LighthouseCap23

LighthouseCap23

Pure Value & Low Vol relative to Pure Growth & High Beta. The rotation away from duration and beta has been very strong the past 2 months. As QT begins and liquidity dries up even more, I’d continue to favor shorter duration & lower beta segments of the market.

LighthouseCap23

Value is currently oversold within a Long-Term uptrend relative to Growth. Would not be surprised to see the recent weakness from Value/strength from Growth abate here.

LighthouseCap23

Lumber continues to surge, hitting a new recored 6m ROC. It is also right around the 1.618 extension of the all-time low to the '93 high (the only other period with a price spike of similar magnitude).

LighthouseCap23 Updated 

$LUMBER - Pushing back towards all time highs, however the 12Month ROC is still extremely elevated, in the 99th percentile of all time, likely a bit extended and the supply/demand dynamics should start stabilizing as (knock on wood) these second wave of lockdowns ease up

LighthouseCap23

Here's a monthly chart of $IWD /$IWF (black line, rhs) and the US 10yr yield (orange, lhs) going back 15 years or so. The bottom panel here is the rolling 36month (aka 3yr) correlation between these two. As you can see, the rolling correlation currently sits at 0.88. While not quite as high as a few months ago, it seems clear that yields are still very much...

LighthouseCap23

Now it's flagging after running up post-C&Hs. Looks like it wants to breakout to the upside.

LighthouseCap23

Retesting decade long downtrend line as well as 200d MA after initially breaking out and being rejected at the 38.2% retracement.

LighthouseCap23

Value showing meaningful outperformance for the first time in a decade. Might see a pause here as ratio bounces off of key support zone.

LighthouseCap23

This is one of my favorite comparison chart and is a clean, simple way to show the intermarket relationships and how important the yield environment is for certain other markets.

LighthouseCap23

Nintendo with a nice little retest after it's long term breakout.. Video Game stocks leaders heading into their busiest time of the year.

LighthouseCap23

BTCUSD - Big base, great LT Trends, and a whole lot of momentum... I certainly would not want to be short bitcoin right now.