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Risk and Time are in opposite sides of a coin. Meaning what is unknown equals risk. Markets are forward pricing mechanism, meaning when something is known - usually was already priced in (bought with risk). H.Marks theory was you should buy things in advance, when there was hypothetical most risk; in practice it would be the least risk (as shown in graph). As...

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Copper bullish on economic growth; Gold (bull) during recessions, downturns, risks, etc. Another one is Silver/Gold (silver is industrial metal).

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Intermarket analysis of Oil ETF relative to SPX. This graph works because oil moves based on inflation, economy, commodities etc. Some of these spots were almost "risk free" (until proven otherwise). Meaning 100% - until something changes. Where are we now? USO needs to find support - and then we see.

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Pretty cool feature. You can use the 9month moving average in S5TH (spx stocks above the 200dma) to time the market cycle. Figure out the upward momentum (with help of game theory and TNX cycle). In practice and theory peoples options should be predictable because everyone act in their self-interest, seeking safety (hypothetical riskfree) and potential. I use...

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I think something like this make sense? We are at a 1st leg or wave of impulse, that is led by early adapters. 2nd leg up would be BTC outperforming SPX. 3rd wave would be a market chop w/ still some opportunities. 1st wave -> buy when it's cheap (bellow 70k crowd). Then comes rally to 120-150k. Before it becomes too expensive. 2nd and 3rd wave are led by ppl...

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RIG monthly back-tests, high probability using game theory (and macro/b-cycle). Price action following.. Self explanatory.

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experimenting w/ macd indicator. connecting trend for SMA. Crude oil see if it has any predictive properties

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the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out. TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down. Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if...

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Typical liquidity cycle is 5-6 years long (65m). Buy bitcoin before an upswing (or end of QT) and sell when liquidity tightens. Macro is the best way to analyze markets? Adjust your stakes based on position of the cycle. Markets can have risk-on, risk-off episodes. Where Bitcoin is a risk-on asset. Use 10Y-02Y for guidance.

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Looking back, commodities had a high conviction in february based on a longterm trend. Combining macd and BB break out. Markets have either risk-on sentiment or defensive. During risk-on phase people want to put money to work, there is too much money. During risk-off or defensive, people want money and safety. Assets become too expensive. Bitcoin rallies...

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high convenience entries for Gold using GOLD/SPX, macd + BB. 2024: feb, march 2020: jan 2022: june (resistance)

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In 26th dec, there was a high probability weakness in IWM based on this graph. Top of BB's and impulse has no potential, yet important resistance/break out. //rising TNX is bad for cyclicals or small caps.

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High probability entries using TNX trend, macd and BB. Broad market, cyclicals basics. price and macd divergence bearish. bullish if macd is at support and BB is at support/breakout. can combine w/ the trend lines? tightening BB means accumulation, break outs. just for fun and learning purposes. //stay w/ the dominant trend.

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Solar stocks follow energy prices (crude oil) and AMEX:USO (oil etf) is about to break out. I read that chinese are outcompeting the west in cheaper solar products. ie NYSE:JKS TNX is at bull market, crude oil and yields correlate (not sure which one cause the other). I look at everything trough probabilities since nothing is ever known. Stocks do bad when...

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ie minimize risk by buying positions when both MAs(price action) fits macd potential. Divergence is bearish. maximize gains by ONLY buying good positions.

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Looking back, high probability positions buying RIG using macd and fib (50%). Following OSX sector, XLE. XLE/SPY.

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building positions with macd and fibonacci (50% break out). w/ all the fundamental reasons:) rising inflation theme. Bullish TNX momentum etc. u could buy big oil, oil drillers or NRGU. Beginning at feb or march; XOM was +15%. high probability.

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50% (fib) is a motivational driver. 60% motivates. 100% motivates.. and out of drivers. people make up stories and reasons why something runs, with the PT's and so on? I find Fibonacci to be convenient? (ie fib shows you the strength of trend, that u cant fake. since it's math)