$USD v. $TRY - #elliottwave & Predictive/Forecasting Analysis
Friends,
Predictive/Forecasting Model hit an unannounced target at the current price vicinity of 3.06557. I have constructed this DAILY chart to comprise three degrees of Elliott Waves: Cycle, Primary and Intermediate.
In these relative terms, the recent top would likely represent cycle III of a Period of an Intermediate (5). The relevance of this detailed nomenclature is relative to its internal parts, but also to the probable price action we are about to face.
The most important element here is that we are likely arrived at a significant resistance, topping a cycle-degree impulse, and now descending to a probable correction into a Cycle wave IV.
EQUALITY:
Keeping a quasi-equality among Wave II and Wave IV, we are expecting a possible 434 resolution of a correction/impulse completion, first as the aforementioned Cycle Wave IV, and a final push to higher highs as an impulsive Cycle Wave V.
ALTERNATION:
Consideration must be given to Elliott Wave's Rule Of Alternation, wherein Cycle Wave II corrected into a complex 5-3-5 zigzag (more specifically a declining Leading Diagonal, followed by a rising Triple Zigzag, then concludinghte entire correction into a declining Impulse - The overall motion is detailed as "LD-TZ-IMP" over a 434 daily bar span).
Conversely, the alternation in the current Cycle Wave IV correction should occur as a simpler IMP-ZZ-IMP, giving shape to the simpler ZZ prescribed in the chart as the larger PINK zig-zag.
TARGETS - ELLIOTT WAVE & FORECASTING/PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED:
- ELLIOTT WAVE SUPPORTIVE TARGET:
There are two targets in the chart. First, a supportive target defined by expectation of Elliott Wave's rule of correction seeking origination level of a preceding Wave-4 of one lesser degree, hence sought out at Intermediate Wave (4) = 2.62980.
Staying respectful of the aforementioned EQUALITY rule, the projected height of Cycle Wave II is thus used to approximate the termination level of Cycle Wave IV, such that the top of the range anchors at Cycle wave III = Primary = Intermediate (5).
This does NOT result in any Fibonacci cluster, as the Fibonacci matrix is anchored at Intermediate (2) to Intermediate (5), and fails to offer a cluster at the 0.618 level. This level was relevant at the bottom left of the chart, since it offered the launching base from Cycle II completion to the recent Cycle III completion.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL TARGET:
The Predictive/Forecasting Model here offers a final target, namely:
- TG-Hix = 3.26772 - 14 OCT 2015
This target is a qualitative designation (ie.: TG- Hi/Lo and TG-Hi.Hix), which is associated with reversals rather than retracements. This means that if and once price rallies from the approximate base just defined, we are likely to see significant rejection and a probable roll-over.
Note that the 0.618-Fib level that correlates the two Cycle Wave II and IV can be used as a measure of anticipation, perfectly lining up its infamous 1.414-Fib, which is the value I often seek in an aggressive counter-trend market where reversals tend to occur.
OVERALL:
Look for a probable simpler correction to the levels defined, and an impulsive Cycle Wave completion at the Predictive/Forecasting Model target of 3.26772.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
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Predictive/Forecasting Model hit an unannounced target at the current price vicinity of 3.06557. I have constructed this DAILY chart to comprise three degrees of Elliott Waves: Cycle, Primary and Intermediate.
In these relative terms, the recent top would likely represent cycle III of a Period of an Intermediate (5). The relevance of this detailed nomenclature is relative to its internal parts, but also to the probable price action we are about to face.
The most important element here is that we are likely arrived at a significant resistance, topping a cycle-degree impulse, and now descending to a probable correction into a Cycle wave IV.
EQUALITY:
Keeping a quasi-equality among Wave II and Wave IV, we are expecting a possible 434 resolution of a correction/impulse completion, first as the aforementioned Cycle Wave IV, and a final push to higher highs as an impulsive Cycle Wave V.
ALTERNATION:
Consideration must be given to Elliott Wave's Rule Of Alternation, wherein Cycle Wave II corrected into a complex 5-3-5 zigzag (more specifically a declining Leading Diagonal, followed by a rising Triple Zigzag, then concludinghte entire correction into a declining Impulse - The overall motion is detailed as "LD-TZ-IMP" over a 434 daily bar span).
Conversely, the alternation in the current Cycle Wave IV correction should occur as a simpler IMP-ZZ-IMP, giving shape to the simpler ZZ prescribed in the chart as the larger PINK zig-zag.
TARGETS - ELLIOTT WAVE & FORECASTING/PREDICTIVE MODEL BASED:
- ELLIOTT WAVE SUPPORTIVE TARGET:
There are two targets in the chart. First, a supportive target defined by expectation of Elliott Wave's rule of correction seeking origination level of a preceding Wave-4 of one lesser degree, hence sought out at Intermediate Wave (4) = 2.62980.
Staying respectful of the aforementioned EQUALITY rule, the projected height of Cycle Wave II is thus used to approximate the termination level of Cycle Wave IV, such that the top of the range anchors at Cycle wave III = Primary = Intermediate (5).
This does NOT result in any Fibonacci cluster, as the Fibonacci matrix is anchored at Intermediate (2) to Intermediate (5), and fails to offer a cluster at the 0.618 level. This level was relevant at the bottom left of the chart, since it offered the launching base from Cycle II completion to the recent Cycle III completion.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL TARGET:
The Predictive/Forecasting Model here offers a final target, namely:
- TG-Hix = 3.26772 - 14 OCT 2015
This target is a qualitative designation (ie.: TG- Hi/Lo and TG-Hi.Hix), which is associated with reversals rather than retracements. This means that if and once price rallies from the approximate base just defined, we are likely to see significant rejection and a probable roll-over.
Note that the 0.618-Fib level that correlates the two Cycle Wave II and IV can be used as a measure of anticipation, perfectly lining up its infamous 1.414-Fib, which is the value I often seek in an aggressive counter-trend market where reversals tend to occur.
OVERALL:
Look for a probable simpler correction to the levels defined, and an impulsive Cycle Wave completion at the Predictive/Forecasting Model target of 3.26772.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
LinkedIn: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.TradingView.com/u/4xforecaster
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Comment:
20 JUL 2016 - ADDENDUM:
Watch out for this potential interim - albeit limited - decline:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Watch out for this potential interim - albeit limited - decline:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment:
03 AUG 2016:
Watch for this possible pattern justifying last month's suspected - albeit limited - decline:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Watch for this possible pattern justifying last month's suspected - albeit limited - decline:
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment:
17 NOV 2016 - Chart Update: target HIT as defined on OCT 2015 (over a year a go):
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
- Check #CROWSignalService on Twitter for recent performances
David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
- Check #CROWSignalService on Twitter for recent performances
Comment:
ADDENDUM: Also from #CROWSignalService - All targets hit, as defined by more recent forecast (SEP 2016):
David Alcindor
David Alcindor
As the $TRY continues to weaken, it remains tethered at the structural tops it had carved over the past since this forecast was released.
At this point, TG-Hix remains a probable target. Also added is a WL at 3.58889. However, an interim decline to the levels initially forecast remains probable:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)