mintdotfinance

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When central banks raise rates, financial sector outperforms. That is until credit crumbles by which time all bets are off. As federal funds rates spike and stay elevated for longer, lending rates will climb higher relative to deposit rates. Net Interest Margin ("NIM") which is the difference between lending and borrowing rates continues to favour financial...

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Investment wisdom states that “the only bad time to buy real estate is later.” Every rule though, has its exceptions. Current US real estate is clearly in exception territory given recessionary fears, high mortgage rates, and dim fundamentals. Real estate sector is the largest store of wealth. It is also the source of significant job creation. Crisis in this...

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There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. Fortunately, not always. Statistics enables investors and traders in financial and commodity markets. In statistics, mean is also known as the average. It is a number that represents the entire data set. Mean is the sum of the data set divided by number of data points in it. For example, in a group...

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China re-opening, widening trade surplus, and a fragile USD to keep Australian Dollar bouncing higher ("AUD") in 2023. The Dollar Index (“DXY”) is sinking through support levels even as the AUD rises past key resistance points. Amid solid tailwinds favoring AUD and formidable headwinds facing the USD, this case study argues for a long position in CME Micro...

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Swift dismantling of zero-Covid policy in China has triggered a surge in demand resulting in robust economic recovery. Is this a flash in the pan or a structural shift? Bouncing off from 2022 bottom in early November, Chinese equities (represented by FTSE China 50 Index, "China50 Index") rallied 64% on COVID easing. The rally has stalled based on specific sector...

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With the Launch of NFTs on the Bitcoin chain by Ordinals last month, the community is divided on what this means for Bitcoin as a chain and its future. NFT's have been a mainstay on several blockchains for years now, but until now their prevalence on the Bitcoin chain was understated. With the launch of the project Ordinal Protocol, that's changing. What is...

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Newton is known to have said that "The motion of heavenly bodies can be computed, but not the madness of people". That aptly fits the times we live in. Bitcoin (“BTC”) prices have rallied 40% since the start of the year despite bleak economic outlook. A short squeeze in the flagship crypto asset where $850M in short positions was liquidated in just three days is...

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When China sneezes, commodities catch cold. Developments in China over the last quarter around zero COVID have paved the path to re-opening, which has a substantial impact on lives, livelihoods, and commodity prices. China re-opening plus a raft of measures to spur the Chinese real estate sector sets the backdrop for copper prices to be bullish. This case study...

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Long Japan; Short US. Market conditions exist for Nikkei-225 index (“Nikkei”) to remain resilient over the next quarter relative to S&P 500 (“S&P”). BoJ's unflinching commitment to negative rates benefits Japanese firms with a weak Yen. Meanwhile, worsening economic conditions in the US with feeble growth outlook and likely recession could send S&P lower....

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In this week’s case study, we analyse a long position on Micro WTI Crude Futures (February) with a potential target of $82.30/barrel and a stop loss at $67/barrel, yielding a reward to risk ratio of 1.15. Last week, we delivered a case study with a short position on WTI Crude Oil futures with entry at $77.80/barrel and exit at $73.65/barrel. This worked as...

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Famous American Author Alfred Paul Ries once said, “Good things happen when you narrow your focus”. Global macro conditions and monetary environment could make that quote apt for US equity market investing too. Given the backdrop of price behavior, this case study argues that a spread trade comprising of Long Dow Jones Index and short S&P 500 index provides a...

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The red metal is widely regarded as a barometer of global economic health. Despite thin investments in production in recent years, copper prices have been bullish since June this year. Anticipation of China re-opening from Covid linked restrictions and less than expected inflation prints in the US have fueled a near 15% rally in copper prices over the last two...

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Crypto winter is here. Is this the darkest before dawn? Or the start of a long artic winter ahead? In such nebulous times, directional bets are rife with risks. In contrast, spread trades vastly lowers risk while enabling limited but durable returns. Set against the current macro backdrop and landscape shift in the industry, this case study will argue that...

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Fundamentals combined with its track record during recessions; Gold is set to outperform S&P 500 in 2023. S&P 500 faces uncertainty in the new year given higher rates for longer hurting both equities and bonds, nudging investors to alternative stores of value. Against that backdrop, this case study argues for a spread position of long Gold and short S&P 500 with...

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BACKGROUND Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in decline for the past year with price crashing as much as 20% on a single day in June. Still, the low set of $17,750 on 18 June (Saturday & hence unseen on CME chart) has turned out to be a resilient support level. BITCOIN PRICES RESILIENT RELATIVE TO S&P500 (SPX) and NASDAQ-100 (NDX) NDX and SPX with which BTC is...

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Silver commands value both as a precious metal and an industrial metal. Silver is often considered as a poor man's gold. According to the Silver Institute, Silver is used in solar cells (also known as photovoltaic cells which convert sunlight into electricity), electrical switches, and chemical-producing catalysts. Its unique properties make it nearly impossible...

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SUMMARY Lowered demand projections for Crude Oil as per IEA and OPEC+, softer demand for Crude Oil in China despite partial loosening of restrictions as per EY, the G7-Russian Crude price cap which would lower demand for WTI Crude. We are short-term bearish on WTI Crude Oil. However, it should be noted that there may be very limited downside in price as the...