5/21/24 - vrockstar - 1 bn fcf on 15 bn ev is MSD fcf yield, ok, 15x PE on msd rev grow and 10% eps growth, ok. 6x sales meh, like 5x more for this growth when comp to similar or better growth B2B/non cyber names. not outgrowing leaders is drawback in this industry. israel geo also tends to get disc. in this mkt stock seems fairly valued all else equal ~150$/shr....
5/21/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:TGT - tough setup, unclear if i'll participate on tmr's AM print. on one hand, the trends look incrementally better than NYSE:WMT which surprised (as the retailer has been absorbing even mid-higher end customers), multiple (adjusted for debt) is modestly above 20x PE which is reasonable for this type of scale (staple-ish) retailer,...
5/21/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:PLAB - like the setup here, first time reviewing the co. financial bogeys and any guide shoudn't be too negative. stock has beat SPY since covid lows which is impressive/ important for long plays (to me). 13x pe, high single digit FCF yield, MSD growth... all very reasonable. not the highest conviction play, so i'm going smaller into...
5/21/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:PDD - hard not to like the setup here into tmr AM's print, testing last year's mid-highs. google trends on the marginal gainer temu is crushing trends.google.com 17x fwd PE, high single digit FCF. pretty expensive for chinese co, but it's the fastest horse (which are the only stocks that one can buy in this tape w/ confidence) and...
5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:PANW - probably a beat and one you'd want to dip buy. seem to be doing well in the field from what i gather as well, and of course the insider congressfolks own it, which adds to the allure of owning it. as mentioned in a previous comment, this thing is not cheap - 50x PE and LSD fcf yields... but if they can deliver this is going to...
5/20/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:KEYS - not a short though i think my bias here is -ve all together. EPS that won't reach peak ('23) levels until a few years is a tough hurdle, especially at 20x. add to this 4% fcf yields which is fine, but not exceptional for this mediocre growth. at best this is an index tracker, and perhaps you have a more nuanced view on EPS -...
5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ZM - as much as thef fundamental "gut" tells me this is a layup into earnings, DD FCF yields, when adj. for net cash the PE is 8-9x. in theory if the sales *don't* decline this year - that's stupid cheap. also any talk of AI tools and ppl's willingness to use/pay for additional features should send this thing. on the converse, the...
5/17/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NICE - still wrapping my hands around the asset itself (so will re-engage in the coming weeks/ or next Q on a more nuanced view). however, the key question i'm asking are a few things 1) is it growing above *real* inflation which is probably DD, at least in the terminal? "yes" is the answer - 15% and confirmed by the recent print +...
in-line result and 2Q and FY guides are a touch below consensus. that's a no-touch in this environment. let's be clear - great (if not the best) IT transformation co that will benefit from a lot of the secular trends in the coming years. however, in order to sustain software-esque multiples >20x PE... you need to be beating/ raising and doing something that's not...
5/16/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:CPRT - love the company, really hard to buy the stock here. high 30s PE, >10x sales, 2% fcf yield. and that gets you 10% pa top line growth? the stock is a clear outperfomer v. the broader market since forever, so it's hard to fade/ short the name. shorting has been miserable in this tape anyway. add to the fact that in-line and...
5/16/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:DOCS - looks modestly interesting b/c the bar looks low-ish for a beat and it's a few days to cover. however, the prior Q's MSD+ revenue beat was sold down hard and without relief until today and the stock divided by SPY (the comp i benchmark everything by) is a bleed forever. it's not like valuation is a steal at 15% pa growth 7.5x...
5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NXT - industrial solar w/ unique IP/ solution and the best industry growth likely has the fewest overhangs as well as bagholders involved. while anyone can see rates picture limits investments industry-wide, these guys should continue to grow through the '24 trough (not the case for... any other solar i can find, esp the consumer...
5/15/25 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NICE - setup reminds me a bit of NYSE:DT into the close y day as well as other SaaS names. valuation remains reasonable for 15% growth, a little over 5x sales, low 20s PE, 3.5% fcf yield. seems to check the boxes there. i'd previously set a greedier target of lower $200's for entry, but this tape seems to want to basically buy all...
5/16/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:YOU - has become my largest single name (almost a 15% position for me, from 0% into EPS). i like it anywhere under $20. the math here is simple - at $17.5 today, you're basically buying $2.5 bn of market cap and get net cash of $500 of net cash (don't use the trading view numbers, they don't include marketable securities - i.e. "cash...
5/15/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:SHLS - well... here we go 6's. can enter now below the $6.5 level by selling 6/21 7.5C's for 30c if you desire. we start to hit below 30c lower from this entry... and i will begin buying size without selling C's. slippery one but 1) not the first bid in this tape b/c 2) trough EPS this yr w/o look thru 3) some silly lawsuits that are...
5/15/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:WMT - 24x fwd PE and barely 3.5% yield for this anemic grower into the most cashed strapped consumers. google trends look awful. trends.google.com i'd guess any pop gets faded v quickly. pricing power is for the brands, not the retailers. hard to sell a cost cutting/ brand squeeze story for a company that's already doing this to the...
5/14/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:DT - first time looking at this name. checks all my boxes. revenue >25% growth, sub 10x sales (under 40x PE), throws off substantial cash and yields 3-4% depending on how bullish/bearish you are which for a name growing at this rate is a good buy all else equal. stock seems to have gotten ahead of itself in the last print and looking...
5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:DLO - tough biz to underwrite, let's get that clear. accusations. new mgmt. in some weird regions (that's the biz fam). competition in some well-established players ayden MT? ... but into the print, i think this is one that's setting up for a miss and realistically the downside here is probably 15-20% and the upside is equal AND it's...