those bounces are to spread out, if we lose 40k support and enter 20k area we will not see 100k any time soon
shelby3
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@JasonValice, agreed we will not see 100k until 2023 after 8k due to Tether devastation. I do posit a frantic Tether-driven, bull trap bounce from 26k to $60 – 85k before the Tether collapse. Click following charts to read my more detailed explanations. Nearly nobody is aware of the ANYONECANSPEND attack that I posit will destroy the cryptocosm in 2023 after the ~$200+k peak. Googling the term will bring you to blogs written by individuals who do not understand the game theory:
JasonValice
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@shelby3, dude this is BTC/USD not BTC/USDT why u bringing up Tether? like I wasn't agreeing with your short because I'm not short on BTC right now. I was just saying that in the event it goes below 40k support, so much stop loss and people will lose faith and BTC will continue to crash lower than 20k, 100k wouldn't even come as soon as 2023 because we would be in a steady bear market for a couple years after that. So just be careful what you wish for dude. Cause you will be waiting till 2025 to make crypto profits again. Everyone would stop trusting crypto since the market is all emotionally fueled especially these newbies retail investors who always claim "to the moon" with everything.
shelby3
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@JasonValice, if Tether disappears it will take down the entire cryptocosm and all trading pairs. Jason I’ve been in this space since early 2013, and I have been correct many, many times. I’ve been wrong a few times also, but I am often correct about the major inflection points. I didn’t imply you were agreeing with my short. I am also not implying that you thought I was thinking you were agreeing with my short. All I did was agree that if Bitcoin’s bull market is interrupted severely then we will not see an immediate resumption to 100k. However, I also pointed you to read my follow-up detailed explanations by clicking the charts I shared. I have explained there my reasoning for why this is not as simple as a bull cycle versus a cryptowinter. I’m positing that we have a combination of bull cycle and cryptowinter simultaneously and the volatility will go insane with higher highs and lower lows. And I think the next bull trap after declining to 26k, will only be back up to $60 – 85k by Spring. Then the scorched earth of a failed Tether along with the Fed crashing the economy with QE tapering, could crash Bitcoin to $8 – 18k by summer 2022. Yes most weak hands capitulate as they also did in March 2020. But then I posit we will have an insane rally to $200+k by roughly Q1 2023. So I am disagreeing with the thesis that it must be a cryptowinter if the price declines to 8k. I think macro environment has qualitatively changed. For one the intentional and diabolical Great Reset is underway which is what caused the March 2020 crash. And they are planning another one for 2022. Mark my word. They need it in order to enact the stimulus boondoggle. And also we have the posited split of Bitcoin back into the legacy addresses and all the Core addresses to be donated to the miners taken right out everyone’s wallets without their permission. Stay tuned because you will probably be entirely bewildered if I am correct.
If 40k support is lost, it may not decline all the way to 20k, because that is what the majority would expect and the majority must always be wrong. There is a spike of VPVR volume in the $25 – 26k range and my T/A also points to that as a probable level that the posited crash would bounce from.
Bouncing from 26k would keep the FOMO hopium alive for one more bull trap before the slaughtering of all the pigs by pulling the Tether rug. Of course breaking below 20k in a Tether collapse would cause massive panic.
JasonValice
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@shelby3, I don't agree with the Tether thing, first off it's not going anywhere anytime soon, secondly if it does end up disappering it won't affect the market as much as people think. It's just like the scare of the China ban and everyone thought crypto would crash significantly if a whole country as big as China banned it. They then did actually ban crypto and the market didn't even budge. All this speculative hype over events need to stop, stop relying on emotions when investing - that is when you lose money.
shelby3
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@JasonValice, There’s no emotions in my analysis of this issue. I also didn’t expect the China ban on mining to permanently crater the Bitcoin price although it did ostensibly cause a drop from ~65K to ~29k. That’s no small drop, contrary to you’re fictional, nonsense claim about “the market didn’t even budge.” I also don’t expect a Tether destruction to permanently crater the Bitcoin price. But I do think you’re underestimating the impact a Tether default would have on the crypto market. The problem is that the crypto market is highly leveraged (e.g. DeFi) and a Tether pin prick would set off cascading dominoes. You have even admitted that a break below ~40k would set off capitulation and a break below ~30k would ignite fear of 20k causing more panic.
Also based on your replies it seems you may not be aware that Tether is probably insolvent as they apparently hold so much of their reserves as Chinese commercial paper which is defaulting as we speak. And Senator Lummis and others are clamoring for regulations on stable coins to force them to declare their reserves. Biden is pushing for a comprehensive regulation of crypto, so it is quite plausible that Tether might be forced into a default by forced transparency.
Note I’m not expecting a Tether default until perhaps late Spring or summer 2022. The gears of government move slowly.
Also you seem to be ignorant about the big picture what is really going on with Bitcoin. I suggest you read all my replies in the comments on my post “Cryptopocalypse delayed until 2023?”.
JasonValice
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@shelby3, I see you are absolutely delusional by think it dropped from 65k to 29k when the China ban was September 24th dude you don't even research you just make stuff up. I understand now that you are just a troll at this point
shelby3
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@JasonValice, your autistic handicap is not my fault. China banned Bitcoin mining in June. And don’t tell me that nobody had advance information on that, as if the CCP would not trade on their insider information.
shelby3
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@JasonValice, Elliot Wave theory may support my outlook: