5/13/24 - $baba - small buyer into tmr's AM print
5/13/24 - vrockstar -
BABA
- on almost every metric this thing remains cheap. you and i both know this. that seems to be beside the issue and it's more a function of the $AMEX:KWEB-style flows here more than anything. realistically, there's a lot of optionality in the model too that can be communicated that skews more +ve than -ve. they have a bunch of businesses that can be spun/ or valued separately. i equally believe anyone that's recently been accumulating
BABA
is (*not) going to monetize the whole stake on a beat and probably adds to it in a "miss" (whatever that even means at this pt given the valuation and low expectations). therefore the bias remains to the upside here in the print and i'd look to enter here sub $80 on a miss - but realistically i might take a small punt to the upside and look to capture the continued move higher should the nasdaq remain bid thru the close.
eyeballing the potential up/downside moves here of +10 vs. -10 they look quite balanced. and again i think the balance of chart strength + low expectations probably keep this thing skewing the expected value up... vs. down into print.
BABA
- on almost every metric this thing remains cheap. you and i both know this. that seems to be beside the issue and it's more a function of the $AMEX:KWEB-style flows here more than anything. realistically, there's a lot of optionality in the model too that can be communicated that skews more +ve than -ve. they have a bunch of businesses that can be spun/ or valued separately. i equally believe anyone that's recently been accumulating
BABA
is (*not) going to monetize the whole stake on a beat and probably adds to it in a "miss" (whatever that even means at this pt given the valuation and low expectations). therefore the bias remains to the upside here in the print and i'd look to enter here sub $80 on a miss - but realistically i might take a small punt to the upside and look to capture the continued move higher should the nasdaq remain bid thru the close. eyeballing the potential up/downside moves here of +10 vs. -10 they look quite balanced. and again i think the balance of chart strength + low expectations probably keep this thing skewing the expected value up... vs. down into print.