sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

Not much to glean from the market that moves little, convey nothing after the V shape. Left to interpret, the psychological 50K mark is the only line in the sand. Bigger Frames 49300-50300 is what it rules. Holiday on Monday, Banking as a pack underperforming either locally or globally despite the fall in US yields and lower inflation expectations is a cause...

sreebhashyam

After the V shape, then comes four days of just 75 points move, the first two days 200 points move, and the recent two days 150 points move. In total 300 points up move. The selected frame posts the bearish meeting candle a perfect one. That does not end there. The stochastics indicator is showing the overbought conditions, (may stretch in terms of little extra...

sreebhashyam

In the world of statistics, the base effect plays a larger role, hence any data that comes quite extradinary, these effects are factored into. When the Press asked the J Powell about yesterday's data and if FED members considered that and if yes what his opinion about. 1. The data was discussed, members have been given how to factor that, some of them factored,...

sreebhashyam

It looked like long back the moves from 23300-21300-23300, such a volatility represents the aggregate demand and supply bunched up. No wonder the follow up actions lack similar vigour if not similar steps. Look at the US 10 Y yield up 40 basis down 30 basis up again 30 basis and yesterday down 14 basis, not a small movement. US CPI falls on all its fronts, in...

sreebhashyam

As the markets await FED meeting (not that they expect anything), the series of rate cuts that we witnessed last week, ranging from CAD, Danish and Europe, the FED projections and the press conference assumes importance. In addition, the AI world with Apple joining the race, the comments of IMF Chief Economist, about AI ruling the productivity and thus the...

sreebhashyam

Incremental moves once again impacted by the cues elsewhere than just simply what happens locally. In a sort, market slowly absorbing the election process and coming to terms. Today CPI of importance, FOMC, presser is more important than the action. From six rate cuts, markets now more or less convinced no rate cut before the September. Projections from FED...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank, has not recaptured the old glory, despite the NIFTY crawling back. Still near the 50 K mark, though near 1500 points away. Lots of expectations in change of FM and markets will have to remain focused on no change. It is not an individual it is the team that works. Will Guidelines change matters more than change of Guard. No doubt there is sense...

sreebhashyam

Held the base quite some time, the rotation held, all green. Fight around the old guard, lots of spaces gave up. The new rotational space gave back its gains, that is IT. In a world of inflation fighting, the growth, the cost and the innovation, IT space there are gems and there are some who will slump. No one brush to choose here too. Banks hold does not...

sreebhashyam

MPC meeting goes with pause. Statements about last mile to reach 4% remains tough, is clear indications no rush to cut. Despite the cuts in West, one has to keep in mind, the rise in West is not commensurate with the rise here and hence cuts won't follow. The cues will be more towards the East, that remains a stable policy than cuts or hikes for the time...

sreebhashyam

A week that both bulls and bears would try to ignore but cannot. The news of Retail buying near 21000 C far outweighing the story remains a thing to note. Lots of GTT orders have been hit in that fall, not sure how many were intended if they had time to revise or how many will sell them when the market rise. This is equivalent to one month SIP hence gathers...

sreebhashyam

We had the Dividend story, now the interest part comes later as part of the policy. Interest rate cuts from the West dominated by Swiss, Canada, Danish and Europe. Russia is later in the day, and our own today. The expectation and interest is various, 1. incoming inflation (now that the elections are over the various prices rises are expected and arguably...

sreebhashyam

Turning out to be a week of action, one can read it as weak, if you have not expected this much drama from the market. It all happens and happening in front of us. Camera, Action and Cut. When it comes to cut, it started with Swiss, added the Candy (Candian Cut), followed by a Danish and topped with Euro Cut. Season of cuts? extrapolation to US? Remember, in...

sreebhashyam

2000 points up move, 4000 points down move, 2000 points up-move. Roller Coaster. It is stationary revolution. For sure, confidence in the short term is on the back foot, adhoc longs will get wipeout in the fall if any. While incremental rise will get its profit taking friend. No one would like to own, when there is absence of path what and how the new...

sreebhashyam

It is all in numbers, if you don't believe, you get Numb. From nothing has changed view to ROME is not built in a day, from there, all is lost in a day, who moved my cheese, these were the news or experience one is sharing depending on which time frame, what commitment, what understanding, what faith one holds. Leverage either financial or psychological pulls...

sreebhashyam

Never you see this Index so sensitive to the political news than yesterday. 1. We moved sharply higher post the RBI dividend story. 2. We move sharply lower yesterday political events. 3. This index is known for reversing at the extremes. 4. Does this mean we will reverse this time too. The answer lies, is the market still respecting the demand and supply...

sreebhashyam

The inevitable happens, markets stunned. We have been saying and writing, the market the moves excess ahead of the events always correct viciously than one can digest. This time is no different. The diagonal or the Wedge appearing as end of Wave 5 is sure to displace many, not talk of wedge and edge in the political din. More so when the structure in the wave 5...

sreebhashyam

It is clear, there is no debate on open, there is no debate on how much it will open. Cues are there. The question is how much it can stretch. What is the expiry led moves that one can see here. 1. This index held its never in the fall relative to any other sector, hence the more weightage will come from here. How much, non-index stocks move or not one has to...

sreebhashyam

Those who watched our link last week will have some idea, for others the daily readings, will help to some extent. Markets move not on news, but the reaction of the participants to the news. 1. Buy the rumour sell the facts. 2. Good news is bad news. 3. Bad news is good news 4. Buy the fear sell the hope. 5. Sell the strength, buy the weakness. The way one...