Ah ha! I have a likely answer to the Bitcoin Dominance quandary which I mentioned in updated comments on my prior idea Refuting OPTICALARTdotCOM’s $14k Crash.
I’m short on Bitcoin for another wick low in next week or two. Then I am savagely long going into end of Q1. After which I will probably turn egregiously bearish expecting a flash crash of Bitcoin’s typical dumping drama.
Readers should catch up on my latest comments I have added to that prior idea (which linked below this one) which elaborate on my latest stance and reasoning.
Monthly and weekly Accumulation/Distribution Indicator rises on accumulation, declines on distribution and peaks/bottoms on change in direction. Given the formula then a monthly close near the high in January far above a severe wick low, will dramatically demarcate a monthly bottom reversal.
Given the history of the indicator there’s no way Bitcoin will make a new ATH in January (c.f. 14:20 mark in video Bitcoin Why You Shouldn't Expect $60,000 Price In January 2022 by Eric Krown Crypto). Thus very likely any last bounce in BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) will be on final, posited incoming wick low. Subsequently altcoins will likely outperform until BTC makes a new ATH causing to retail stampede back into BTC. Remember Q1 is usually altcoin season.
A comment I wrote on said video:
Incorrect terminology 14:20 'slope change' on accumulation/distribution tops and bottoms. You mean slope positive or negative polarity flip. The slope is always changing.
Also note that given the formula for that indicator if January closes near to a significant high (e.g. 56k not ATH) after a severe wick low that would be a dramatic reversal demarcating a bottom for the A/D indicator. The weekly A/D bottom mimicking 2013 double peaks scenario is also lining up with my projection for a Jan 7 – 18 final capitulation low.
As you know Bitcoin has been beset by hashrate dump from China over the summer which has now been restored to ATHs with price lagging behind because of massive China selling because Chinese exchanges are banned as of Dec 31. Combine with this interest rate risk off dump due to cerveza omnicrow FUD which has also now reversed to the upside. One more dump on BTC then BTC on the way to a massive bullish ascending triangle breakout that has been forming the entire 2021. The spring has been fully coiled, one final slingshot pullback wick low to launch to 160k by April.
I’m short on Bitcoin for another wick low in next week or two. Then I am savagely long going into end of Q1. After which I will probably turn egregiously bearish expecting a flash crash of Bitcoin’s typical dumping drama.
Readers should catch up on my latest comments I have added to that prior idea (which linked below this one) which elaborate on my latest stance and reasoning.
Monthly and weekly Accumulation/Distribution Indicator rises on accumulation, declines on distribution and peaks/bottoms on change in direction. Given the formula then a monthly close near the high in January far above a severe wick low, will dramatically demarcate a monthly bottom reversal.
Given the history of the indicator there’s no way Bitcoin will make a new ATH in January (c.f. 14:20 mark in video Bitcoin Why You Shouldn't Expect $60,000 Price In January 2022 by Eric Krown Crypto). Thus very likely any last bounce in BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) will be on final, posited incoming wick low. Subsequently altcoins will likely outperform until BTC makes a new ATH causing to retail stampede back into BTC. Remember Q1 is usually altcoin season.
A comment I wrote on said video:
Incorrect terminology 14:20 'slope change' on accumulation/distribution tops and bottoms. You mean slope positive or negative polarity flip. The slope is always changing.
Also note that given the formula for that indicator if January closes near to a significant high (e.g. 56k not ATH) after a severe wick low that would be a dramatic reversal demarcating a bottom for the A/D indicator. The weekly A/D bottom mimicking 2013 double peaks scenario is also lining up with my projection for a Jan 7 – 18 final capitulation low.
As you know Bitcoin has been beset by hashrate dump from China over the summer which has now been restored to ATHs with price lagging behind because of massive China selling because Chinese exchanges are banned as of Dec 31. Combine with this interest rate risk off dump due to cerveza omnicrow FUD which has also now reversed to the upside. One more dump on BTC then BTC on the way to a massive bullish ascending triangle breakout that has been forming the entire 2021. The spring has been fully coiled, one final slingshot pullback wick low to launch to 160k by April.
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Another Typo: Interest rates plunged…
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Alternative terminal impulse Elliot Wave scenario I have been warning about after the completion of this wave 3 by perhaps April. We will be watching for the Pi Cycle Top indicator to tells us when Bitcoin has topped again as it has demarcated every major top in the entire history of Bitcoin. Refer to my prior ideas for the Pi Cycle Top indicator chart.
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On the lower timeframes the March 2020 cerveza sickness crash created a terminal impulse Elliot Wave condition (i.e. wave 2 more than 61.8% retracement of wave 1) which requires in every instance the wave 4 to decline back below the top of wave 1. I had already defended this concept with references in my prior ideas.
I should note that if we instead analyze the Elliot Wave counts on the monthly candles chart and ignore that March 2020 cerveza sickness wick low which otherwise creates the posited terminal impulse invariant then we do not have to expect wave 4 to crash below $14k. Thus wave 4 could already have completed and we cold already be in wave 5 in this case:
I should note that if we instead analyze the Elliot Wave counts on the monthly candles chart and ignore that March 2020 cerveza sickness wick low which otherwise creates the posited terminal impulse invariant then we do not have to expect wave 4 to crash below $14k. Thus wave 4 could already have completed and we cold already be in wave 5 in this case:
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Lol the Chinese oligarchs have been trying to hold Bitcoin down as long as they can either so they can accumulate more before it rockets to ~160+k or because they are dumb enough to think they can fight against Bitcoin and thus handing all of a huge gift to buy on a correction.
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Again reiterating the possibility of Satoshi’s (aka Rothchild’s) legacy Bitcoin (not BSV!) — The Real Bitcoin — continuing on and the “official” (for n00bs) Bitcoin Core (aka Blockstream, Taproot, SegWit, Lightning Networks) that everyone erroneously thinks is the real Bitcoin dying a fiery ANYONECANSPEND death spiral:
P.S. the Real Bitcoin looks like a nonsense site on purpose so only those who are functionally literate in this technology and game theory will understand its significance.
P.S. the Real Bitcoin looks like a nonsense site on purpose so only those who are functionally literate in this technology and game theory will understand its significance.
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TYPO: “peaks/bottoms on change in Bitcoin’s price direction”
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Why is Q1 altcoin season? Could it be that altcoins are mostly retail investors and that is when they receive their tax rebates?
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Comment:
Very clear repeating pattern on the short and longer time frames.
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Bingo! Exactly as predicted. I am buying for a bounce, because look a very clear bullish divergence on all time frames up to a 4 hourly.
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My stop losses triggered. Look like a spike down to ~$42k underway before a bounce.
This more closely mimics the overall pattern from June/July which was the other possibility in mind.
This more closely mimics the overall pattern from June/July which was the other possibility in mind.
Markets do not peak until weeks or months after Fed starts raising the Fed funds rate. They are not even close to doing that until March. For now they are still adding QE just decreasing the amount of increase they are buying each month. Inflation will go crazy, interest rate expectations will continue to rise, Bitcoin will go parabolic.