decklyndubs

decklyndubs Updated 

Not financial advise, and anything could happen, but there is historically an 80% probability that this breaks down. The US Government and the Federal reserve have made some grave errors. Same mistakes over and over. This one looks real to me. Not a correction. Not a dip to buy. It's a maelstorm from hell. In real dollar terms, we touched 2021 highs here and...

decklyndubs Updated 

Nice surprise today! I shorted at bell ring but not holding it. Closed after hours. For the swingers, you're dead already. For the noobs, you're wrong. For the intraday warriors, it doesn't matter, you'll make money no matter what. Competitive markets (BIG MARKETS) hunt liquidity. Breakouts from ascending channels retest. That means your ludicrous stop loss and...

decklyndubs Updated 

This is a potential setup for a short late day. Dollar is dropping relative to yen and chf, voldq is good and strong at ~2.8 towards close. If the next hour can get us a good run up, then you might find a short off of DR high 18700 into the bell. It would be a surprise, i would want to see it really run hot into the last hour. PCE tomorrow, expecting some risk...

decklyndubs

The yen is usually pretty stable, but it’s been sliding more. Last time it got to this level, the Bank of Japan had to step in and burn 30bn in USD to buy the yen back up. The news said roughly that they don’t look at the price, but the velocity, so I have alerts on rapid moves on the yen to be able to show up and get on the BoJ’s side of the trade. Last time I...

decklyndubs

have sight of a parallel descending channel on nasdaq. Buckle up! Additions on the top of the channel. Profit taking on the break from channel up. I hypothesize it runs like this for days, but have to keep watchin'

decklyndubs

Do you think "markets only go up?" Did you know that, accounting for inflation, the nasdaq has not exceeded 2021 levels? Even with nvda and the AI rally, we're only really at 2021 levels (!!) in real dollar terms. Here is the nasdaq price divided by US CPI. This is a potential "double top." If the fed don't move the rates down to 0% immediately, I suspect we'll...

decklyndubs Updated 

Lines up with my other post on DJI. Fundamentals line up with chart. Fibs happen to work as well - I don't usually use them. Economic data reversing the bullish rate cut bets. I believe this is the second peak.

decklyndubs Updated 

I don't use Fibs but was curious if the lines I had drawn will show up and they do nearly perfectly. I don't use fibs, I use my eyes, and well, maybe I'll look at fibs more as they detected/predicted the same levels. I shorted DJI under 40k thursday pre-market and held the short to 39k Looking at DJI as it has no NVDA in it. Here is your double top. Cool CPI...

decklyndubs

Market seems to be betting on the rate cuts and soft landing again. The narratives are floating around the unemployment numbers as a possible cause for rate cuts, or else rate cuts because why not? Jpow today seemed to hint at hotter inflation, PPI came in super hot today forecasting inflation, but Jpow has been a little less hawkish than his constituents in the...

decklyndubs

BTC looks poised to test 66, possibly to break it and get to 68. Catalyst is the FOMC words "employment data will give us a reason to cut" then jobs data comes in weak. Rally ensues. Last night down trend was broken, I'm playing a consolidation, looking for the vwap this weekend as a swing which I'll try to scalp inside of. Invalidated under 62kish if the trend...

decklyndubs

I thought we'd see the top. I couldn't see any way to print more money. No knobs or dials left. Until I saw multiple reports of Trump planning to oust Jpow, and nullify the separation between the US Federal Reserve and the US Government. That would mean that an elected Trump would control the interest rates. He wanted negative interest rates when he was in, and he...

decklyndubs

Crypto corporations are telling you this is a buy the news event, that's now what I'm playing. Expecting price agreement around 63800 and then a move, very probably to the downside

decklyndubs

Called not lightly, gold and dollar are rising into PCE. Long weekend. I believe for the second time 5260is is ES top locally. I called it after FOMC as well, I share this with a lot of analysis behind it, but I could be disproven by 0dte distortions or general hysteria. I would be very surprised to be disproven here, but we cannot predict. Seeing symptoms of...

decklyndubs

Bullflag was validated out of NYSE close monday into europe with a break from the descending channel after 6 or 7 taps. An uptrend has been forming into NYSE open. There are a few events later in the week that I expect may rattle the market: Consumer confidence today was on expectation GDP/Unemployment - probably has little effect now even if off...

decklyndubs

Overpriced here at 3 cuts. I believe this will fail and am shorting in the channel until proven wrong.

decklyndubs

Total all markets moved on manufacturing and sales data. Bonds, USD, Crypto all getting pummeled. I would expect _at least_ further selling, if not a trend change in the markets. Everyone is greedy, only up forever. I don't want to see anyone get hurt but I have also been laughed at and told I'm wrong a bunch by Pavlov's dog drooling at the sight of any dip....

decklyndubs Updated 

Powell testified today and I think what he said will devalue the dollar and boost everything else - the pushback on Basel III and the willingness to re-evaluate are signalling that banks won't be tightened down too much. To me, that's possibly an inflationary signal as they can create more money.

decklyndubs

I'm not much of one for predicting, but my read is that BTC will consolidate through europe, and break around NYSE open 8:30am ET-9:30am ET, either blasting towards 66k (price discovery) or testing down towards 60k (vwap) or 61.2k (regression).