Continued Bullish Outlook for ETC based on Elliot Wave
I was lucky enough to get in on ETC around 42 dollars before the most recent price action drove the price upwards of 150 USD. After such a large and fast movement I was very skeptical of continued movement upward and exited the trade yesterday thinking the correction would be more severe. However, after a more detailed looked at the wave structures I think there is a good chance we see more upward movement. I welcome any feedback on the idea.
To get the full context of the coin movement I started off on the day chart to look for signs of the highest degree wave sequence. I denoted the highest degree with the blue numbered curve, and simply used boxes for highlight lower degree impulses.
I believe the price action spanning from Dec to April to be the first impulse of the higher degree movement--completing waves 1 and 2. I 3 of the minor impulses with the green boxes. There could be more going back further, but adding them does not effect the fib extensions. So, they were left out for chart clarity. Additionally, using the red trend line I marked the recent price action leading up to the correction yesterday. I believe this to be a minor impulse within the major wave 3 structure.
You can see this below:
Next, I zoomed on on the recent price action on the 15m chart to take a look at the inner wave movement. I've marked what I believe to be the first minor impulse of wave 3 with the reddish numbered line. You can see that the impulse that started around the 26th of April up to now is also clearly defined by inner waves. The correction yesterday was likely 3 cycle correction following wave 3. See the chart below with the validation level marked.
Following that correction, we now appear to be moving into a leading diagonally extended wave 5 (extension type 5-3-5-3-5) Here is a closer look at that structure on the 5m below:
Below is the fib extension for the wave 5 magnitude taken to be the inverse of wave 4 correction. If wave 5 is in fact extended the magnitude may be greater:
From looking at the run up of other coins it seems like wave 3 is typically made of 3 impulses, which would imply this to be the first of two more. So this could be the start of a longer bull run for ETC. However, I cant say for sure so I will take profits within the fib extension of wave 5 to be safe ...
or lose a lot of money if I'm wrong :)
Below is a high level chart showing this:
Please let me know any thoughts, especially if I sound like an idiot.
To get the full context of the coin movement I started off on the day chart to look for signs of the highest degree wave sequence. I denoted the highest degree with the blue numbered curve, and simply used boxes for highlight lower degree impulses.
I believe the price action spanning from Dec to April to be the first impulse of the higher degree movement--completing waves 1 and 2. I 3 of the minor impulses with the green boxes. There could be more going back further, but adding them does not effect the fib extensions. So, they were left out for chart clarity. Additionally, using the red trend line I marked the recent price action leading up to the correction yesterday. I believe this to be a minor impulse within the major wave 3 structure.
You can see this below:
Next, I zoomed on on the recent price action on the 15m chart to take a look at the inner wave movement. I've marked what I believe to be the first minor impulse of wave 3 with the reddish numbered line. You can see that the impulse that started around the 26th of April up to now is also clearly defined by inner waves. The correction yesterday was likely 3 cycle correction following wave 3. See the chart below with the validation level marked.
Following that correction, we now appear to be moving into a leading diagonally extended wave 5 (extension type 5-3-5-3-5) Here is a closer look at that structure on the 5m below:
Below is the fib extension for the wave 5 magnitude taken to be the inverse of wave 4 correction. If wave 5 is in fact extended the magnitude may be greater:
From looking at the run up of other coins it seems like wave 3 is typically made of 3 impulses, which would imply this to be the first of two more. So this could be the start of a longer bull run for ETC. However, I cant say for sure so I will take profits within the fib extension of wave 5 to be safe ...
or lose a lot of money if I'm wrong :)
Below is a high level chart showing this:
Please let me know any thoughts, especially if I sound like an idiot.
Comment:
ETC set off my alerts for the downward correction. After looking at the wave it looks like a typical 5-3-5 zigzag correction. I marked both 3 step correction waves and inner impulses, and the fib extension from the magnitude of wave A is shown with the trend lines.
There does seem to be some support at the 130 mark, but if that is dropped the session volume makes it look like the price will catch somewhere around $100 USD at the 1 fib.
There does seem to be some support at the 130 mark, but if that is dropped the session volume makes it look like the price will catch somewhere around $100 USD at the 1 fib.
Comment:
Now that the full magnitude of wave A has been shown I think ETC is likely headed for a larger correction. There are support nodes around 118,90 and 61. The 90 node corresponds with the .618 fib and could be a likely spot for it to catch at.
I took profit at the top of wave B, and won't be re-entering unless the technicals change dramatically before consolidation.
I took profit at the top of wave B, and won't be re-entering unless the technicals change dramatically before consolidation.
I've set alerts at the high of wave 3 and wave 5. I will only re-enter of the wave 5 high is broken, and think if the price falls below wave 3 high, there is a significant correction coming.