TechDev is applying years of gold in 1970s to months of BTC.
His Fibonacci analyses aren’t even wrong but he’s ostensibly missing that 1) in 2017 volume was increasing and 1.272 low was before 1.618 peak, unlike 2013 & 2021 (note on BNC chart 2013 volume was decreasing), 2) 2013 correction 1.16 which would be ~$26k, 3) in 2012 Fib 0.5 was backtested after backtesting 0.236, so backtest to $8k still technically possible, 4) in 2012–13 never dropped below Fib 0.5 but did in 2020, thus may drop below 1.16 in 2022.
His Fibonacci analyses aren’t even wrong but he’s ostensibly missing that 1) in 2017 volume was increasing and 1.272 low was before 1.618 peak, unlike 2013 & 2021 (note on BNC chart 2013 volume was decreasing), 2) 2013 correction 1.16 which would be ~$26k, 3) in 2012 Fib 0.5 was backtested after backtesting 0.236, so backtest to $8k still technically possible, 4) in 2012–13 never dropped below Fib 0.5 but did in 2020, thus may drop below 1.16 in 2022.
Comment:
The macro situation has changed. March 2020 is a repeating new normal, not an aberration.
