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*Using Weekly Chart*
Consensio: P < M MA < S MA < L MA
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel Horizontals: S: $3,483 | R: $3,760 Trendline: Testing bear trendline that starts at the ATH | Parabolic SAR: $4,975 Futures Curve: Backwardation with 4.19% spread BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be creating higher low Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1171% TD’ Sequential: R2 = R1 Ichimoku Cloud: Watch for resistance from the Tenkan-Sen at $3,774 Relative Strength Index: At 35 Average Directional Index: At 33 with -DI > +DI. Strong signal that we are only half way through this sell off that started from $6,000 Price Action: 24h: -4.2% | 14d: -12.1% | 30d: -8.3% Bollinger Bands: Recently tested bottom band. MA at $5,046 Stochastic Oscillator: Recrossed bearish < 20.
Summary: The Average Directional Index is very interesting. It is my strongest indication that we will get another leg down from here. The Visible Range Volume Range is painting a very interesting picture. Gap's in volume are highly likely to get filled, at one point or another. Both of my most likely outcomes would do just that:
A) Bounce to $5,200 - $5,800 before selling off to $1,000 - $1,400 B) Breakdown $3,000 support, capitulate to $1,000 - $1,400 and then get a massive V bottom type of bounce to $5,200 - $5,800
My strongest indication that we will move up from here is the backwardation in the futures curve that saw it's spread widen during this last little move down.
Comment
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No time for the Daily Posts today. Tyler Jenks has asked me to prepare some charts for the workshop that he is presenting in Vegas this weekend. It may be a few days before I can do another update. Cheers!
This broader view with the volume gaps is enlightening. It seems that if your "Outcome A" occurs then a retest of the very strong downtrend line would have to fail to then fill the volume gap at the $1,000 - $1,400 level. That would be very bearish.
Sawcruhteez
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@DVemer, That would be a very bearish outcome. I see a lot of bearish outcomes from here and very few bullish scenarios. That is because we have not capitulated. There is still too much hope left in the market which is a main reason why I remain confident in my overall bearish disposition.
Leon_G
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i see similar outcome as you, also this 2 options with likely V-shape bottom at 1250$ or double bottom at 3150$ but I got another reasons for this. For the V-Shape bottom is a fast move needed and when I see your ADX indicator I get scared. Usually the ADX will bear in 3 waves with cross black line (volume) and red line first move. this is the weekly chart you show and that is really bad for bitcoin. actually the ADX shows the bear market just started and this weekly indicates it will last long. thinking 2018 was a bear market 2019 could become the real bear market. all in all not so good signs, I only hope for 6k retest before final loose of votality.
Sawcruhteez
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@Leon_G, I agree that the weekly ADX is very bearish. I also believe that this bear market will last longer than the 2014 bear market like you imply. My belief is primarily due to having far bigger gains in 2017 than in 2013.
Leon_G
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@Sawcruhteez, indeed and the reason why it will last longer are the future markets because now every "non-professional" trader can short without much effort
UnknownUnicorn4034582
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yeah i like your price targets; however i think its more likely to see a move up again (a bit of sideways first to get everyone impatient).. keep it stretched out and accumulate more ... is better than taking it down into capitulation
Sawcruhteez
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@volmaandcan, The scenario you outline might be better in the short term, but it would be worse in the medium to long term. If we go up again or continue sideways instead of capitulating then it will just be delaying the inevitable - which usually makes it worse. Failing to capitulate now does not mean we will avoid it all together. Furthermore a big capitulation leading to a V bottom is the only outcome that I see which could allow us to skip another 1 - 2 years of sideways like we saw in 2014.
Boon2
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BTCUSD H4 Correction up. Checkout the idea detail's and all the update's for the complete picture.