jvrfxalerts

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Hi traders. I exited my EUR/USD short positions for a modest profit. The price is currently touching the the 7 and 200 MA's at 1.0826/4 with the 10 and 100 MA's just below at 1.0811/12. While I am still bearish EUR/USD, there won't be any definitive outcome until USD GDP and PCE have printed and the finale for the week, EUR CPI. I am considering going long between...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hello Traders. This is a follow up to IDEA 18. www.tradingview.com The massive daily doji candle up to 1.0888 makes perfect sense. It retested the 1/24/24 and 1/26/24 daily closes and did not retest the 1.0897 daily close of 1/19/24. I am still short and on the weekly chart, one can see the power of the Fibonacci extension in play. The weekly close is just below...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hi traders. This week is definitely not short on developments for the EUR/USD pair. I believe the USD is poised for more gains after today's FOMC January 2024 meeting minutes. The message was clear: the Federal Reserve is very concerned about cutting rates too soon. One may also pose the question whether we may see another wave of inflation with the current...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hi traders. my short is in place, albeit underwater. The EuroZone 4th quarter wage index dropped from 4.7-4.5% which gives the ECB some wiggle room before cutting rates. Christine Lagarde pointed to wage inflation as a big concern guiding the rate outlook. I believe she indicated that the Q1 of 2024 will bring them closer to a rate cut or not. This of course...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hi fellow traders. With HOT USD CPI and PPI numbers in the rear view mirror, the FOMC minutes from the January will be the highlight this week. It will provide more insight into their individual though processes. However, I do not see any fundamental reason for the downtrend NOT to continue. As mentioned in IDEA 16, I am short at 1.0790 and price exceeded the two...

jvrfxalerts

FOMC Chairman Powell has been clear in his communication that a rate cut is not on the table for March. Where to from here for EUR/USD? The pair has found support and has completed a (sloppy) head and shoulders formation with a double bottom at 1.0723. The weekly uptrend line has been broken but wait for the weekly close to determine direction. Immediate...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

I closed my EUR/USD short for an almost 100 pip profit. www.tradingview.com Price is currently at support of the weekly breakout at 11/13/23. Support is also at the MA10 and the EMA . The 5 minute chart has stabilized with the lower Bollinger band straightening out. Fundamentally, there is an expectation for an increase in the CPI print from 2.4 to 2.9%. The...

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I shorted EUR/USD after an 2 hour close below 1.1012(weekly close 12/18/23) with a tight stop at 1.1050. While that level has not been retested on the daily or weekly charts, the subsequent weekly candles have formed an evening star. Support at the uptrend line is at 1.0696. A break and close(pick your own time frame comfort level) could drop price to the MA100...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Price is right at 100 SMA. Buy with stop below 1.0911. USD retail sales coming up soon and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders. I apologize for the skeleton idea from yesterday. Time was tight but I wanted to share ASAP. I have chosen three USD related asset classes to compare and also to support my EUR/USD long ideas. USD 10Y bond has already put in a shooting star on the daily chart and is currently on track to close the week a touch below the 4.335% high from October...

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USD is at resistance levels on these three asset classes.

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I have added to my long EUR/USD position from 1.0930. Price is at support on the monthly chart and at a minor fib. The uptrend is intact until there is a daily close below 1.0835

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In my opinion, an excellent buying opportunity for EUR/USD. Price has broken above the 4h downtrend line and is currently testing the intersection of up and downtrend line. Horizontal support on daily chart is being tested and so is the weekly uptrend line. Good luck.

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Speculative trade but sell EUR/USD now at 1.1010 with stop at 1.1040

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EUR/USD reversed from the 0.618 Fib (1.2349-0.9536) downtrend at 1.1275 and subsequently closed below the broken uptrend line. It bounced decisively from the 6/26/23 weekly close at 1.0911 and formed a weekly doji candle in the process. 8/4/23 NFP print has sent it higher to 1.1042 but on the 4h chart the downtrend line is still in place at the time of writing....

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I am republishing this chart with no changes. A EUR/USD buy at 1.0575 would be an excellent entry point with invalidation below 1.0483

jvrfxalerts Updated 

The CPI print for USD and EURO turned out to be a non event since both prints were fairly benign. A downtick in USD CPI and a slight increase in EURO core CPI despite the decrease in the headline print which includes food and energy. The consecutive daily open/close range of 1.0842-1.1904 confirms the indecision. EUR/USD has been treading water below the 50% fib...

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USD is positive. A morning star on DXY. A morning star-ish on US 10Y but definitely reversing up. Gold has a triple top in place. EUR/USD is reversing down from downtrend line. S&P 500 has touched resistance and is reversing down at the time of writing. And NASDAQ is also negative on the day so far. I don't know what the catalyst is for this but the VIX is also...