VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR Updated 

5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NXT - industrial solar w/ unique IP/ solution and the best industry growth likely has the fewest overhangs as well as bagholders involved. while anyone can see rates picture limits investments industry-wide, these guys should continue to grow through the '24 trough (not the case for... any other solar i can find, esp the consumer...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:DLO - tough biz to underwrite, let's get that clear. accusations. new mgmt. in some weird regions (that's the biz fam). competition in some well-established players ayden MT? ... but into the print, i think this is one that's setting up for a miss and realistically the downside here is probably 15-20% and the upside is equal AND it's...

VROCKSTAR

5/14/24 - vrockstar - COINEX:OREUSDT - among the 70+ equities posts i made, i do look at crypto as well and while this is MUCH more speculative, i'm flagging TSX:ORE as something that's worth looking into. 1) you don't have to necessarily buy it - you can mine it in your browser ore.supply 2) the proof of work concept is quite interesting IMO b/c a. this...

VROCKSTAR

5/14/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:DT - first time looking at this name. checks all my boxes. revenue >25% growth, sub 10x sales (under 40x PE), throws off substantial cash and yields 3-4% depending on how bullish/bearish you are which for a name growing at this rate is a good buy all else equal. stock seems to have gotten ahead of itself in the last print and looking...

VROCKSTAR

5/14/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:RUM - of the 3 options we always have, buy/sell/hold... buying is probably the worst option. almost kind of weird how the stock is worth $2.5 bn in this tape - $100 mm in revenue, 25x sales? gross profit mgn is actually getting worse? they're spending more in opex? $200 mm in the bank and they minimally burn $100 mm this year? look -...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:RPD - taking a closer look today on the move and this is a sickly looking move. while we might get a bid from current owners, what i struggle w/ here is the 7% revenue growth which seems "okay" and the mid 3's sales multiple on fwd ests. is also "reasonable" as well as the high teens PE ratio (assuming >2$ EPS this yr). but the issue...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:BABA - on almost every metric this thing remains cheap. you and i both know this. that seems to be beside the issue and it's more a function of the $AMEX:KWEB-style flows here more than anything. realistically, there's a lot of optionality in the model too that can be communicated that skews more +ve than -ve. they have a bunch of...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:BZFD - burning a post to caution here if you own this dog. i'd dump it and move on. the fact that you'ore looking at a double+ from the lows is a blessing. do a favor and look at google trends... trends.google.com the trends are down and to the right. they are burning cash. web 2.0 clickbait in a world of ai-generated content...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:CCLD - looked at this last quarter (before i started doing daily write ups) and came to the conclusion of a. would possibly be a buy but b. valuation not obvious. this was in the low $1's. NOW, they missed that quarter. earnings setup looks lightish - b/c if they beat you better believe this runner goes to $3-4 tmr. BUT the higher...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ONON has always been a pretty expensive stock that i've watched but not owned (have only owned NASDAQ:CROX but also no longer any footwear). that being said, the setup in the quarter does look like a low bar. a. google trends impressive b. seasonal trends c. QoQ and d. stock back to where it "missed" last q. objectively there's no...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - hard to own NASDAQ:HYZN , period. i love the idea, think the tech could be deployed so many places, but with >$100 mm in the bank and burning >$100 mm a year, the risk reward isn't justified until they put up a good print and really speak to what the F they're spending >$100 mm on SG&A for. I get the $40 mm R&D budget, but also one could...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - i'm staying away from this even though the volatility is guaranteed. take a look at the 5/17 chain for $16P open interest. on one hand - i believe the large P vs. C skew is correct in the terminal NASDAQ:STNE isn't a great LT own (prefer NASDAQ:DLO or NASDAQ:MELI , even NYSE:NU ) but it's still a marginal gainer vs. NYSE:PAGS (which...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - incredibly lump results, and surprising stock remains bid even after the last two whiffs (big whiffs too). cool tech. would like to see this win, but burning 10 mm a year w/ 20 mm in the bank, some complications in the stack and overall worth north of $150 mm... is a tough one for me when i can buy profitable software w/ better mgns, growing...

VROCKSTAR

5/13/24 - vrockstar - simply too much debt in the capital stack to be interested on the long side, despite the potential for a beat/ squeeze on the almost 9 days to cover. co cutting opex and growing GP is in theory a +ve ... but seems like a bandage to a more serious growth problem if the most they can eek out is 10% - which is not enough to beat competition at...

VROCKSTAR

do yourself a favor and look into this incoming CME from the sun. youtu.be/9QCA3jouCKk - it's a short video WATCH IT NOW 6 or 7 earth bound flares that each have the capacity to f things up massively. the reason this matters is it's a DOWN ONLY situation. the market doesn't know about this (clearly) so any non-event doesn't move the market "back up". many...

VROCKSTAR

do yourself a favor and look into this incoming CME from the sun. youtu.be - it's a short video WATCH IT NOW 6 or 7 earth bound flares that each have the capacity to f things up massively. the reason this matters is it's a DOWN ONLY situation. the market doesn't know about this (clearly) so any non-event doesn't move the market "back up". many sources i look...

VROCKSTAR

5/10/24 - vrockstar - took an hour to deeper dive this y'day (as i was forced to having gotten an average entry of ~$24/shr last night). the conclusion here is - you might see a retrace (which is what i was playing), but the story is defn a whole lot more complicated than meets the eye. perhaps on a valuation front, which is what i do, the FCF is practically all...

VROCKSTAR

5/9/24 - vrockstar - love the company and hate the valuation here. massive gap at $20. need to adjust EPS for the debt (which is a toxic factor right now!) and you're in the high 20s (at the least) and closer to low 30s on my ests of how the market is thinking about b2b eps resets. 6x sales is too much for 10% sales growth too. not my rules. if you own it, i don't...