sebastian.soik

sebastian.soik

THE BITCOIN HALVENING CYCLE - MACRO TREND ANALYSIS by Sebastian Soik CONTENTS: 0 Introduction 1 Market Data 2 Technical Analysis 2.1 Disclaimer and Dimensioning of the underlying price function 2.2 Approximation of unknown halving trend line 2.3 Graphical verification with fibonacci 2.4 Approximation of unknown trend channel height 2.5 Finding Timing...

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sebastian.soik

For almost 3 months we can see a significant drop in Bitcoin that are sold by miners. So miners decided to keep their mining rewards on a large scale. Just before the halving the hash rate skyrocketed because of mining farms, that pushed on their rates. Since the halving we can now see a continuous drop of the hash rate of the Bitcoin network. After the halving...

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I applied a Fib fan to the ETHUSD chart. As you can see below the .382 and the .5 fib lines have been hit by the local highs which have been formed after the top on Feb 15th. The .5 line acted as resistance at 225 USD and is now the highest trendline in the given time frame. ETHUSD is overbought on the daily, which is also a good sign for a correction to be...

sebastian.soik Updated 

BTC dropped sharply as expected. A weekly low of 7600 USD has been set. The bounce found resistance below the 8200 USD level, pulled back an confirmed its short-term support at 7750 USD. A move above the 8200 USD could trigger a short term bullish continuation to the 9000 USD and 9200 USD levels. Regarding Bitcoins bottom behavior, it is fairly commom that a...

sebastian.soik Updated 

There was much bullish movement on the market today. The price hit the resistance at 8897 USD and is currently correcting. Everything above 8398 USD would then be a higher low, which would break the series of lower highs and lower lows that has been established since Feb 26. A move above resistance level could trigger a bullish continuation to the top of the...

sebastian.soik Updated 

BTC showed a 4% candle to the downside. It found intermediate support at 8843 USD with a tiny pullback only to the .236 fib line. After it got heavily rejected at 8200 USD It stayed well below the 9000 USD level, which gives us a solid selling signal in the short term. By looking at the weekly (see below), this formation looks like a solid weekly high has been...

sebastian.soik

The price went down to a low of 216 USD today. As expected the bearish momentum increased after crossing the 235 benchmark. Daily RSI is now below 50, which supports the bearish market behavior. We have now some interesting lines directly below: - A parallel of the long term downward trend channel acted as support today at 215 USD (bigger picture in screenshot...

sebastian.soik Updated 

First of all some words to the crash 2 days ago. There have been many signs for this pullback. Bitcoin had shown signs of weakness, Ethereum gave us a double top formation, and the overall market was overbought. All of this combined lead me into selling a large position at the top, expecting a pullback. I think another 7% drop to the 9k area is definitely in the...

sebastian.soik

BTCUSD looks like it wants to go parabolic in a bullish continuation pattern. But I don't believe in this.. Look at the volume. On Jan 20 we had this bullish spike followed by a nice move up, combined with a high volume on the 4H. Then there was a profit taking pattern followed by a consolidation until Jan 25. On Jan 25 the price went up again, basically the same...

sebastian.soik Updated 

As shown in the chart above there might be a H&S Pattern currently forming. This pattern 'can' be reliable in the crypto space, just because many people recognize it. I marked the the price range where you shouldn't open any trades as the "dumb zone". A lack of buyers in this area could eventually send the prices further down. The current volume on the whole...

sebastian.soik

Well yeah, we have a price spike coming with the 0.10.0 version. There might be some momentum left. But it actually doesn't matter because of the fact that you can get technical interest on this asset class when the whole process is finally done. As a European I can tell you 0% interest rate for almost 10 years is just horrible when you try to keep your cash...

sebastian.soik

Trendline was supported 2 times so far. RSI builds up. The chance to trade this long isn't dead yet

sebastian.soik Updated 

ETH looks interesting on the weekly. Since BTC keeps on going the lower trendline is close. An double top pattern in Bitcoin price followed by a consolidation could trigger a fund movement from BTC to Alts.

sebastian.soik

As provided in my last idea BTC looks heavily overbought on all timeframes. As shown in chart technicals don't suggest another break-up. Local limit should be close. I am very longterm on BTC and want to change my portfolio at the moment, so i wont go leveraged short. But short term shorts should have a pretty good risk/reward for all short term plans. I would...

sebastian.soik

BTC looks pretty bullish at the moment. The actual run might extend to maybe almost 10k (fib 1). However, BTC is overbought on high timeframes and a steep correction is always in the cards. By drawing some longterm trendlines (green os the overall bullish base trend, red is the bearish trend since feb18), tragets might be at fib .681 and .5 to stay clearly...

sebastian.soik

I don't really trade crypto for a while now just because of it's very hard to tell if it will go up or down in the short term. Since I bought my crypto many years ago I don't really care. But it is still interesting to see what this market does. I am reading many ideas on the TradingView platform. People think to know whats going to happen and their ideas are...

sebastian.soik

I don't really trade crypto for a while now just because of it's very hard to tell if it will go up or down in the short term. Since I bought my crypto many years ago I don't really care. But it is still interesting to see what this market does. I am reading many ideas on the TradingView platform. People think to know whats going to happen and their ideas are more...