VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:LULU - clearly there's something wrong on a day like today where mkt is ATH and moving higher and 23x next year PE LULU is getting crushed. this is a bad omen for EPS, or the expectations need to come down and the stock is incorporating this. the real conundrum is beyond a beat (if that's the case this RIPS), the stock is going to...

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5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:PANW - probably a beat and one you'd want to dip buy. seem to be doing well in the field from what i gather as well, and of course the insider congressfolks own it, which adds to the allure of owning it. as mentioned in a previous comment, this thing is not cheap - 50x PE and LSD fcf yields... but if they can deliver this is going to...

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5/20/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:KEYS - not a short though i think my bias here is -ve all together. EPS that won't reach peak ('23) levels until a few years is a tough hurdle, especially at 20x. add to this 4% fcf yields which is fine, but not exceptional for this mediocre growth. at best this is an index tracker, and perhaps you have a more nuanced view on EPS -...

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5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ZM - as much as thef fundamental "gut" tells me this is a layup into earnings, DD FCF yields, when adj. for net cash the PE is 8-9x. in theory if the sales *don't* decline this year - that's stupid cheap. also any talk of AI tools and ppl's willingness to use/pay for additional features should send this thing. on the converse, the...

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5/17/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NICE - still wrapping my hands around the asset itself (so will re-engage in the coming weeks/ or next Q on a more nuanced view). however, the key question i'm asking are a few things 1) is it growing above *real* inflation which is probably DD, at least in the terminal? "yes" is the answer - 15% and confirmed by the recent print +...

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in-line result and 2Q and FY guides are a touch below consensus. that's a no-touch in this environment. let's be clear - great (if not the best) IT transformation co that will benefit from a lot of the secular trends in the coming years. however, in order to sustain software-esque multiples >20x PE... you need to be beating/ raising and doing something that's not...

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5/16/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:CPRT - love the company, really hard to buy the stock here. high 30s PE, >10x sales, 2% fcf yield. and that gets you 10% pa top line growth? the stock is a clear outperfomer v. the broader market since forever, so it's hard to fade/ short the name. shorting has been miserable in this tape anyway. add to the fact that in-line and...

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5/16/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:DOCS - looks modestly interesting b/c the bar looks low-ish for a beat and it's a few days to cover. however, the prior Q's MSD+ revenue beat was sold down hard and without relief until today and the stock divided by SPY (the comp i benchmark everything by) is a bleed forever. it's not like valuation is a steal at 15% pa growth 7.5x...

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5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NXT - industrial solar w/ unique IP/ solution and the best industry growth likely has the fewest overhangs as well as bagholders involved. while anyone can see rates picture limits investments industry-wide, these guys should continue to grow through the '24 trough (not the case for... any other solar i can find, esp the consumer...

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5/15/25 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NICE - setup reminds me a bit of NYSE:DT into the close y day as well as other SaaS names. valuation remains reasonable for 15% growth, a little over 5x sales, low 20s PE, 3.5% fcf yield. seems to check the boxes there. i'd previously set a greedier target of lower $200's for entry, but this tape seems to want to basically buy all...

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5/16/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:YOU - has become my largest single name (almost a 15% position for me, from 0% into EPS). i like it anywhere under $20. the math here is simple - at $17.5 today, you're basically buying $2.5 bn of market cap and get net cash of $500 of net cash (don't use the trading view numbers, they don't include marketable securities - i.e. "cash...

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5/15/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:SHLS - well... here we go 6's. can enter now below the $6.5 level by selling 6/21 7.5C's for 30c if you desire. we start to hit below 30c lower from this entry... and i will begin buying size without selling C's. slippery one but 1) not the first bid in this tape b/c 2) trough EPS this yr w/o look thru 3) some silly lawsuits that are...

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5/15/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:WMT - 24x fwd PE and barely 3.5% yield for this anemic grower into the most cashed strapped consumers. google trends look awful. trends.google.com i'd guess any pop gets faded v quickly. pricing power is for the brands, not the retailers. hard to sell a cost cutting/ brand squeeze story for a company that's already doing this to the...

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5/14/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:DT - first time looking at this name. checks all my boxes. revenue >25% growth, sub 10x sales (under 40x PE), throws off substantial cash and yields 3-4% depending on how bullish/bearish you are which for a name growing at this rate is a good buy all else equal. stock seems to have gotten ahead of itself in the last print and looking...

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5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:DLO - tough biz to underwrite, let's get that clear. accusations. new mgmt. in some weird regions (that's the biz fam). competition in some well-established players ayden MT? ... but into the print, i think this is one that's setting up for a miss and realistically the downside here is probably 15-20% and the upside is equal AND it's...

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5/14/24 - vrockstar - COINEX:OREUSDT - among the 70+ equities posts i made, i do look at crypto as well and while this is MUCH more speculative, i'm flagging TSX:ORE as something that's worth looking into. 1) you don't have to necessarily buy it - you can mine it in your browser ore.supply 2) the proof of work concept is quite interesting IMO b/c a. this...

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5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:RUM - of the 3 options we always have, buy/sell/hold... buying is probably the worst option. almost kind of weird how the stock is worth $2.5 bn in this tape - $100 mm in revenue, 25x sales? gross profit mgn is actually getting worse? they're spending more in opex? $200 mm in the bank and they minimally burn $100 mm this year? look -...

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5/13/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:RPD - taking a closer look today on the move and this is a sickly looking move. while we might get a bid from current owners, what i struggle w/ here is the 7% revenue growth which seems "okay" and the mid 3's sales multiple on fwd ests. is also "reasonable" as well as the high teens PE ratio (assuming >2$ EPS this yr). but the issue...