"Japan faces a tug-of-war with yen bears" says the recent Reuters article on this topic, which has had a lot of articles in the recent buildup to the BOJ intervention. What it basically implies is that professional traders have embarked in a money making roller coaster pushing the USDJPY higher knowing full well that the BOJ will step in and bring it down triggering their sells. Because of the interest rates difference some are still expecting a lot of market participants to be on the other side of the BOJ position, especially as it is estimated by some that 59 billion $ were required just for this intervention alone.
I am not convinced. I don't see a big case for another Bull Big Push, and I developed a set of levels for potential support and resistance zones in a more bearish tuned scenario. At least until June. This also has a correction from the drop scenario factored in, with a potential resistance zone near 157.5 at the long green plank.
Nothing is set in stone and I wouldn't promote hear a precise approach, strategy, bias, or tactical manoeuvre, but I would pay close attention to the price action at the zones highlighted in this project. Consolidations, breakouts, reversals, all scenarios are to be considered, and to keep an open mind and be free of prejudice and bias, we can also consider more BOJ contrarian scenarios, as long as relevant price action related events occur at any of the shapes.
I am not convinced. I don't see a big case for another Bull Big Push, and I developed a set of levels for potential support and resistance zones in a more bearish tuned scenario. At least until June. This also has a correction from the drop scenario factored in, with a potential resistance zone near 157.5 at the long green plank.
Nothing is set in stone and I wouldn't promote hear a precise approach, strategy, bias, or tactical manoeuvre, but I would pay close attention to the price action at the zones highlighted in this project. Consolidations, breakouts, reversals, all scenarios are to be considered, and to keep an open mind and be free of prejudice and bias, we can also consider more BOJ contrarian scenarios, as long as relevant price action related events occur at any of the shapes.
Comment:
First sign of support at the blue which is a good indicator of potential things to come in this project. Hopefully this is not a black swan event and we will get to see more of this. Regarding this specific setup, it comes after a steep fall and while this doesn't invalidate the prospect of a higher momentum push above, for more cautious bulls a corrective and a second entry setup for a long could be more ideal. On the other way around bears in case they are out there hunting are just waiting for the weakness to appear after a climb, or after a corrective formation, ready to pounce and consolidate the yen even further. That being said, I don't know if we will get to see the green touched, but a second tap with a rebound on the blue would be interesting.
Comment:
Seems like the bulls are in charge for now even though the BOJ has issued another warning. Not convinced that they will intervene again even if it reaches the green zone but looking forward to see where this buying appetite weakens.
Comment:
Never got to touch the green before the bears got it it. Wars seems to continue in this market with the bulls pushing it toward the first small orange with some weakness in this area. The scenario where the bears won't be able to win over and push towards the red should be considered. Second orange zone could rebound this.