fringe_chartist

fringe_chartist

It's important to have some expectations. Not much has changed since I last posted, at least not in terms of going risk-on. If anything the fundamentals are even more bearish, technicals are reflective of that, and thirdly mechanicals such as derivatives are not looking hot. In order to even consider anything risk-on, the price action will have to severely...

fringe_chartist

I'm a big fan of exotic charts. It is often tough to gauge the current markets by looking at individual charts so sometimes I like to combine them together. Here is a rough rationale of this chart: TOTAL Crypto Total seems to have a good representation small cap behavior and is often a leading indicator of the broader risk-on market. S&P Large caps,...

fringe_chartist Updated 

The fundamental cheapness of gold is a fairly sideways chart. We are approaching a similar cheapness as was seen in 1999 to 2003 where we saw a ~700% rally until 2012. When we established a top in the channel in 2012, the market bottomed. It appears currently that it's not done selling off and has some room to run down, or is about to establish a sideways bottom...

fringe_chartist

Some like running. Others like direction. Some just want to feel the breeze again. You will long for the past and try to repeat what you did to succeed, only to realize that nothing lasts forever. I don't think this pattern of lower lows in percentages of bullish stocks, and higher lows in bitcoin price, will last forever. If money printing stops and lending...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Ignore all the other charts right now. They are based on DOLLARS. The dollar is permanently unstable and your imperialist overlords are here to take away your spending power. We're due to see bearish action similar to April 5th (pink dot). The question is, will we see a lower high in relative yields, or will we set a higher low and possibly become uninverted, and...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Praise Tux the Penguin! The last time the price formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern (white line in chart), we bounced off of the 50 week MA (curved white line in chart) and formed the final shoulder (Tux penguins). Maybe it could happen with the 200 week MA (blue line)? This would allow us to retest the 50 week MA as resistance, as it has not been tested...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Let's look at the DXY vs S&P, which illustrates some of the recent market moves pretty well. Lately, the DXY and S&P have been inversely correlated. In other words, when the DXY moves up the S&P moves down, and vice versa, when the DXY moves down the S&P moves up. The 100 day trend of inverse correlation is starting to wane and both price trends have decayed from...

fringe_chartist Updated 

This is an updated version of my previous "Evergrande + others" chart of Chinese real estate. Instead of including some smaller companies with longer price history, this focuses on large market cap companies. I weighted the prices against each other equally by their 42 day average, and then weighted that by the market cap: 1. Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) HKD...

fringe_chartist

Just a quick update of the last chart I posted, which had a bug. These stocks: '0123' '0083' refer to Malaysian stocks, but these stocks: '123' '83' are the symbols we want. Here is the updated index for your usage: '16'/0.3506+'688'/0.08518+'1109'/0.1433+'2202'/0.07858+'1113'/0.2549+'960'/0.211+'83'/0.1272+'2007'/0.07058+'3900'/0.3293+'123'/0.3196 See here...

fringe_chartist Updated 

DXY is technically overbought and the market seems to agree. We had a several fair chances to break out above 108 in the past week, but it did not come to fruition. Technical dollar bearish headwinds SEEM to outweigh fundamental bullish dollar tailwinds for the moment. Lately, every time the 0.5 month (100 x 4 hours = 16 days) log-returns is positive and reaches...

fringe_chartist

The Nasdaq is worth about 10x of what it was in 1990, in real terms, if you take away all the money printing. The support structure from the 1990s that decayed in 2008 has now been resistance for a *decade*, and now that we're at a historical zone of sky high valuations and overboughtness, it wouldn't surprise me if it dropped 75% from here. What if there is more...

fringe_chartist Updated 

Just FYI, an equally price-weighted basket of large Chinese real estate companies is down 8% today. Rumor is going around lots of companies in this sector are not paying interest payments and are on the verge of default. Maybe it could spill over into global markets? Dare I say it could be an outbreak in the market flu? These companies are much larger than Enron....

fringe_chartist

Semi-monthly returns are the highest since March 31. Upward momentum has been strong, but it's looking like it could fade and the price could possibly retest 4000 where either support or resistance will be established. Sentiment is so mixed at the moment that I am fairly certain this will play out. Just look around at the severe contrast in sentiment. People are...

fringe_chartist

Yields are going crazy right now. Everything seems like a disaster. Oddly enough, when these particular yields invert (gray boxes), the 10/2, it is historically not the best time to go short, but rather you would have benefited if you had shorted AFTER yields uninverted above 1.0(red dots). Now, okay, maybe this time is different, a ratio of 0.87 isn't exactly...

fringe_chartist

When things get confusing I like to pull out the Random Walk Index strategy. It measures logarithmic returns but in a different way: it runs a randomness test on a period of prices. There is a red line, the downtrend strength indicator, and the green line, the uptrend strength indicator. When either trend crosses above 1.0, the probability that the trend is...

fringe_chartist

If you would, you would be selling BTC and buying XMR! It's an inverted chart. It looks a bit like most assets markets did 6 months ago, and I thought flipping the chart would make it easier to see. Maybe we have a fundamental reason to care about private transactions during these weird times? Or perhaps just a timing coincidence. The fork is also August...

fringe_chartist Updated 

If we duplicate the rest of the current corrective cycle through the bars pattern with similar geometry, it breaks out of the 5 year resistance! Not saying it will happen but it is intriguing. Similar ideas have worked. Additionally, it looks like we could still face 20% downside against BTC before the potential resistance break. What do you think? Will the XMR 5...

fringe_chartist Updated 

There's so much going on right now, but I think this chart sums it up for assets in general. This is a fairly simple idea I fantasized a while ago and it played out to my surprise. Every once and a while, the percentage of bullish stocks doubles, and then a selloff happens. Unless we can break this symmetry and make a clear break above 25, we should not expect...