I've seen a lot of $SPY analysis on this site. So many people also try to call for the big moves, especially on the downside. And a lot of people are WTF about the current state of the market. And yes, it has been a wild 2 weeks, or maybe 2021 all in all so far. And yes, volume and big percent moves are way down since 2011, maybe even since 2008. And most of the time, it seems like the market has just been magically floating upwards, but not at any speed under which many people can profit from.
So I'm short this week, but probably still long overall.
This week on capitol hill, will be the Senate trial of President Trump. We just had a big move up from last week, it doesn't seem like the masses are coordinating anything and $GLD $TLT and $UUP have diverged from their recent movements. I don't know why the market was pushed up last minute Thursday, I know the market didn't really know what to do with it Friday, adding no new momentum. The week following will be Martin Luther King Jr Day, making it a short trade week and then congress will start debating stimulus. The overall economic picture is still positive although valuations remain hilarious.
If you can't predict what happens in 3 months, try to see if you can predict tomorrow. If you can't predict tomorrow, take a day off; there's nothing that says you have to profit on every movement every time. Come back and make money when the markets are predictable again. Or take a month off (sorry, anything less and I've learned you retain some biases still) because it is always better to hold on to money than to lose money. Twice as hard to have $2 on wednesday if you go from $1 to 50 cents on tuesday. Breathe, there are all kinds of people in the market, coming and going without notice, many thoughts many ideas. You're playing against professionals. Like literally against every other professional out there. It's not supposed to be easy.
And finally, maybe one day inflation will catch up to us and the Fed will be forced to raise rates, but until then, another pullback beyond 20% is another 1 in a million black swan event, and even if that ends up happening, still probably better to play it as two sets of 10% than a straight bet that the market will nosedive. We are firmly in the era of low interest rates and the world hasn't crashed. America is still #1 and people everywhere are still going about their lives.
So I'm short this week, but probably still long overall.
This week on capitol hill, will be the Senate trial of President Trump. We just had a big move up from last week, it doesn't seem like the masses are coordinating anything and $GLD $TLT and $UUP have diverged from their recent movements. I don't know why the market was pushed up last minute Thursday, I know the market didn't really know what to do with it Friday, adding no new momentum. The week following will be Martin Luther King Jr Day, making it a short trade week and then congress will start debating stimulus. The overall economic picture is still positive although valuations remain hilarious.
If you can't predict what happens in 3 months, try to see if you can predict tomorrow. If you can't predict tomorrow, take a day off; there's nothing that says you have to profit on every movement every time. Come back and make money when the markets are predictable again. Or take a month off (sorry, anything less and I've learned you retain some biases still) because it is always better to hold on to money than to lose money. Twice as hard to have $2 on wednesday if you go from $1 to 50 cents on tuesday. Breathe, there are all kinds of people in the market, coming and going without notice, many thoughts many ideas. You're playing against professionals. Like literally against every other professional out there. It's not supposed to be easy.
And finally, maybe one day inflation will catch up to us and the Fed will be forced to raise rates, but until then, another pullback beyond 20% is another 1 in a million black swan event, and even if that ends up happening, still probably better to play it as two sets of 10% than a straight bet that the market will nosedive. We are firmly in the era of low interest rates and the world hasn't crashed. America is still #1 and people everywhere are still going about their lives.
I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.