Moves in Treasury yields during the previous week are showing that the market has already priced all known information, and waiting for new ones in order to decide on a further action to the up or downside. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was moving between levels of 4.51% down to 4.42% on one occasion. The majority of deals were around the 4.5% level. It should be...
This is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023...
Investors are still weightening the latest inflation data posted during the previous week. Posted inflation figures were in line with the market estimate. Inflation rate reached 3.4% on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April. By putting it into a perspective of jobs data and consumer sentiment, inventors are perceiving that the first rate cut...
Some weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from...
Daily chart of US 10 Year Bond As per image, we have had two drives up, and are finding support here, so i would think there is at least one more drive up. I'll be looking to get long as per my diagram shown, with SL and TP as shown.
Lows of 4.420% was printed this trading week with minimal draws to buyside liquidity as yields had been trading within the weekly fair value gap. Intraday-week market structure shift occurred during Thursdays US AM session before a minor retracement below consequent encroachment @ 4.458 ensued. This leaves buyside ripe for the takings and I’ve got my eyes on 4.549%.
Crash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell"
What would happen if the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 20%? The clear five-wave pattern in bond yields is causing concern.
Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher. And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year. BUT BUT BUT The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn...
I will start forecasting full years in advance and provide updates from there finally understand how the bond markets works dont be fooled folk 2024 nasdaq is crashing market is overbought the recovery was too quick easy come easy go and only the informed are preparing their shorts if u appreciate my work like, tip, comment, follow
rate is moving up in yellow parallel channel lower yellow line is working as perfect trend line in recent may fomc fed has said he neither see stag or flation if there are no hike in future then lower trend line must break if second wave of rate hike is coming then trend line must hold and it can go up 5%
US10Y > 8% what happen for those house/ car mortgage? What happen to #gold when big player have "guaranteed" in bank deposits? What happen to "healthy" bank's "stock"?..
With predominantly bearish price action during the week, intraday sentiment is more shifted towards a continuation to the downside at this current time. Due to higher time frame narrative, I am looking out for a retracement to 4.563% hourly fair value gap. Candle body closure below 4.455% will negate the idea.
During the previous period the market was trying to price its expectations of a less than three rate cuts during the course of this year, giving up on the Fed's announcement from the latest FOMC meeting. The meeting held on May 1st, showed that the market was right in its assumptions, considering that the emerging US inflation might put halt on rate cuts this...
Last week was packed of rangebound action but Wednesday was the day that changed the market structure, shifting to the downside. Expecting a relief rally upto 4.450%
Late last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage...
Good Morning Everyone! The 2Yr Yield is retesting the recent support level, highlighted by arrows. The 10Yr #yield is currently breaking the recent uptrend. The yellow box was highlighted in the last post showing the WEAKNESS. However, forgot to speak on that yesterday (see profile for more info). They cannot lower #interestrates... But they must, at least...