for some time, but after a double bottom it's gone W in a big way. That way has been nearly vertical but is now looks exhausted. Having been rejected from the 1.618 Fib, profit taking will be next as everyone gets ready to race for the door. Looking closer on the 4H chart, the 50MA is about to cross up over the 200, which is...

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On the daily, the 20MA is about to cross up over the 100. This after bouncing off the .618 Fib as support. While commentary is mostly still at least slightly bearish on Wheat, or at least not bullish, due to ample supply, there are several obvious factors going forward that make continued record production uncertain. Furthermore, the real cost of producing wheat,...