As an update, I just want to say, in the 1-6 month range, technical analysis may not be very useful right now. Intra-day, weekly even, it could still be used to gauge market sentiment and bias but fundamentals will win if you want to say, where will we be at the end of year?
And rather than technical analysis, it really is the confluence and timing of these economic forces, combined with daily/hourly innuendo technical signals that will determine any answer to, direction one week, one month, one year out from now.
Because, this is the setup:
We are currently in a bear trend
If earnings are good, we will get a relief rally
Eventually between recession and anti-globalization, we will return to our bear trend
And for the next 3 months, I can safely guarantee you, somewhere in the next 3 years, we'll be lower than we are.
And if everything goes according to plan, in 5 years we will be in the 5000's for S&P. So, I am currently trading on intraday signals, but not much to share as they disappear before I can sneeze. But I may be here and there and provide general commentary on the mood in the markets. We're currently waiting for earnings and letting the ripple effects of central bank actions settle atm.
And rather than technical analysis, it really is the confluence and timing of these economic forces, combined with daily/hourly innuendo technical signals that will determine any answer to, direction one week, one month, one year out from now.
Because, this is the setup:
We are currently in a bear trend
If earnings are good, we will get a relief rally
Eventually between recession and anti-globalization, we will return to our bear trend
And for the next 3 months, I can safely guarantee you, somewhere in the next 3 years, we'll be lower than we are.
And if everything goes according to plan, in 5 years we will be in the 5000's for S&P. So, I am currently trading on intraday signals, but not much to share as they disappear before I can sneeze. But I may be here and there and provide general commentary on the mood in the markets. We're currently waiting for earnings and letting the ripple effects of central bank actions settle atm.
Comment:
For those who need some pretty lines to stare at, here's my projections, I think its to about Oct 18
Comment:
And so this is what I'm focusing on, with no long term assumptions.
I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.