TheStockMan

TheStockMan

US10Y is looking like it is going to make its next leg up soon. It bounced off the MAs a couple weeks ago (which corresponded to the previous high in Oct 2022) and is moving up quick. Something about today's price action with equities and NVDA is giving me an inkling that US10Y will be moving up throughout the summer, targeting the 5% level again.

TheStockMan Updated 

We've seen a wild +25% rally since Oct 2023 in SPY. Honestly, I did not expect this move back in Oct, especially since we broke down below the MAs and they acted as resistance for 3 weeks. However, the market doesn't care about what we think it will do. I don't like calling tops, but nothing goes straight up. With the crypto market building up hype as well, I...

TheStockMan Updated 

Nothing looks bullish and everything looks bearish on the QQQ. Lower high, lower low, broken down parallel channel, under the 21W and 20W MA, RSI rolling over after visiting the red Bollinger band, and price entering low volume zone since the drop in 2022. Based on the volume since 2022, 318-325 seems like the most likely long-term support for QQQ. It...

TheStockMan

DXY has hit my price target of 105.4, as mentioned in my previous post. I now think it retraces back to the channel top. This corresponds to roughly 103. I expect it to drop down there late Sep to early Oct. Depending on economic conditions and market sentiment, we can either find support at 103 or fall back into the channel, most likely signaling a false...

TheStockMan Updated 

The ticker everyone is watching, NVDA. It may be too early to call it a double top, but given that QQQ has made highs above the drop on NVDA earnings day, I think NVDA is a little exhausted. $500 has been resistance for 4 trading days, and I think we will continue to move in this channel for a while. I do think that we will go down to test the bottom trendline...

TheStockMan Updated 

DXY looked shaky the past week because of the lead up to the NFP data. Now that it is out, and stronger than expected, DXY and US10Y have seen bounces at critical support levels. With DXY finding support around the 0.236 fib level and the 20W EMA, we can expect further moves up to test the 0.382 fib level around 105.4. Today's DXY move up was huge, and I think...

TheStockMan

As mentioned in my previous post about DXY, we were moving within a falling parallel channel. I expected it to break a little later, but we got our first weekly close above it last week. From here, DXY can hit 105.4, which was previous resistance and where the 0.382 fib level is. If DXY continues to show strength, we can expect the sell offs to continue in...

TheStockMan

Using a parallel channel, we can see DXY is facing resistance. With bonds continuing to increase and sell offs starting to happen among risk assets, I believe that DXY will break through this resistance. However, before that happens, I think we will see a relief rally in equity markets (we are already seeing the beginnings of it), meaning the DXY and most likely...

TheStockMan

So TSLA hit my previous short target of $223, and actually fell a little lower to $212. This is great because $212 is an even better place of support than 223, with previous lows in May-June 2022 and the previous highs from Feb-May 2023 now both acting as support. Another reason why this is a great place to profit off of the relief bounce is because of the...

TheStockMan Updated 

I am bullish on SHOP for 4 reasons: 1) We held the 1W MA and it has acted as support since Feb 28. It is curling up, meaning that the trend is now bullish. 2) We have formed a bullish pendant on the daily and weekly time frame. 3) We have recently touched the green Bollinger band on the RSI. 4) The 0.236 fib level at 59.91 recently acted as support. I am...

TheStockMan Updated 

After TSLA reached 300 last week, it seems like it is running out of steam. For the following reasons, it seems like shorting TSLA here might be a good trade: 1) It got rejected off the top descending trendline. 2) It got rejected off the 0.618 fib level last week. 3) It is about to close under the 0.5 fib level this week. 4) It hasn't retested the 1W MA nor...

TheStockMan

After earnings AAPL has seen a drop of around 10%. I don't think it is over because of the super obvious bear flag forming. Using a measured move, if we break down from this flag, the target is around $160-162, which also aligns with the 0.5 fib retrace level. I think we could get there by mid September. Given that markets are turning to risk-off (see DXY), I...

TheStockMan Updated 

As mentioned previously, the sell zone is validated if and when we break the 360 support level. We had a daily close below 360 yesterday. Today's price action may seem like a reversal, but a crucial point must be made: we have not made a higher high yet on the daily time frame. I see today as a reflexive bounce, not as a reversal. With 360 broken, we also have a...

TheStockMan Updated 

We are reaching critical resistance levels on QQQ thanks to the upside breakout of the rising wedge. We are nearing the Feb 2022 high of 371.83 and the 0.786 fib level of 376.07. Like always, we could continue rallying up, but at this point I think it is more probable for us to see a retracement. It is still too early to go short in my opinion, we would need to...

TheStockMan Updated 

I believe that NQ is getting a little too heated with the rally in the past couple of weeks. The trend is definitely more bullish with the 1M and 1W MA beginning to curl up and acting as support, but I think we have gone up too quickly and are due for a correction. This doesn't mean that we can't go higher, but I believe we will see it cool off next week. With...

TheStockMan

The bull flag and bullish setup mentioned in my previous post has been broken to the upside. Somewhere around 210 remains to be the TSLA short-term target, which could easily be hit next week. Once we get the 1M MA close, we can have a better idea of where the upside resistance lies, most likely where the 0.5 fib is, 212. This will cause a confluence of...

TheStockMan

The past year has been so clean for TSLA in terms of respecting the fib retracement levels. The 1M and 1W MAs have also been respected. Using the fib retracement levels starting from the bull run back in 2019 until the high in late 2021, we can easily find TSLA's support and resistance levels. I am currently bullish on TSLA for these reasons: - We are...

TheStockMan

Sometimes the most simple trades are the best ones. Look at how much TSLA has been respecting these Fibonacci levels. With the RSI undersold, a recent bounce at the 0.786 level, and changing sentiment across markets, this might be a good time to buy some TSLA. This isn't the most safe trade, since the 1M MA and 1W MA are acting as resistance. However, I think the...